Joe Biden appeared to be on the verge of victory in the US presidential election on Friday morning, passing Donald Trump in the vote tally in the key state of Pennsylvania.
Would a Pennsylvania win absolutely make Biden president-elect?
Yes, it would. A win in Pennsylvania would bring Biden to 284 electoral votes, beyond the 270 threshold needed to win. He would not need to win any further states, and he could even afford to lose Arizona (11 electoral votes), where the margin separating the candidates has narrowed after an early call in Biden’s favor.
Why hasn’t the race been called?
It might be called at any moment. At least one high-profile election decisions clearinghouse, Decisions Desk HQ, had already declared Biden to be president-elect. The thousands of votes remaining to be counted in Pennsylvania were coming from heavily Democratic areas, and Biden’s lead in the state was expected to grow.
The major television networks and the Associated Press, on whose decision desk the Guardian relies, were expected to declare victory for Biden after an anticipated growth in his lead in Pennsylvania to somewhere beyond half a percentage point.
Biden could be summarily declared president-elect at any moment.
“The Associated Press continues to count votes in the presidential election and has not declared a winner,” the news organization said at just after noon eastern time.
When will the race be called?
At the rate Pennsylvania has been counting, Biden is likely to grow a significant lead over the course of the day on Friday, and the race might be called at any time.
Does Trump still have a path?
Not really. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he loses the election. Trump is now behind in Pennsylvania, and the votes remaining to be counted come from areas where Biden has been getting 75% of the vote or better. The more votes are counted, the greater Biden’s lead becomes.
Can Trump do anything to stop this?
It’s an extreme long shot. The Trump campaign is pursuing lawsuits in multiple states in an attempt to have various batches of ballots thrown out. For example, Trump has joined a case before the supreme court that could potentially reverse a decision allowing ballots received after election day in Pennsylvania (but postmarked by election day) to be counted.
The problem for Trump is that most of the legal claims his team is advancing appear to be weak, and several have already been thrown out of court. Another problem for Trump: the total number of ballots challenged by his lawsuits does not appear to be anywhere close to large enough to flip the result in any state.
The Trump campaign has said it will formally request a recount in Wisconsin and may do so in other states, but recounts in major US elections rarely move the tally by more than a few hundred votes, not nearly enough to make a difference.
What other variables are in play?
The basic point to understand is that every last avenue to re-election for Trump has been pretty much closed off. But because it’s Trump, who appears ready to try anything to stay in power, the question is worth exploring.
The multi-stage nature of the electoral college, in which voters in each state pick a winner and then state legislatures appoint “electors” who cast 538 total ballots for president, could allow some opportunity for foul play, although it’s extremely unlikely.
There has been some wild talk among some Republicans about trying to get a Republican-controlled legislature in a state such as Pennsylvania to ignore the will of the voters and appoint a slate of electors that favors Trump instead of Biden. The Republican leaders of both chambers of the state legislature, however, have adamantly knocked down the idea.
Trump has loudly called on supporters to “defend” the election, and some have brought guns to rallies outside ballot-counting sites. It’s not clear how such tensions might develop as the realization of Trump’s probable loss sinks in.
The attorney general, William Barr, has been wholly offstage since before election day. It’s possible that Trump’s justice department could yet make some kind of coordinated legal play against the election.
But owing to the decentralized nature of US elections, that would be exceedingly difficult. Unlike in the 2000 election, when the entire race came down to one state, Florida, and a legal challenge by Republicans succeeded in halting a recount, this year there are multiple states contributing to a Biden victory and he does not need a recount to win.
Source: US Politics - theguardian.com
