Michelle Obama would put Republicans “in a very difficult position” if she ran for president in 2024, a former Trump aide said, because the former first lady is both popular and “immune to criticism”.

Monica Crowley, a former treasury spokeswoman, was speaking on Saturday at CPAC, the conservative conference in Orlando, Florida, at which Donald Trump strongly suggested he will run again in two years’ time.

“If [Democrats] were to run Michelle Obama,” Crowley said, during a panel session, “that would put us in a very difficult position because they’d reach for a candidate who is completely plausible, very popular, and immune to criticism.

“Also, when you think about her positioning, she [was a Democratic convention] keynote speaker in 2020, she wrote her autobiography [Becoming, a bestseller] and did a 50-city tour, she has massive Netflix and Spotify deals, and she’s got a voting rights group alongside [the Georgia politician and campaigner] Stacey Abrams.”

Crowley, a sometime Fox News contributor, is well-connected in Trumpworld. In 2016, Trump sought to appoint her as a deputy national security adviser. She withdrew, amid allegations of plagiarism in a book about the Obama administration and in her PhD dissertation.

Crowley called the allegations a “straight-up political hit job” but the book was withdrawn and updated. Columbia University concluded that Crowley’s PhD contained “localised instances of plagiarism” which did not constitute research misconduct. She became treasury spokeswoman in 2019 and, according to the New York Times, was “seen as a positive presence”.

Obama is beloved among Democrats and polls highly in surveys of notional fields should Joe Biden go against all indications and decide not to run for a second term, and should Kamala Harris, the vice-president, not then secure the nomination. The former first lady has spoken up on key Democratic policies, including the need to protect voting rights.

A candidacy is feared by Republicans all the way up to Trump, who according to the Wall Street Journal reporter Michael Bender was convinced Democrats would parachute Obama in to replace Biden at the 2020 convention.

But she has repeatedly said she has no wish to enter politics as a candidate.

In 2018, she told a conference in Boston: “The reason why I don’t want to run for president … is that, first of all, you have to want the job.

“And you can’t just say, ‘Well, you’re a woman, run.’ We just can’t find the women we like and ask them to do it, because there are millions of women who are inclined and do have the passion for politics.

“I’ve never had the passion for politics. I just happened to be married to somebody who has the passion for politics, and he drug me kicking and screaming into the arena.”

Obama has also said she would like to retire – or spend more time “chasing summer”.

Her husband has said: “Michelle will not run for president. I can guarantee it.”

Still, some Republicans still appear to fear Obama could somehow be dragged into a race against Trump.

Crowley said: “For all of these people who say, ‘Michelle Obama isn’t political … they’re making too much money now,’ keep a very close eye on her because her trajectory is exactly what Barack Obama did before he ran for president and what Bill and Hillary Clinton both did.

“I think if she were to run, that would be a very difficult situation for us.”

Crowley also said she thought Democrats would need to appeal to Black women, particularly if Harris could not secure a post-Biden nomination.

Contrary to Crowley’s claim, Michelle Obama’s “trajectory” does not seem similar to that of her husband or either Clinton. A successful lawyer and popular first lady, she has never run for national office, let alone been a senator (Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton), governor (Bill Clinton) or secretary of state (Hillary Clinton again).

She has however given well-received speeches at Democratic conventions – including a heartfelt expression of support for Biden, her husband’s vice-president, and criticism of Trump, in 2020.

“Let me be as honest and clear as I possibly can,” she said then. “Donald Trump is the wrong president for our country.

“He has had more than enough time to prove that he can do the job, but he is clearly in over his head. He cannot meet this moment. He simply cannot be who we need him to be for us. It is what it is.”