As a first-time presidential candidate, Donald Trump repeatedly demanded that Hillary Clinton be sent to jail. “Lock her up” emerged as a battle cry for the 45th president and his fans. He also pledged that his presidency would properly handle the nation’s secrets.

“In my administration, I’m going to enforce all laws concerning the protection of classified information,” he intoned at a 2016 rally in North Carolina. “No one will be above the law.” As promises go, this one aged badly – much like his commitment to release his tax returns.

On Tuesday night, the government filed its 36-page opposition to the ex-reality-show host’s demand that a special master be appointed. (A special master is an independent mediator appointed to go through documents and determine which may be protected by privilege.)

Trump’s gambit backfired, however. Once again, he looks like a liar. Beyond that, his lawyers became his lackeys. Christina Bobb meet William Barr.

In early June, Trump and Bobb, Trump’s attorney and a former marine, delivered to the government a packet of documents in a sealed folder. A certificate signed by Bobb attested to the fact that “any and all responsive documents accompany this certification”.

Apparently not. Instead, the government subsequently “developed evidence” that “efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation”. Who was involved in the conspiracy is an unanswered question.

Regardless, it is now official: Trump will be on the midterm ballot even if his name does not appear. The upcoming congressional elections won’t be a normal referendum on Joe Biden’s presidency. Instead, 2022 will sound a lot like a rerun of 2020. A once anticipated red tsunami is now looking more like a “puddle”.

On that score, ask media mogul Rupert Murdoch; he can tell you. Just hours before the government filed its latest round of paperwork, Murdoch’s New York Post published an editorial that decried the reemergence of Trump in the national spotlight and its likely impact on Republicans’ chances.

“He lost in 2020 because too many Americans – especially moderates – had gotten sick of his self-indulgent behavior,” the Post wrote. “Since then, his egomania has only grown.”

In case anyone forgot, in Fire and Fury, the first installment of Michael Wolff’s trilogy of Trump tell-alls, Murdoch referred to Trump as “a fucking idiot” after the two men had ended a phone call. And Fox’s Sean Hannity is caught saying, of Trump: “What the fuck is wrong with him?”

These days, Fox News and its corporate parent are defendants in a defamation lawsuit brought by Dominion Voting Systems in connection with the network’s alleged role in spreading the “big lie”. According to reports, Murdoch, his son Lachlan, Hannity, and Tucker Carlson are all expected to testify at deposition.

Meanwhile, Trump and his minions are threatening violence if things don’t go their way. “There literally will be riots in the street,” Senator Lindsey Graham told interviewers. Trump shared a clip of Graham’s interview on his beleaguered social media vehicle, Truth Social.

Said differently, the Republican party is in the process of losing its reputation for law, order and national security. On the right, the drumbeat for defunding the FBI grows louder. Beyond that, Republicans’ relationship to democracy grows more strained.

Larry Hogan, Maryland’s outgoing Republican governor, said as much the other day. In an interview with CBS, he acknowledged that authoritarianism had found a nesting place in what was once the party of Abraham Lincoln. “There’s no question we see some signs,” Hogan said.

It has been years in the making. Republican politicians have embraced Trump as strongman-lite. In a 2016 radio broadcast, Paul LePage, then governor of Maine, made Trump’s authoritarian streak a selling point. “Our constitution is not only broken,” LePage declared, “but we need a Donald Trump to show some authoritarian power in our country.” The Republican party knew who it was getting.

Whether the Democrats can find a message that resonates with swing-voters remains to be seen. Upstairs-downstairs coalitions are inherently unstable.

Yet outrage at the US supreme court’s anti-abortion rights decision in Dobbs has spurred voter registration among women and younger Americans. In a recent special election in rural upstate New York, a Democrat pulled off an upset. Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh are not as wise as they fancy themselves.

Sadly, the conditions that led to Trump’s electoral college win in 2016 remain – even if he eventually winds up behind bars. On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the sharpest drop in US life expectancy in a century, and that drug overdoses reached a record high.

America ails; Trump is but one more symptom. On Thursday, the court will hear arguments on his motion. Don’t expect any indictments – if any – until after the fall’s elections. Thanksgiving and Christmas stand to be interesting.

• Lloyd Green served in the Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992