Joe Biden has transformed his rough July into a jubilant August. Last month, the US president was drowning in negative headlines about his handling of numerous crises, from the war in Ukraine to record-high gas prices and the apparent demise of his signature legislative proposal.

Now, as the summer draws to a close, Biden is riding high, powered by the passage of Democrats’ climate and healthcare package and glimmers of hope for his party’s prospects in the midterm elections. That optimism was on vivid display on Thursday, as Biden took the stage for a rally held by the Democratic National Committee in Rockville, Maryland.

“We’ve come a long way in 18 months. Covid no longer controls our lives. A record number of Americans are working,” Biden told the cheering crowd. “We never gave up. We never gave in. We’re delivering for the American people now.”

Biden’s speech offered a preview of Democrats’ closing message to voters as they enter the final sprint leading up to the November elections. With the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law and Roe v Wade overturned by the conservative-led supreme court, Democrats believe they have a successful strategy to win re-election this fall, and they are prepared to defy previous predictions of a Republican shellacking.

“At the top of the year, it was almost like Democrats were counted out, and most were preparing for the absolute worst,” said Anthony Robinson, political director of the National Democratic Training Committee. “I think that we’re in a completely, completely different headspace going into the midterms. There’s still a lot to do, but I think there’s a definite shift in the tide.”

This week saw fresh indicators that Democrats may be able to avoid the widespread losses usually suffered by the president’s party in the midterms. Democrat Pat Ryan narrowly won a special congressional election in upstate New York on Tuesday, giving him the chance to represent a bellwether district that flipped from supporting Donald Trump in 2016 to backing Biden in 2020. Democrats have similarly outperformed expectations in other recent special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota.

Ryan focused his campaign on the need to protect abortion rights in the wake of the Roe reversal, which ended the federal right to abortion access. Democrats say Ryan’s campaign could provide a playbook to other candidates looking to motivate voters to go to the polls in November.

“I think that he found what resonated in his community and met people where they are,” Robinson said. “It wasn’t about a bunch of figures and numbers. It was just about the raw emotion and that people’s lives are at stake. That’s something that I think is important to everyone.”

The passage of Democrats’ spending package has also helped mitigate concerns that candidates would have little to campaign on, despite the party’s control of the White House and Congress. The Inflation Reduction Act, which Biden signed into law last week, includes $369bn in funds to reduce America’s planet-heating emissions and several provisions aimed at lowering healthcare costs, particularly for Medicare recipients.

“Democrats have their mojo after passing numerous policies that will tangibly impact people’s lives, and now the key is to really sell it with confidence before the midterms,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. “Lowering prescription drug prices, lowering healthcare costs and making water and air healthier for people’s kids is a very good message to take to voters who wonder, does it matter if I vote Democrat or vote at all?”

Biden continued the string of victories on Wednesday, as he signed an executive order to cancel at least $10,000 in student loan debt for millions of borrowers. The order fell far short of what progressives had demanded, but even Democrats who had pushed for more debt cancellation celebrated the news.

“At the end of the day, Biden exceeded the expectations of most progressives on what he would do on student debt,” Green said. “If people want more, they’re certainly not going to get it with Republicans. But this is going to wipe out debt completely for about 20 million people and be a giant chunk out of their debt for many others.”

Before Thursday’s rally, Biden met Democratic donors for a $1m fundraiser, where he attacked Donald Trump and his Republican predecessor’s party loyalists and voter base.

“We’re seeing now either the beginning or the death knell of an extreme Maga agenda,” he said, referring to Trump’s Make America Great Again campaign slogan. “It’s not just Trump … It’s almost semi-fascism,” Biden added.

As Biden has enjoyed this recent wave of wins, his approval rating has ticked up as well, although it remains underwater. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Tuesday found that 41% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, marking the first reading above 40% since early June.

Earlier this month, Democrats overtook Republicans on the generic congressional ballot for the first time since last November, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Those developments have led some election forecasters to shift their predictions for the November elections. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model suggests Democrats are now slightly favored to maintain control of the Senate, and the Cook Political Report downgraded its outlook for Republican gains in the House after Ryan’s victory in New York.

But Republicans are still favored to regain control of the House, reflecting the strong headwinds that Democrats face as they look toward November. Republicans secured several key victories in redistricting battles, giving them a more favorable House map. Considering Democrats’ extremely narrow majority in the House, redistricting alone may provide enough of an advantage for Republicans to recapture the lower chamber.

Americans’ anxiety over the economy presents additional challenges for Democrats. Inflation is higher than it has been in more than 40 years, squeezing families’ budgets amid concerns that the US has entered a recession. An NBC News poll taken this month found that 74% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, marking the fifth month in a row that the reading was over 70%.

Republicans remain confident that the pessimistic national mood will convince voters to reject Democrats in November, and they predicted that the student debt cancelation would end up backfiring on Biden. Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, attacked the policy as a “bailout for the wealthy”.

“Biden’s bailout unfairly punishes Americans who saved for college or made a different career choice, and voters see right through this short-sighted, poorly veiled vote-buy,” McDaniel said on Wednesday.

Democrats acknowledge they still have their work cut out for them over the next three months, which is more than enough time for Republicans to address their sudden reversal in fortune. But as he addressed an exuberant crowd chanting “four more years”, Biden seemed more ready than ever to overcome historical trends and protect his party’s majorities in Congress this fall.

“‘We the people’ are the first words of our constitution, and ‘we the people’ will still determine the destiny of America. If ‘we the people’ stand together, we will prevail,” Biden said on Thursday. “We just have to keep the faith. We just have to persevere. We just have to vote.”

Reuters contributed reporting