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    Pakistan’s New Leader, Shehbaz Sharif, Installed

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    Parliament’s election of Shehbaz Sharif for a second term follows a month of political turmoil. The new government faces economic troubles and questions of legitimacy.Pakistan’s newly elected Parliament approved Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister on Sunday, ushering in his second term in that role and capping weeks of upheaval — as well as setting into motion a government facing economic and political challenges that are likely to leave the country in turmoil for years to come.His selection also brings to a crossroads the role of Pakistan’s powerful military, which has long been seen as an invisible hand guiding the country’s politics and has previously engineered its election results. Analysts say that public confidence in Mr. Sharif’s government is low.“The government is being seen as foredoomed,” said Talat Hussain, a political analyst based in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.Mr. Sharif secured 201 votes in the national assembly, while his closest rival, Omar Ayub, a supporter of the imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan, got 92.Before the voting began, Mr. Sharif arrived in the main hall accompanied by his older brother, Nawaz, who was also elected as a member of the national assembly. The two brothers sat together in the front row, a reminder that the elder Sharif, himself a three-time prime minister, remains influential and is likely to wield power behind the scenes.The proceedings started with a loud protest in support of Mr. Khan. Several Khan supporters sat in front of the speaker’s dais to chant slogans; many others waved pictures of Mr. Khan, as they, too, shouted slogans in support of the cricket star turned politician.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      What Happens Next in Pakistan’s Politics?

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      As supporters of Imran Khan lodge complaints of vote rigging in hopes of increasing their lead, his opponents are jockeying to form a government.Imran Khan’s stunning performance in Pakistan’s national election has upended most traditional political forecasts in a country where leaders who run afoul of the powerful military rarely find electoral success.Supporters of Mr. Khan, the jailed former prime minister, are both electrified by the showing of candidates aligned with his party, who won the most seats in last week’s vote, and enraged by what they call blatant rigging and the possibility that other parties will ultimately lead the government.Here’s what to know about the uncertainty now hanging over Pakistan’s political system.What’s next for the government?Mr. Khan’s supporters are challenging the results of dozens of races in the country’s courts, and pressure is growing on Pakistan’s Election Commission to acknowledge the widely reported irregularities in the vote counting.Backers of Mr. Khan say they will hold peaceful protests outside election commission offices in constituencies where they contend the rigging took place. Protests have already erupted in several parts of the country, especially in the restive southwestern Baluchistan Province.As of midday Sunday, the Election Commission had not finalized the results from Thursday’s vote. Preliminary counts showed victories for 92 independents (primarily supporters of Mr. Khan, whose party was barred from running), with 77 seats going to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and 54 going to the third major party, the Pakistan People’s Party, or P.P.P.Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the P.M.L.N. party, speaking to his supporters in Lahore on Friday.Rahat Dar/EPA, via ShutterstockWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Imran Khan Makes Court Appearance and Chaos Breaks Out

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      Supporters of the former prime minister of Pakistan have repeatedly clashed this week with the security forces, keeping the country on edge. “Show you can fight,” he told supporters.Former Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan appeared at court on corruption charges on Saturday in Islamabad, the capital, in the latest turn of a standoff between his supporters and the authorities that had led to chaotic scenes of tear gas and clashing security lines outside his home earlier in the week.That showdown continued on Saturday morning, as Mr. Khan arrived at the court surrounded by throngs of his supporters, who clashed with the police outside the judicial complex. The court allowed Mr. Khan, who claimed he could not enter the judicial building because of the chaos outside, to register his appearance from inside his vehicle.Mr. Khan, who was removed from office in a parliamentary no-confidence vote in April, is facing dozens of court cases on charges that include terrorism and corruption. Several arrest warrants have been issued against him after he repeatedly refused to appear in court in Islamabad. The court hearing he attempted to join on Saturday involved accusations of illegally profiting from accepting state gifts, and of concealing his assets.The clashes this week, as the police tried to arrest Mr. Khan at his Lahore residence, were the latest show of political brinkmanship to play out on the streets in Pakistan, as clouds of tear gas mixed with angry crowds of Mr. Khan’s supporters that have camped out outside his home and effectively taken on the role of his personal body guards.The violent scenes offered a grim reminder of the state of politics in Pakistan, which has struggled with instability and military coups since its founding 75 years ago. The political scene has become a game of clashing dynasties that take turns falling in and out of favor with the country’s powerful military establishment, with the victors wielding the country’s justice system against their rivals.Since being ousted from power last year, Mr. Khan has led a powerful political campaign drawing tens of thousands to rallies across the country, demanding fresh elections.At the same time, the state has brought dozens of court cases against Mr. Khan. He and his supporters have characterized the accusations as a misuse of the justice system by the government of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and by the military in order to sideline Mr. Khan from politics. Pakistani political and military leaders have repeatedly denied those claims.The political tensions surrounding Mr. Khan came to a head in November, when the former prime minister was wounded during a political rally after an unidentified man opened fire on his convoy, in what aides have called an assassination attempt. Since then, Mr. Khan has been mostly ensconced at his residence in Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city, and has refused to appear in court in Islamabad.Fawad Chaudhry, a senior leader of Mr. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or P.T.I., said that the threat to Mr. Khan’s life makes court appearances much riskier, adding: “It is not humanly possible to make court appearances in such a vast number of cases.”Mr. Khan claims that the state has brought more than 86 court cases against him. Government officials say he is facing around 30 cases.Mr. Khan’s supporters clashing with the police outside his residence in Lahore on Tuesday.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe drama surrounding Mr. Khan seems to only have buoyed his popularity, analysts say, underscoring his unique ability to outmaneuver Pakistan’s typical playbook for sidelining political leaders who have fallen out of favor with the country’s powerful military.On Tuesday, police officers, wearing white helmets and holding shields, lined up outside Mr. Khan’s residence in Lahore to execute an arrest warrant for the former prime minister for failing to appear in court. The police used baton charges and tear gas canisters to scatter the members and supporters of Khan’s political party during the lengthy fight, which lasted for hours and into the evening.Leaders of Mr. Khan’s political party took to social media to share footage of tear gas canisters landing on the lawn outside his drawing room. The video clips showed party workers throwing a canister back at police from across a nearby wall. In another video, party workers, holding sticks, were seen running for cover as tear gas clouds engulfed the driveway of Mr. Khan’s residence.As battles consumed the outskirts of his home, Mr. Khan made an impassioned plea to his supporters through a recorded video message, urging them to fight for their freedom and rights in the face of impending arrest by the police. Mr. Khan vowed to continue fighting as he exhorted his followers to show that they could stand up for their rights even in his absence.“If they send me to jail, or if I am killed, you have to show you can fight without me as well,” Mr. Khan said in the video.Mr. Khan has been criticized by his opponents for attempting to avoid arrest and refusing to appear in court. But the violent showdown outside his home drew widespread criticism.“I am deeply saddened by today’s events. Unhealthy revenge politics,” Arif Alvi, Pakistan’s president and a member of Mr. Khan’s political party, tweeted on Tuesday, adding that it showed “poor priorities” of a government “that should focus on economic misery of the people.”After those clashes, Mr. Khan agreed to appear in court on Saturday, traveling early that morning from his home in Lahore to Islamabad in a convoy flanked by large crowds.As he made the hourslong trip, the police returned to his Lahore residence and dismantled the barriers and sandbag bunkers erected outside his home. Then another clash broke out: The police say that they were shot at and that petrol bombs were thrown at them. Sixty-one people were arrested, said Amir Mir, the interim information minister of Punjab Province.Some had hoped that Mr. Khan’s appearance in court on Saturday would defuse the tension that had built up over the past week. But the clashes in Lahore and outside the courtroom in Islamabad only added to the sense of chaos that has seized Pakistan in recent months.As the standoff drags on, Mr. Khan’s ability to parlay attempts to sideline him into political popularity has upended the Pakistani political sphere, analysts say, and shaken the wide-held belief that the military establishment — long seen as the invisible hand guiding politics — has a firm grasp on the wheel.“If Pakistan still had a functional establishment like what we have always imagined, Imran Khan would either already be prime minister or firmly in jail and sidelined from politics,” said Adil Najam, a professor at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies and an expert on Pakistani politics, referring to the military as the establishment, as it is popularly known in Pakistan. “The establishment has imploded — its assumed authority has gone away.” More

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      Why Imran Khan Can’t Outplay Pakistan’s Military

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      Imran Khan is a cornered tiger.After surviving an assassination attempt on Nov. 3 while leading a protest march, Mr. Khan accused Shehbaz Sharif, who succeeded him as prime minister of Pakistan, Rana Sanaullah, the interior minister, and a third man of conspiring to assassinate him. In a significant breach in civil-military relations, Mr. Khan claimed that the third man was a major general in the Inter-Services Intelligence, the dreaded spy agency of Pakistan’s military, which supported his own rise to power.The saga of Mr. Khan’s embrace of the military and his fallout and confrontation with the generals is a reminder of the limits of power exercised by civilian politicians in Pakistan, where the military has ruled directly for 33 years and always been the power behind the throne.Mr. Khan took office as prime minister in August 2018 and was deposed by a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April of this year. Rakishly handsome, utterly vain and stubborn at 70, Mr. Khan hasn’t reconciled with his loss of power.For several months now he has been discrediting the democratic process, blaming his ouster on an American-led foreign conspiracy and attacking Mr. Sharif’s government as an “imported government” full of “thieves.” He commenced on Oct. 28 an energetic roadshow across Pakistan demanding immediate national elections, which aren’t due for a year.Mr. Khan’s own legend, the story of the cricket captain of steely determination who won his greatest sporting victory — the 1992 Cricket World Cup — with a team almost everybody wrote off, plays a big role in how he persists in politics. He had asked his team to play like a “cornered tiger,” and they ferociously fought their way to victory.In politics, Mr. Khan’s legend and grit weren’t enough. He founded the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice), or the P.T.I., in 1996 and spent a decade and a half charging quixotically at electoral windmills, barely managing to win a single seat in Pakistan’s 342-member National Assembly.Many Pakistani analysts believe the military saw that Mr. Khan’s rise would be beneficial in reducing the dominance of the two major political parties, which revolved in and out of power: former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (inherited by her widower and her son after her death) and the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).By the early 2010s, Mr. Khan aligned with Pakistan’s military and welcomed power brokers from older political parties into his. He reinvented himself into a populist rallying against corruption and misrule, promising a New Pakistan — a welfare state inspired by the early days of Islam. And he raged against American drone war in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province, earlier known as the North-West Frontier Province, and the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.He emerged as a political force after the general elections of 2013. His party won the third largest number of seats, but Nawaz Sharif got the largest number of votes and formed the government. Three years later, in 2016, Nawaz Sharif — the older brother of the current prime minister — fell out with the military over national security policy and the military began to undermine him.Since shortly after the birth of Pakistan in 1947, the generals have ensured the removal of intransigent politicians attempting to challenge the military either with a coup or with facilitating the election of obedient, chosen ones.Mr. Khan played his role by ferociously accusing the older Mr. Sharif and his family of corruption and seeking his removal — not through elections but through judicial investigations and prosecution. After Mr. Sharif’s dismissal on corruption charges in 2017, a pliable judiciary disqualified him from holding public office and imprisoned him for hiding assets and not being “honest” despite no convincing evidence that he abused his office for personal gain.In the 2018 elections, Mr. Khan’s party was seen as the military’s favorite. Independent press was gagged, and there were allegations of rigging and “copious evidence” that Pakistan’s military interfered to help Mr. Khan win. In his first three years in office, Mr. Khan spoke gleefully about being on the “same page” with the Pakistan Army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, and helped him with a second three-year term as the army chief.Mr. Khan’s tenure was defined by a disregard for civil liberties and independent press, the hounding of his opponents and ignoring procedures of parliamentary democracy. He failed to improve the economy, inflation rose and the International Monetary Fund halted funding after his government refused to stick to its commitments.His foreign policy didn’t fare any better. Pakistan’s most important relations, with the United States, Saudi Arabia and China, remained icy during his tenure. President Biden didn’t even make a customary phone call to Mr. Khan after the start of his term. Projects in the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor remained more or less stalled.In February 2019, Mr. Khan welcomed the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman on his first visit outside the Middle East after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. In September 2019, Mr. Khan announced plans to team up with Malaysia and Turkey — Prince Mohammed’s nemesis after the Khashoggi murder — to set up a television network to counter Islamophobia and hold a summit of leaders of Muslim countries in Malaysia in December. The plans soured the relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major financial backer, forcing Mr. Khan to pull out.Apart from his failures of governance, in October 2021, Mr. Khan committed the cardinal sin of interfering in the military’s personnel decisions. He sought to prevent the appointment of a new chief for the I.S.I., as Mr. Khan reportedly favored the continuation of the incumbent spy chief, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed.The military establishment zealously guards its prerogative to promote and post officers at every level. General Bajwa replaced General Hameed with a new spy chief. Mr. Khan, who as prime minister appointed the spy chief in consultation with the army chief, showed his displeasure by taking three long weeks before notifying the appointment.Pakistani press was gripped with feverish speculation that Mr. Khan wanted to appoint General Hameed as the army chief after General Bajwa’s upcoming retirement in late November 2022. Mr. Khan denied the rumors, but the damage was done. Mr. Khan and the army chief were not on the same page anymore. In March, in the lead-up to the vote of no confidence, a spokesman for General Bajwa publicly declared that the army has “nothing to do with politics.”Pakistan got the message: Mr. Khan might still be prime minister, but he was not under the protective canopy of the army and the intelligence services anymore. The coalition of opposition parties moved to oust him and Mr. Khan lost crucial allies and legislators of his own party. A vote of no confidence was moved in the national assembly.In April, Mr. Khan tried to avoid the confidence vote — which decides the fate of a government — by dissolving the national assembly, but the Supreme Court declared his actions unconstitutional and ordered the vote be held. Mr. Khan didn’t have a majority in parliament and was ousted.Mr. Sharif, the leader of the opposition coalition, took over as prime minister and moved briskly to repair long fractured ties with the military. And in a first, after Mr. Khan’s ouster, his supporters — urban youth and sections of the middle class — who have traditionally been strong supporters of Pakistan’s military, clashed with the police, vandalized property and tried to forcibly enter a military cantonment area.Mr. Khan has resumed his cry for immediate elections with the halo of a martyr. But he is quickly conceding that the military will always dominate Pakistan’s politics and told the newspaper The Dawn that “using their constructive power can get this country out of institutional collapse.”He has also dialed back his allegations of an American conspiracy behind his ouster, waking up to the importance the military attaches to its relationship with Washington. The new tack suggests that he is happy with military interference in politics as long as it is on his behalf.On Thursday Prime Minister Sharif appointed Lt. Gen Syed Asim Munir as the new army chief, who will take over after Gen. Bajwa retires on Tuesday. General Munir had clashed with Mr. Khan during his tenure as the I.S.I. chief in 2019.Yet Mr. Khan’s populist messaging is gaining wider traction. Pakistan’s economy is faltering. Inflation is higher than 25 percent. Recent floods have affected more than 30 million people, and caused damage and economic losses of around $30 billion. Pakistan needs stability and improved governance, but Mr. Khan’s ambitions are bound to increase political turmoil.Abbas Nasir is a columnist and former editor of the newspaper The Dawn in Pakistan.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Imran Khan’s Supporters Clash With Police in Pakistan After Gunman Attack

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      The former prime minister accused military and government officials of plotting the attack that wounded him as political violence welled up around Pakistan.ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Clashes broke out in cities across Pakistan on Friday, a day after a gunman wounded former Prime Minister Imran Khan at a rally.Mr. Khan’s supporters blocked major highways, set fires and clashed with the police, who responded with tear gas in one clash outside the capital, Islamabad. The violence broke out a day after Mr. Khan was shot in the legs on Thursday in Punjab Province as he was leading a political rally. One bystander was killed and several others were injured in the attack.The gunman was arrested immediately by the police, and a man identified as the suspect said in a police video leaked to the news media that he acted alone.On Friday, Mr. Khan made a video appearance from a hospital in Lahore. Sitting in a wheelchair and dressed in a blue hospital gown, Mr. Khan said he would resume his protest campaign for early national elections as soon as he recuperates.“I will be back on the roads as soon as I get well,” Mr. Khan said in a long address. He demanded the removal of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the country’s interior minister, and a senior army intelligence official, accusing the trio of hatching a conspiracy to assassinate him.Mr. Khan speaking at a news conference in a Lahore hospital on Friday.K.M. Chaudary/Associated PressPakistani officials deny Mr. Khan’s accusations and asserted that religious fanaticism was the motive of the attack on Mr. Khan. And the country’s powerful military apparatus condemned Mr. Khan’s claims, saying in a statement that “no one will be allowed to defame the institution or its soldiers with impunity.”Earlier in the day, furious protesters clashed with the police in several cities. A large number of his supporters tried to enter Islamabad from neighboring Rawalpindi and were stopped by heavy tear gas shelling from the capital’s police force. Officials said protesters set several vehicles and motorbikes on fire as clashes continued for several hours, lasting into the evening.“The current situation reflects a sharp deterioration of the quality of politics in Pakistan, and it seems headed toward more violence,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst based in Lahore.In Lahore, protesters tried to enter the Governor’s House, broke security cameras at the entrance and threw stones at the colonial-era building. Mr. Khan’s supporters also tried to enter the city’s military cantonment area, which houses military buildings and residential neighborhoods, but were stopped by the police.Clashes also erupted in some parts of the southern port city of Karachi, where at least 20 people were arrested when protesters blocked the main thoroughfare. Mr. Khan’s supporters also blocked the entrance of a highway in the northwestern city of Peshawar.Mr. Khan was removed from office after a no-confidence vote in the parliament earlier in April. He has blamed his ouster on a conspiracy by the United States, the country’s military and his political opponents. American officials and Pakistani military and government officials deny those accusations.Supporters of Mr. Khan throwing stones at police officers during a protest in Rawalpindi on Friday.Mohammad Ramiz/Associated PressSince his removal, Mr. Khan has made a stunning political comeback, winning several by-elections, and he has demanded early national elections. But the governing coalition led by Mr. Sharif has said it would not move the vote up from its scheduled spot in August next year.The police have yet to register a case or issue a preliminary report on the gun attack, which happened in Waziribad.In the police video, the suspect was identified as Naveed Ahmed, a laborer who said he was acting out of religious reasons.“I have no regret except that I was not able to kill Imran Khan,” Mr. Ahmed said, adding that he was enraged because Mr. Khan had portrayed himself as a prophet.Mr. Khan and his supporters and other political observers say Mr. Khan has never made such a claim.During the news briefing on Friday, Mr. Khan claimed that he had been aware since September of plots to attack him. And he called on the country’s army chief to take action against what he called “black sheep” within the security services. More

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      Imran Khan, Pakistan’s Former Leader, Appears in Court

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      The police were ordered not to arrest the former prime minister, who has been charged under Pakistan’s antiterrorism act, before a hearing set for next Wednesday.Former Prime Minister Imran Khan appeared in court in the Pakistani capital on Thursday after being charged under the country’s antiterrorism act, the latest step in an intensifying crackdown on Mr. Khan and his allies since he was removed from office in April.It was his first court appearance since being charged on Sunday, after giving a speech in which he threatened legal action against police officers and a judge involved in the recent arrest of one of his top aides.Mr. Khan made no public comment during his brief appearance Thursday before an antiterrorism court in Islamabad, where his bail bond was set at 100,000 rupees, or roughly $450. The court set the next hearing in the case for Wednesday and ordered the police not to arrest him before then.“Pakistan is being mocked all over the world,” Mr. Khan said outside the courthouse after the hearing. He said the government was afraid of his popularity, and that the case against him had “made Pakistan look like a banana republic.”Before the hearing, many in Pakistan had been worried about the possibility of violent unrest. A day earlier, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah had warned that if the court rejected Mr. Khan’s bail plea, the government would arrest him — a move that his supporters have said would cross a “red line.”The charges against Mr. Khan have been seen as an escalation of the monthslong clash between Pakistan’s current government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and its former leader, who has made a stunning political comeback in recent months.His court appearance was the latest twist in Mr. Khan’s political second act, since falling out with the country’s powerful military and being removed from office in a no-confidence vote.Supporters of Mr. Khan gathered outside his residence in Islamabad on Monday.Anjum Naveed/Associated PressIn recent months, Mr. Khan has drawn tens of thousands to his rallies, where he has doubled down on accusations that the United States and the country’s powerful military conspired to topple his government. His speeches have also tapped into Pakistanis’ growing frustration with the country’s economic downturn, which the current government has struggled to address.His message has resonated widely, and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, has won seats in provincial elections in two crucial regions.“I would say there is a soft revolution taking place in Pakistan,” Mr. Khan said in an hourlong interview with New York Times journalists on Wednesday. “I never thought in my life I would see this sort of thing happening in the country — people sort of spontaneously coming out without being led out by political parties.”But his growing popularity has also prompted a clampdown on Mr. Khan’s supporters and allies, in what is widely considered a coordinated campaign by the authorities to force him out of politics.Journalists considered “pro-Khan” have been harassed, intimidated and arrested by the authorities, he said. A top aide to Mr. Khan, Shahbaz Gill, was imprisoned after making anti-military remarks, and the television channel that broadcast them was forced off the air. Mr. Khan has accused the authorities of torturing Mr. Gill, who remains in custody. Government officials have denied the claim.In the interview on Wednesday, Mr. Khan went to lengths not to directly condemn the country’s powerful military, which has long served as the true power broker in Pakistani politics.Shahbaz Gill, center in blue shirt, an aide to Mr. Khan, at a court appearance on Monday. Mr. Khan has accused the authorities of torturing Mr. Gill, a claim the government has denied.Associated PressBut in toeing a careful line, Mr. Khan suggested the military establishment had played a role in the current crackdown, claiming that some officials involved in detaining Mr. Gill had said they were being “pushed from behind” — a common phrase in Pakistan referring to coming under military pressure.The Pakistani military has denied accusations that it has played any role in the recent clampdown, insisting the institution has adopted a “neutral” stance amid the political uncertainty. Military officials have also emphasized that the military is not involved with police cases and civilian courts.Mr. Khan’s lawyers claim that the case against him is little more than a sham. The Islamabad police charged Mr. Khan under a section of the country’s antiterrorism laws, and a police report stated that he had “terrorized and threatened top police officials and a respected female additional sessions judge” during the speech.“We won’t spare you,” Mr. Khan had said, addressing the officials.Mr. Khan has called for fresh elections. And he has repeatedly insisted that he hopes the country can avoid violent unrest even as political tensions build.“One thing I don’t want is violence,” he said. “That would not suit us; that would suit the guys who have been put in power, because the last thing they want are elections. For us, any violence or disruption would mean there won’t be an election.”But given widespread frustration over the economic crisis and a political scene that has been dominated for decades by often-corrupt family dynasties, many fear that any street action over Mr. Khan’s fate could easily spill into violent unrest.“There’s been this ratcheting up of the rhetoric, the instigation,” said Adil Najam, a professor at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies and an expert on Pakistani politics. “I cannot imagine a world where his arrest — if it happens — will go down quietly.” More

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      Imran Khan Dominates Punjab Vote, Deepening Pakistan Turmoil

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      Mr. Khan’s political party won 15 of the 20 seats in the country’s most populous province, which has often served as a bellwether for national politics.ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Less than four months after Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power in Pakistan, his party has won a sweeping victory in elections in the most populous province, proving that Mr. Khan remains a powerful force and adding to the political uncertainty that has embroiled the country since his defeat.Mr. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, on Sunday won 15 of the 20 seats contested in Punjab, a province that has often served as a bellwether for national politics.The province is home to more than half of Pakistan’s 200 million people and for years has been a political stronghold for the family of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who took over in April after Mr. Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote that shook Pakistan’s fragile democracy.The elections Sunday were seen as a litmus test for Mr. Sharif’s government, a coalition of several parties that has struggled to gain popular support amid a cratering economy and to compete with the political momentum Mr. Khan’s party, known as P.T.I., has gained on the campaign trail since his ouster.“The P.T.I. has demonstrated that it has mobilized real support in the wake of the vote of no-confidence against Khan, while the ruling coalition has hemorrhaged support,” said Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The ruling coalition will have to fundamentally rethink its strategy and approach and perform well on economic indicators to have a shot at the next general election.”In a series of rallies that have attracted tens of thousands of people in recent weeks, Mr. Khan has accused the United States and the country’s powerful military establishment of orchestrating a conspiracy to topple his government. American officials, Mr. Sharif and the military have denied those accusations.A polling station in Lahore, in Punjab Province, on Sunday.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut Mr. Khan’s message has resonated with people across the country, and the election results were widely viewed as a repudiation of the powerful military establishment and a reaction to the worsening economic conditions that have squeezed lower- and middle-income families.On Monday, Mr. Khan renewed his call for the government to hold general elections earlier than 2023, when they are currently scheduled. “The only way forward from here is to hold fair & free elections,” he said on Twitter. “Any other path will only lead to greater political uncertainty & further economic chaos.”Since taking office, Mr. Shehbaz’s government has had to walk a fine line balancing the tough measures needed to get the economy back on track with his party’s need to retain popular support ahead of the next general elections.Amid inflation that has reached its highest level in 14 years, Mr. Sharif has had to raise electricity rates, increase fuel prices and end government subsidies to revive a $6 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund. The bailout program was announced in 2019 and later suspended after Mr. Khan’s government failed to meet some of the loan conditions, like cutting energy subsidies.Last week, the I.M.F. and Pakistan’s government announced a staff-level agreement that paves the way for the disbursement of $1.17 billion to help avert a potential default. But the hugely unpopular economic measures to avoid default have spurred a public backlash against the ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, and proved a key factor in Mr. Khan’s success in the Punjab elections, analysts say.“Not all of this is Mr. Sharif’s fault,” Nusrat Javeed, a veteran journalist, and political analyst based in Islamabad, said in an interview. “His government is facing the brunt of an accumulated mess of all previous governments.”But for most voters, Mr. Javeed said, what matters is that since April, “long hours of power outages are back, petrol has gone out of reach, and electricity prices are constantly being increased.”Since his ouster, Mr. Khan has capitalized on that dissatisfaction as he embarked on a new campaign trail. In recent weeks, he has frequented TV talk shows and carried out an unrelenting social media campaign across Twitter, Facebook Live, YouTube, and Instagram Live.A market in Lahore. Inflation has reached its highest level in 14 years.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Khan has also accused the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, of meddling in the election process. During campaign speeches over the past few weeks, Mr. Khan would often claim that “Mr. X,” a code name he came up with for the provincial I.S.I. chief, was trying to rig the elections.On Twitter, P.T.I. supporters have heaped unprecedented criticism and ridicule at the army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who was once considered to be a Khan supporter. General Bajwa appeared to withdraw his support for Mr. Khan last year after the two disagreed over military appointments. Angry P.T.I. supporters, in Pakistan and out of the country, have accused General Bajwa of giving a nod to the change of government in April.The anti-military rhetoric is a distinct shift for Mr. Khan, who ascended the political ranks with the support of the country’s powerful military. His victory in the 2018 elections was attributed by many of his rivals to a back-room deal struck with the military establishment.“His anti-establishment stance, in particular, is notable,” said Ms. Afzal, the Brookings fellow. “It represents a departure for Khan, and also for his voter base.”Government officials said Mr. Khan’s victory on Sunday disproved his accusations of election rigging and military interference in the current political cycle.“This is the first election in history the transparency of which even the worst political opponents cannot point a finger at,” Marriyum Aurangzeb, the county’s information minister, said.Still, the electoral loss on Sunday has added pressure on the ruling coalition, which has struggled to find its bearing after coming to power in a precarious position.Security outside a polling station in Lahore on Sunday.Rahat Dar/EPA, via ShutterstockThe coalition frequently clashed before ousting Mr. Khan and has struggled to remain cohesive.There is a growing perception in the country that Mr. Sharif is unable to inspire popular support and lacks the charisma of his elder brother Nawaz Sharif, who served as prime minister three times, analysts say. The younger Sharif has a reputation for his administrative skills, while his brother was known for pulling large crowds onto the street and into the voting booth.And the government, which was chosen by Parliament after Mr. Khan’s ouster, has no electoral mandate and has faced mounting pressure to hold fresh general elections in the coming months.Mr. Sharif’s party “is left in a Catch-22 situation,” said Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. “If it hangs onto power in the center,” he said, “Shahbaz Sharif will be a lame duck prime minister, while early elections will be a political suicide.” More