Jack Dunnigan stood behind the counter of Pickwick Bookshop, a venerable store he owns, with its homey smell of nobly ageing paper, in the picturesque, liberal riverside town of Nyack about 30 miles north of downtown New York City, and sighed.

“I had a feeling he was going to,” Dunnigan said of the local Democratic congressman and national party stalwart Sean Maloney’s loss to his Republican challenger, Mike Lawler, in the midterm elections.

It was a mild afternoon in the Hudson Valley, four days after Democrats did much better than expected nationally but took damaging tumbles in the elections in solidly blue New York, which helped Republicans win a slim majority in the House of Representatives.

It seemed Dunnigan, 77, had known something Maloney didn’t. Maloney was a five-term congressman and headed the influential Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which describes itself as “the only political committee dedicated to electing Democrats to the House of Representatives”.

Maloney had spent the election cycle using funds and Washington knowhow to shore up vulnerable Democrats across the country and then late on had to rush back to his own district for frantic campaigning when it emerged that he, too, was suddenly vulnerable. But to no avail – he lost, by less than 1%.

Some blamed his strategy and ground game, others said he was unlucky, especially in the congressional redistricting this year that started off favoring Democrats in New York but wound up weighing in Republicans’ favor.

When the maps were redrawn this spring, Maloney decided to run in New York’s 17th congressional district rather than his longtime, more urban, 18th district, even though that meant booting out the newer Mondaire Jones, his fellow Democrat and the incumbent congressman in the 17th district.

Redistricting placed almost three-quarters of the constituents Maloney had represented for a decade outside his new, heavily suburban district.

At his store, Dunnigan added: “I said, Well, this guy’s got a lot of clout but, you know, he built up a lot of clout in his area. I don’t think he had time to really build up that clout [in the 17th district], and he was trying to.”

Bill Clinton stumped for Maloney last month in Nyack, but as a blue enclave the Democratic vote there was hardly imperiled. “I said: that’s impressive but you know, when you’re here, you’re preaching to the choir,” Dunnigan said.

But the 17th encompasses all of Rockland county, home to several right-leaning constituencies: cops and firefighters who commute to New York City and Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities who often vote as a conservative bloc.

“Sean Patrick Maloney really did not come to our community. In terms of campaigning, I feel like until early voting, I didn’t really hear him here,” said Rivkie Feiner, a Rockland county resident who practices Orthodox Judaism and owns a grant-writing company.

“I did see in the newspaper once that he was locally within Rockland or within the district on a Saturday, but tens of thousands of us are Sabbath observant,” Feiner said in a phone interview. “So, you know, it wasn’t like any of us were at any of those events.” Maloney told the New York Times that he invited leaders of several majority-Hasidic villages to meet with him.

Feiner, who advocated for Lawler on the ground, described herself as a lifelong Republican but who has “absolutely” crossed party lines for the right candidate. She said that Lawler had been providing excellent constituent services long before the election – including at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Some felt that Maloney didn’t focus enough on bread-and-butter issues such as inflation and he didn’t take seriously enough Republicans’ discourse on crime – which was emphasized by the New York Republican candidate for governor, Lee Zeldin, who ran the incumbent governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul, uncomfortably close.

Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic political strategist based in New York City, said that in the 17th and other suburban districts where seats were flipped by Republicans, voters “cared about things that the National Democratic party didn’t seem to care about.” Or, at least, that they talked about a lot less.

He said: “They included crime, because the [national] discussion was about abortion, but the subject in that district was crime – in the sense that New York City with all its ills might be encroaching on the people who live there, right? And economics.”

Sheinkopf replied “probably not” when asked if Maloney or his party could have done anything to win his seat.

“They couldn’t get past the Washington negatives and New York City, and the idea that New York City was creeping into their lives, and New York City would become the norm, which [to them] meant crime,” he said.

Maloney’s office didn’t respond to a request for an interview. But he told the New York Times: “Suburban voters are always concerned about the state of New York City. In this case, they were told very negative things, even though in suburban areas north of the city we are blessed to have some of the safest cities anywhere and crime rates that are lower than just a few years ago.”

However, Hochul only won by about six points in a state that went for Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 23 points in 2020, Shawn Donahue, an assistant professor at the University of Buffalo’s department of political science, noted.

“Lee Zeldin may have lost, but he may have delivered the house to Kevin McCarthy,” Donahue said. “Democratic turnout was not good in a lot of parts of New York, Republican turnout was, which is a lot different than it was around the country, where both parties’ turnout was pretty good – and it seems like Zeldin’s relentless push on the crime issue really had a big effect in the suburbs.”

Some of Maloney’s supporters in the district, like Dunnigan, weren’t shocked by his defeat.

Amy Roth, a television producer who voted for Maloney, pointed out that “a lot of New York [District] 17 has turned red recently”.

“Mondaire Jones used to be our guy and he wasn’t even allowed to run, so I think it was upsetting more than shocking. I think it was just like, you know, they’ve kind of screwed up,” Roth said. She also noticed more Lawler signs in the district and the campaign “seemed to knock on more doors”, she said.

Lawler himself told the Guardian he felt that redistricting dealt a heavy blow to Maloney but added that voters were dissatisfied with Democratic heavyweights’ handling of inflation, crime and immigration issues.

Still, Lawler thinks there’s a universe in which a Democrat could have bested him. “I think, obviously, given the close margin, Democrats certainly could have won. There’s 70,000 more Democrats than Republicans [in the district], but I think there’s a confluence of incidents that contributed to this,” he told the Guardian in a phone interview.

“I represent a 2-1 Democratic district in the [state] assembly and I have a proven record of being able to reach across the aisle and get Democrats and independents to support me,” Lawler said.

Maloney, on the other hand, was “primarily speaking” to his base, Lawler claimed. “It certainly would have been possible for him to win, and it would have been possible for another Democrat to win,” Lawler said. “But I think in this election, in this climate, we ran a very disciplined campaign and had a message that appealed to a broad coalition of voters.”