The Republican party didn’t exactly start 2023 hot out of the gate.

Despite a new House majority, the Republican members of Congress spent their first few days in office in an embarrassing protracted squabble over the speakership. Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, who has spent the last few years assisting members of the extremist conspiracy-mongering Trumpian Republican radicals in their rise to power, found himself predictably on the receiving end of the extremist conspiracy-mongers, who wanted one of their own in charge as well as a series of rule changes. After largely capitulating to his party’s lunatic fringe, McCarthy squeaked through on the 15th vote.

Now, he holds the gavel, but it’s clear he doesn’t hold his party’s confidence, and that he’s not a leader in any meaningful sense of the word. If he can’t even get his troops lined up to vote for him, how is he going to get his clearly out-of-control party in line to support even tougher votes?

Which raises the question of what the party can reasonably accomplish in the House this term.

The fact that its most ridiculous members successfully managed to hold the speaker vote hostage to their demands does not bode well for the next two years. This first-few-days drama, which played out before any new members were actually sworn in, likely only taught the radicals the simple lesson that they are at their most powerful when they sow chaos, refuse to compromise and aim not just to shut down the workings of government but to entirely burn to the ground longstanding processes, norms and institutions. This is not a group that was prone to collaboration to begin with, and now their destructive impulses have only been magnified.

So what will this fringe demand the party address? Probably a laundry list of Fox News grievances, starting with Hunter Biden’s laptop; descending further into conspiracy central with investigations into or impeachment proceedings of the homeland security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas (the theory: he didn’t do enough to secure the US-Mexico border, ostensibly for some nefarious reason), and careening into full-scale crazy with inquiries into Anthony Fauci and the Covid-19 response (the theory: Covid originated in a lab, American public health officials helped cover it up, and the Biden administration’s response to a pandemic that killed more than a million Americans – a response that included zero mandatory lockdowns and limited school closures – was a vast overreach, ostensibly, again, for some nefarious reason).

These investigations will, handily, give the House Republicans a ready-made excuse for why they aren’t actually getting anything done on behalf of the American people.

The Republican party legislative agenda is likely equal parts anarchic and reactionary. McCarthy says he wants to focus on the border, crime and inflation; this is the Republican party, so I imagine that abortion will be on that list too, despite a huge voter backlash to the Republican party’s anti-abortion politics in the midterms. How much his fractured party will actually get done is a different question, especially if the far right demands a kind of ideological purity that is often incompatible with lawmaking, and holds up legislation because of it.

The far-right Republican fringe has made clear that they are uninterested in compromise; many of them also do not strike one as the sharpest tools in the shed, taken in as they are by clear fabrications from Jewish space lasers to election fraud. They thrive on drama and attention, and have learned – as every petulant child does – that throwing a tantrum is a great way to get the adults’ attention. That is not a recipe for the boring nitty-gritty of penning and passing legislation. It is, however, a recipe for a series of loud and public fights, some participants in which may be carrying loaded guns in a chamber that just removed its metal detectors.

It is hard to imagine that these deranged cats will be anything but impossible to herd.

Which would frankly be just as well. The Republican party vision for the country remains unclear – the party infamously did not release a platform in the last presidential election, instead simply pledging fealty to the mercurial whims of Donald Trump – but when they do get into the meat of legislating, their ideas go from simplistic-bonkers to evil.

For example: the far right wants to dismantle the IRS and get rid of income-based taxation. They are clear that they would allow the country to default on our national debt, which would be nothing short of disastrous.

Or take immigration: McCarthy says that the border needs to be “secure” before he will allow a bill to address an overburdened immigration system that people on both sides of the aisle agree isn’t working. But the Republican party will simply never agree that the border is appropriately “secure” under a Democratic president, and members have made quite clear that they are willing to abuse and refuse entry to desperate people legitimately seeking asylum. This is, after all, the party of family separation at the border; is there a line they won’t cross when it comes to cruelty toward immigrants?

Legislatively, the Republican party seems primed to play the role of hostage-taker rather than lawmaker. Joe Biden is still the president, and he’s not going to sign a radical abortion ban or wildly cruel anti-immigrant provision. And so the next two years will likely be a carnival of deranged and politicized investigations, congressional showboating and financial crises caused by obstinate know-nothings.

In other words, the rest of 2023 is going to look a lot like the first few days of the Republican majority in the House: an abject disaster.

• Jill Filipovic is the author of the The H-Spot: The Feminist Pursuit of Happiness