Arizona’s Democratic senator Mark Kelly frequently consults his “Latino kitchen cabinet”. In south Texas, the Democratic House candidate Michelle Vallejo hosted a neighbourhood quinceañera. And in Georgia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams appeared on stage at La Raza’s Fiesta Mexicana. Across battleground states this midterm cycle, Democrats are urgently working to engage and mobilize Hispanic voters.

Their push comes two years after Donald Trump made surprising but substantial inroads with Latinos despite his defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. Democrats started to fear their party was losing its hold on a historically reliable cohort, while Republicans became hopeful.

Now Democrats and Republicans are engaged anew in a pitched – and expensive – political battle for Hispanic voters, an electorate both parties see as critical not only to their chances this November but also to their electoral hopes in the future.

Latino voters are a significant part of the electorate in battleground states likely to decide control of the US Senate, including Arizona, Nevada and even Georgia. They also form a powerful cohort in districts with highly competitive House races across California, Texas and Florida.

“Latinos get to decide the future of these states, which means they get to decide the future of our entire country with their vote,” said Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of the progressive youth voting group, NextGen America.

That wasn’t always the case. In 1970, just 5% of the US population was Hispanic. But now, they represent nearly one in five Americans. In the last decade, Latinos accounted for 52% of the nation’s population growth.

They also make up one of the largest and fastest-growing parts of the electorate. Latino voters cast roughly 16m votes in 2020, accounting for more than 10% of the total vote share.

Most Hispanic voters – 56% – say they plan to vote for Democrats in November, compared with 32% for Republicans, a New York Times/Siena College poll found. But the survey showed Democrats’ support was weaker than in previous years, primarily over economic concerns.

Similarly, a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll found Democratic support among Latino voters lagged behind the 2018 level.

The economy and rising cost of living is by far the top issue for Latinos this year, yet the Times/Siena poll indicated that they are evenly split over which party they agree more with. And after the US supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, several surveys – including the Post/Ipsos poll – have found that abortion rights are now also among the top voting issue for Latinos.

“What we’re seeing here is Latino voters very much concerned about their quality of life as they consider who they’re going to vote for and how they’re going to vote,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund (Naleo), which has commissioned a tracking poll of Latino voters this cycle.

‘Win enough’

Like the rest of the country, Latinos are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and divided over Joe Biden’s handling of the economy. Republicans see that as an opening to peel away disaffected Latino voters.

“Republicans are not going to win the Hispanic vote but they don’t need to,” said Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican strategist who co-hosts the Latino Vote podcast. “They’re just trying to win enough at the margins to win statewide contests.”

Madrid says neither party has an obvious grip on the future of the Latino electorate. He argues that Latinos’ preference for Democrats in the past has been driven by their opposition to Republicans’ embrace of hardline anti-immigrant policies – not loyalty to the Democratic party.

Younger voters tend to be more ambivalent about party politics. And Latino voters are young, and they are getting younger. It is estimated that each year 1 million US-born Latinos turn 18 and become eligible to vote.

“The party that is able to capture the hearts and minds and loyalty of a multi-ethnic working class will be the dominant party of the next generation,” Madrid said.

Hoping to capitalize on the gains they made in 2020, Republicans have ramped up their outreach to Latino voters. They celebrated victories by Republican Latinas like Mayra Flores in Texas. And in battleground states across the country, the Republican National Committee has invested millions in community outreach centers targeting Latinos, along with Black voters and Asian Americans.

Those efforts are bolstered by the work of groups like the Libre Initiative. For the past decade, Libre – an arm of the Koch family’s Americans for Prosperity – has worked to build support for conservative economic principles in Hispanic communities.

The Libre Initiative’s president, Daniel Garza, said they are playing a long game, investing in states where the Latino population is still relatively small but growing: Georgia, Virginia, Wisconsin, even Arkansas. The organization has helped Latinos learn English, get driving licences and even attain high-school equivalency degrees.

“The end game is not electing politicians,” Garza said. “It’s not even policy. The idea is for Latinos to become the ‘vanguard of the kinds of free market policies that allow waves of poor immigrants to achieve the American dream.’”

A historic underinvestment

For years, Latino Democratic leaders and strategists have warned the party that it needs to invest more money in outreach, hire Latino staff and engage voters on issues beyond immigration.

Democrats have indeed spent more than $54m in elections ads on Spanish-language TV and radio stations since the beginning of 2021 as compared to $19m from Republicans, according to the ad-tracking service AdImpact. Yet advocates argue that more can be done.

“The fact is that we need a lot more resources, coming in early so that we can do the appropriate work needed to reach out to the Latino community, and especially young voters,” said Lizet Ocampo, executive director of Voto Latino, an online voter registration organization.

Ocampo said there have been improvements this cycle, but more money is needed to be in constant contact with these voters.

“We know that consistent engagement around the year is better at getting folks out, especially young people,” she added. “They do not like when people parachute in at the last minute and ask for their vote.”

And what worries leaders like Ocampo is not that Latinos may vote for Republicans. It’s that Latinos may not vote at all.

Ramirez, whose group, NextGen, works to mobilise young voters, says both parties are guilty of a “historic underinvestment in the Latino community”. But she argues that Democrats have the better economic message: lowering the cost of prescription drugs, raising the minimum wage and guaranteeing parental leave are popular policies.

“The solutions and economic policies of the Democratic party speak to the greatest number of Latinos’ pain, but that’s not enough to make sure that they come out and vote for Democrats,” she said. “If Democrats want their vote, they need to spend more money and time speaking to the Latino community, especially younger Latinos.”