Now that Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, you’ll be hearing a lot of speculation about how she might poll against Trump. What if I told you that the polls are almost immaterial to the final election result? Instead of making much ado about who is up and who is down, let’s keep our eyes on a different question – in October, what will voters think this election is about?
The evidence of voter behavior over the last eight years paints a clear picture of what lies ahead. Critically, we can’t use polls today to predict this outcome. That’s because the winner in November will be determined by what, to most voters, the election seems to be “about” by the time voting starts. This will determine whether the voters Democrats need to win will turn out, or stay home.
There are two possible scenarios for what the election will be “about”. We could have what I call the “Maga election”, where the election is “about” what Trump will do if he is returned to the White House to continue to roll back freedoms Americans have taken for granted, and to further tip the balance of power to plutocrats. Or we could have what I call the “normal election”, where the election is “about” anything else – Democrats’ governing record, prices and crime rates.
If it’s a Maga election, Trump will almost certainly lose. If it’s a normal election, he will almost certainly win.
Since Trump’s shocking victory in 2016, we have had the same basic election over and over. The basic question of that election is: should we live in a Maga future or not? Every time voters have understood these stakes, they have turned out in record numbers to reject Maga. This trend started with the “blue wave” in 2018, it continued with Biden’s victory in 2020, and it defied pollsters’ predictions of a “red wave” in 2022.
But here’s something most people don’t know about 2022: it was a natural experiment that clearly showed the difference between a Maga election and a normal election. Most states really did see the predicted red wave. But a blue undertow in the electoral college battleground states stopped Maga short of total victory. In those battlegrounds, the election was “about” Maga. In all of them, a Maga candidate had a credible chance of winning a major statewide race – and Democrats won. But everywhere else, we saw a normal election dominated by “normal” issues – and Democrats lost.
You might have heard talk about how Biden and Democrats need a “low turnout” election to win, but the opposite has been true. In the 2022 Maga elections, as many people voted as had in the highest turnout election ever, four years before. But, in the normal elections, they did not. Nationwide, 6% fewer people cast ballots in 2022 than in 2018. And, in the three states I call the “blue state blues” – California, New Jersey and New York – fully 11% fewer ballots were cast in 2022 than in 2018. Those three states alone cost Democrats six seats and control of the House of Representatives.
Why did this happen? Simple. People turn out to vote if they think they have something to lose by staying home. In the battleground states, Maga candidates like Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano posed a credible threat to the way of life of people who lived there. The blue state blues, on the other hand, lulled too many voters into complacency. It was extremely unlikely for Maga to actually take away abortion rights or voting rights in their backyard. It never occurred to them, and the media never made it clear enough to them, that their failure to vote could hand Maga the keys to the House of Representatives.
The people who surged to the polls to give Democrats victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022 were not “swing voters” in the sense we typically imagine. These voters were not undecided between Trump or Biden; they were undecided about whether to vote at all. And they wouldn’t have voted if they didn’t feel their freedoms were on the line – freedom to control their bodies, breathe clean air, drink clean water and live free from oppressive minority rule. America has an anti-Maga majority that will come off the sidelines to stop these freedoms from being taken away. But if they don’t believe their freedoms are really at stake, they just won’t vote.
I’m not saying the top of the Democratic ticket won’t impact the results. I am saying that when we think about America’s future, only one question really matters: will this person help or hurt our chances of having a Maga election in November?
Michael Podhorzer, the former longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, the chair of the Analyst Institute, the Research Collaborative and the Defend Democracy Project and writes the Substack Weekend Reading.
Source: US Politics - theguardian.com
