Beto O’Rourke, a former congressman, Senate candidate and contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, will run for governor in Texas next year.

O’Rourke, 49, is seeking to take on Greg Abbott, the Republican governor who is pursuing a third term.

Abbott is seen as more vulnerable than previously, given demographic changes and events including the failure of much of the Texas power grid in very cold weather in February this year, which led to numerous deaths.

“I’m running for governor,” O’Rourke announced on Monday. “Together, we can push past the small and divisive politics that we see in Texas today – and get back to the big, bold vision that used to define Texas. A Texas big enough for all of us.”

Possible rivals include Matthew McConaughey, a Hollywood star who has flirted with a switch to politics.

A recent poll by the University of Texas and the Austin American-Statesman gave Abbott 46% of the vote to 37% for O’Rourke but also put Abbott’s job disapproval rating at 48%. In September, Quinnipiac University found that 50% of Texas voters did not think O’Rourke would do a good job as governor; 49% said the same for McConaughey.

In a statement, the Texas Democratic chair, Gilberto Hinojosa, said the party “welcomes Beto O’Rourke to the race for Texas governor. He has been a longtime champion for hard-working Texans and his announcement is another step towards driving out our failed governor.”

Juan Carlos Huerta, a professor of political science at Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, told the Guardian Abbott was “a formidable candidate” who had already “shown he can win statewide office” and “knows how to wield power”.

But Abbott has been slammed on both sides of the political divide over his management of Covid-19. Facing protests over public health measures from the right of his own party, he course-corrected by throwing Texas open to business and trying to ban mask mandates in schools – even though young children could not then be vaccinated.

Abbott has also used the legislature to shore up his conservative bona fides on issues like voting rights and abortion – a political calculation that may isolate some voters, Huerta said.

“Can he win?” Huerta said, of O’Rourke. “I think there are some issues that are out there that he can capitalise on.”

O’Rourke, from the border city of El Paso, can also call on a proven ground game to get out younger voters who trend Democratic but often have low turnout.

“Beto O’Rourke has shown he has an ability to mobilise voters and get people engaged in politics,” Huerta said. “That’s why I’m wondering, would he be able to find examples of things that Abbott did, actions he took, things he advocated for that he can make issues in the 2022 gubernatorial election?”

Democratic hopes of turning Texas blue, or at least purple, based on demographic changes involving increased Latino representation and liberals moving into the state, have repeatedly run up against hard political reality. The 2022 midterm elections may represent an even tougher task than usual, as Democrats face pushback against the Biden administration‘s first two years in office.

“If you go back, election after election, newspapers always write the headline, ‘Will this be the election that Texas turns blue?’ said Emily M Farris, an associate professor of political science at Texas Christian University. “And it hasn’t happened yet.”

O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate run, against Ted Cruz, was a case in point. The former congressman ran strongly but still fell short against a relatively unpopular Republican.

O’Rourke then ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, starting brightly but flaming out amid missteps over media coverage and, some analysts said, a strong position on gun control that was at odds with voters in his home state.

O’Rourke’s presidential bid left questions about whether he still wanted to run in Texas, Farris said. But O’Rourke has re-established himself in Lone Star politics through work for voter registration and activism amid the winter storm. More recently, O’Rourke stood alongside Texas Democrats to oppose a restrictive voting law introduced by state Republicans.

Speaking to the Texas Tribune in an interview to accompany his announcement for governor, O’Rourke also highlighted Texas Republicans’ introduction of one of the strictest and most controversial anti-abortion laws.

O’Rourke is also a strong fundraiser, one of few Democrats who may be able to compete with Abbott’s massive war chest, which stood at $55m earlier this year.

Hinojosa pointed to the Senate campaign in 2018, when he said “Beto rallied Texans by the millions – and showed the entire world that the roots of change run through Texas”.

Abbott and O’Rourke have effectively been campaigning against each other already, Farris said. From here, Farris said, Abbott would probably try to draw attention to O’Rourke’s controversial comments on guns while O’Rourke was likely to zero in on the power grid failure last February.

“I think those are gonna be at least what the two campaigns try to focus on,” she said.

In his announcement video, O’Rourke said Abbott “doesn’t trust women to make their healthcare decisions, doesn’t trust police chiefs when they tell him not to sign the permit-less carry bill into law, he doesn’t trust voters so he changes the rules of our elections, and he doesn’t trust local communities” to make their own rules on Covid.

Speaking to the Tribune, he said: “I’m running to serve the people of Texas and I want to make sure that we have a governor that serves everyone, helps to bring this state together to do the really big things before us and get past the small, divisive politics and policies of Greg Abbott. It is time for change.”