How long do you think you would survive if everything went to hell, civil war erupted, institutions crumbled and there was absolutely nowhere safe in the world left to run? Me, I’d give myself one week; maybe two. I would like to think that I’m a tough survivor type but the last time I went camping I forgot to bring a sleeping bag and sobbed myself to sleep, so on balance I would have to admit that I’m not. I did have a brief period this year when, in a fit of madness, I thought I’d take up urban farming and become as self-sufficient as is possible with a scrap of garden in Philadelphia. That seemed to go well until I proudly sent my mum a photo of all the luscious berry bushes I had cultivated and she informed me that they were poisonous weeds and I should get rid of them immediately. So, yeah, I don’t give myself great odds on surviving the apocalypse.

I bring all this up because … well, I mean, look around you! Things are not great. In the UK, the cost of living crisis has become so extreme that ITV’s This Morning offered viewers the chance to get their energy bills paid on its Spin the Wheel segment. When people have to compete for basic necessities on daytime TV shows it’s generally not an indicator that your supposedly rich country is in a healthy state.

But, to be fair, very few places are. More than 80% of countries are experiencing inflation of above 6%, leading to an unprecedented rise in civil unrest around the world, according to analysis published last week by a UK-based risk consulting firm. Out of 198 countries, Verisk Maplecrof reported, 101, including the UK, now have a heightened risk of conflict and instability. “We’re talking about numerous powder kegs around the world simply waiting for that spark to be ignited,” one of the company’s analysts told the Guardian. “We don’t know where that spark will come first.”

A lot of sparks certainly seem to be flying in the US. Not so long ago people would have regarded you as a bit of a loon if you had said you thought civil war was imminent in the US. Not any more: more than 40% of Americans think civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade, according to a recent YouGov survey. Among strong Republicans (the people with all the guns), 54% said civil war was at least somewhat likely. Civil war is now casually discussed on cable TV shows in between ads for haemorrhoid creams and car insurance. “These days, it feels like we are not just at the brink of a civil war, but that one has already begun,” the host of a popular MSNBC show said during a Saturday segment titled Democracy in Danger. To back up her point, she showed clips of the Republican senator Lindsey Graham recently telling Fox News that “there will be riots in the street” if Donald Trump is prosecuted for mishandling classified records.

Americans aren’t just worrying about civil war; they seem to be getting ready for it. The 1%, in particular, are snapping up doomsday bunkers equipped with stocked pantries and luxurious amenities. Which I find pretty hilarious, to be honest. Do billionaires really think that they’ll be able to sit out societal collapse by an underground pool? Who do they think is going to service that pool or cook for them?

While billionaires are buying bunkers, the rest of the US seems to be buying ballistics. Firearm sales have rocketed since the pandemic. Americans bought almost 20m guns last year, which is down from 2020’s record-breaking 22.8m sales, but still incredibly alarming. I’m about as anti-gun as you can get, but lately I’ve found myself wondering if I should maybe learn how to shoot. After all, I don’t really rate my chances of surviving civil unrest in gun-nut America armed only with a broom, a butter knife and a garden full of poisonous berries.

• Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist