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FO° Talks: Freebies, Religion and Corruption: The Brutal Reality of India’s Politics</h2><p class=”post-summary”>
In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Dhruv Jatti discuss how Indian elections are shaped by the urban–rural divide, welfare politics and party organization. Rural voters decide outcomes because they participate more, while urban frustration often comes with apathy. Jatti warns about personality-driven politics, succession risks and money’s growing power in elections.</p><div class=”bookmark-wrap”><div id=”social_link_2″><div class=”social_medai_share”><div class=”vid-page top-social-icon”><div id=”crestashareiconincontent” class=”cresta-share-icon first_style”><div class=”sbutton crestaShadow facebook-cresta-share” id=”facebook-cresta-c”>
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Rohan Khattar Singh </a></div><div class=”posted-on-single-post”>
February 03, 2026 06:32</div></div></div></div><p class=”post_content”></p><div class=”post_content”><div class=”short-content”></div><div class=”full-content”><p><p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Dhruv Jatti, a young Congress spokesperson from Karnataka, India, about how Indian democracy functions. The country’s elections are often explained through ideology, religion or social media narratives. Drawing on his experience in both rural and urban politics, Jatti strips away abstraction and focuses on turnout, money, leadership structures and voter behavior. The result is a portrait of Indian politics driven less by ideas than by participation, incentives and power concentration.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Urban apathy vs. rural power</h2><p>Jatti begins by outlining what he describes as two political realities coexisting within one country. Rural politics, he explains, is shaped by immediate socioeconomic concerns — employment close to home, agriculture, education, water and sanitation. Urban voters, by contrast, focus on infrastructure, crime and cost of living, but participate far less consistently.</p><p>Notably, rural India, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the electorate, votes at much higher rates than urban India. As a result, political parties logically prioritize rural demands. He argues that urban frustration often masks a deeper contradiction: City voters complain about governance failures yet frequently opt out of the electoral process.</p><p>Rural voters are “more emotionally driven compared to the urban spaces,” Jatti comments, while urban voters display habitual apathy. Indian democracy is not distorted by rural dominance; it simply reflects where participation actually occurs.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Welfare, freebies and accountability</h2><p>The discussion turns to the contentious issue of welfare schemes, often dismissed in public debate as “freebies.” Jatti rejects the label, framing these programs as socioeconomic policies designed to stabilize vulnerable populations. He notes that similar redistributive mechanisms exist globally and argues that India’s developmental gap makes them unavoidable.</p><p>Simultaneously, he acknowledges the legitimacy of urban resentment, particularly among taxpayers who feel excluded from direct benefits. The deeper problem, he argues, is not redistribution itself but the lack of follow-through. Without mechanisms to track how funds are used, governments cannot demonstrate whether welfare actually leads to long-term empowerment.</p><p>Jatti stresses that assistance should not “end at the fact that political parties give 2,000 rupees.” For him, accountability, not austerity, is the missing piece that could reconcile welfare politics with urban skepticism.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>BJP, Congress and the urban narrative</h2><p>Khattar Singh presses Jatti on why the conservative Bharatiya Janata Party has dominated urban India for over a decade. Jatti attributes this success to the party’s sustained outreach to upper-middle-class and business communities, supported by a disciplined organizational structure that elevates younger leaders.</p><p>Congress has historically focused its messaging on rural and backward communities, leaving urban spaces underdeveloped. Jatti defends that emphasis as morally necessary but argues that it has created a representational gap. Congress, he says, needs to identify younger leaders from urban and upper-middle-class backgrounds and give them visible roles.</p><p>Jatti contrasts the BJP’s pipeline for promoting cadre-level figures with Congress’s slower, more fragmented process. Without systematic talent identification, urban constituencies will likely remain politically hollowed out for the party.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Leadership, dynasties and cult politics</h2><p>The conversation then shifts to leadership concentration within India’s major parties. Addressing the Gāndhī family’s prominence, Jatti explains that at the grassroots level, party workers almost exclusively recognize Rahul Gāndhī and Priyanka Gāndhī Vadra — the Opposition leader and member of the lower house of Indian Parliament, respectively. Leadership reflects internal demand rather than imposed symbolism.</p><p>This model cannot endure indefinitely. Without nurturing new leaders over the next decade, Jatti warns, Congress risks stagnating. He calls for a nationwide youth “talent hunt” tied to real organizational power, not symbolic inclusion.</p><p>This concern extends to the BJP as well. Jatti argues that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi represents a classic “cult personality,” comparable to former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in her era. Such dominance weakens second-tier leadership and makes succession dangerous. “Your state leaders or the leaders at a lower level become very negligent,” he comments. When power is centralized so completely, transition becomes the system’s greatest vulnerability.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Religion, identity and the limits of electoral change</h2><p>Jatti insists that Congress has allowed itself to be falsely branded as anti-Hindu despite its historical role in protecting religious communities during independence. He argues that Congress’s outreach to Muslims has been deliberately mischaracterized.</p><p>By contrast, he describes the BJP’s appeal as offering Hindu communities a sense of collective security, likening its narrative to Israel’s self-conception as a protective homeland. Unless Congress can articulate its own version of cultural security without abandoning secularism, it may struggle to reclaim lost vote banks.</p><p>The conversation closes on electoral reform and voter responsibility. Jatti delivers a stark assessment of money politics, warning that elections are increasingly easy for those who can afford them. Real change, he argues, cannot come from parties alone. Voters must demand cleaner air, education and accountability over caste and religion — otherwise politics will continue to supply exactly what the electorate rewards.</p><p>For young Indians considering public life, Jatti’s advice is simple and unromantic: Start small, work locally and resist the lure of money. Democracy, he concludes, reflects what citizens ask for and what they tolerate.</p><p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p><p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p></p></div></div></div></div><div class=”comments-wrapper” id=”comments-wrapper”><div class=”headline hide-on-print border-bottom marb30″><h2>Comment</h2></div><div class=”wpdiscuz_top_clearing”></div><div id=’comments’ class=’comments-area’><div id=’respond’ style=’width: 0;height: 0;clear: both;margin: 0;padding: 0;’></div><div id=”wpdcom” class=”wpdiscuz_unauth wpd-default wpd-layout-1 wpd-comments-open”><div class=”wc_social_plugin_wrapper”></div><div class=”wpd-form-wrap”><div class=”wpd-form-head”><div class=”wpd-auth”><div class=”wpd-login”>
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alt=”Fair Observer” title=”” width=”500″ /></a></div></article></div></div></div></div><div class=”video-top-scroll row”><div id=”videodemos”><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Freebies-Religion-and-Corruption-The-Brutal-Reality-of-Indias-Politics-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/WLKPOMZinOI”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/dhruv-jatti’>Dhruv Jatti</a>”
post_date=”February 03, 2026 06:32″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-freebies-religion-and-corruption-the-brutal-reality-of-indias-politics/” pid=”160596″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Dhruv Jatti, a young Congress spokesperson from Karnataka, India, about how Indian democracy functions. The country’s elections are often explained through ideology, religion or social media narratives. Drawing on his experience in both rural and urban politics, Jatti strips away abstraction and focuses on turnout, money, leadership structures and voter behavior. The result is a portrait of Indian politics driven less by ideas than by participation, incentives and power concentration.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Urban apathy vs. rural power</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Jatti begins by outlining what he describes as two political realities coexisting within one country. Rural politics, he explains, is shaped by immediate socioeconomic concerns — employment close to home, agriculture, education, water and sanitation. Urban voters, by contrast, focus on infrastructure, crime and cost of living, but participate far less consistently.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Notably, rural India, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the electorate, votes at much higher rates than urban India. As a result, political parties logically prioritize rural demands. He argues that urban frustration often masks a deeper contradiction: City voters complain about governance failures yet frequently opt out of the electoral process.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Rural voters are “more emotionally driven compared to the urban spaces,” Jatti comments, while urban voters display habitual apathy. Indian democracy is not distorted by rural dominance; it simply reflects where participation actually occurs.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Welfare, freebies and accountability</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The discussion turns to the contentious issue of welfare schemes, often dismissed in public debate as “freebies.” Jatti rejects the label, framing these programs as socioeconomic policies designed to stabilize vulnerable populations. He notes that similar redistributive mechanisms exist globally and argues that India’s developmental gap makes them unavoidable.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Simultaneously, he acknowledges the legitimacy of urban resentment, particularly among taxpayers who feel excluded from direct benefits. The deeper problem, he argues, is not redistribution itself but the lack of follow-through. Without mechanisms to track how funds are used, governments cannot demonstrate whether welfare actually leads to long-term empowerment.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Jatti stresses that assistance should not “end at the fact that political parties give 2,000 rupees.” For him, accountability, not austerity, is the missing piece that could reconcile welfare politics with urban skepticism.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>BJP, Congress and the urban narrative</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Khattar Singh presses Jatti on why the conservative Bharatiya Janata Party has dominated urban India for over a decade. Jatti attributes this success to the party’s sustained outreach to upper-middle-class and business communities, supported by a disciplined organizational structure that elevates younger leaders.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Congress has historically focused its messaging on rural and backward communities, leaving urban spaces underdeveloped. Jatti defends that emphasis as morally necessary but argues that it has created a representational gap. Congress, he says, needs to identify younger leaders from urban and upper-middle-class backgrounds and give them visible roles.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Jatti contrasts the BJP’s pipeline for promoting cadre-level figures with Congress’s slower, more fragmented process. Without systematic talent identification, urban constituencies will likely remain politically hollowed out for the party.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Leadership, dynasties and cult politics</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The conversation then shifts to leadership concentration within India’s major parties. Addressing the Gāndhī family’s prominence, Jatti explains that at the grassroots level, party workers almost exclusively recognize Rahul Gāndhī and Priyanka Gāndhī Vadra — the Opposition leader and member of the lower house of Indian Parliament, respectively. Leadership reflects internal demand rather than imposed symbolism.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>This model cannot endure indefinitely. Without nurturing new leaders over the next decade, Jatti warns, Congress risks stagnating. He calls for a nationwide youth “talent hunt” tied to real organizational power, not symbolic inclusion.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>This concern extends to the BJP as well. Jatti argues that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi represents a classic “cult personality,” comparable to former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in her era. Such dominance weakens second-tier leadership and makes succession dangerous. “Your state leaders or the leaders at a lower level become very negligent,” he comments. When power is centralized so completely, transition becomes the system’s greatest vulnerability.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Religion, identity and the limits of electoral change</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Jatti insists that Congress has allowed itself to be falsely branded as anti-Hindu despite its historical role in protecting religious communities during independence. He argues that Congress’s outreach to Muslims has been deliberately mischaracterized.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>By contrast, he describes the BJP’s appeal as offering Hindu communities a sense of collective security, likening its narrative to Israel’s self-conception as a protective homeland. Unless Congress can articulate its own version of cultural security without abandoning secularism, it may struggle to reclaim lost vote banks.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The conversation closes on electoral reform and voter responsibility. Jatti delivers a stark assessment of money politics, warning that elections are increasingly easy for those who can afford them. Real change, he argues, cannot come from parties alone. Voters must demand cleaner air, education and accountability over caste and religion — otherwise politics will continue to supply exactly what the electorate rewards.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>For young Indians considering public life, Jatti’s advice is simple and unromantic: Start small, work locally and resist the lure of money. Democracy, he concludes, reflects what citizens ask for and what they tolerate.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Dhruv Jatti, a young Congress spokesperson from Karnataka, India, about how Indian democracy functions. The country’s elections are often explained through ideology, religion or social media narratives. Drawing on his experience in…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Dhruv Jatti discuss how Indian elections are shaped by the urban–rural divide, welfare politics and party organization. Rural voters decide outcomes because they participate more, while urban frustration often comes with apathy. Jatti warns about personality-driven politics, succession risks and money’s growing power in elections.”
post-date=”Feb 03, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Freebies, Religion and Corruption: The Brutal Reality of India’s Politics” slug-data=”fo-talks-freebies-religion-and-corruption-the-brutal-reality-of-indias-politics”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-freebies-religion-and-corruption-the-brutal-reality-of-indias-politics/”
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FO° Talks: Freebies, Religion and Corruption: The Brutal Reality of India’s Politics</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160596″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Dhruv-Jatti-150×150.jpg.webp” />
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<span id=”date-auth-160596″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/dhruv-jatti”>Dhruv Jatti</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>February 03, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Trumps-Nigeria-Airstrikes-Protecting-Christians-or-Showing-American-Power-in-Africa-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/lESAlKzUMeY”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/olawole-fajusigbe’>Olawole Fajusigbe</a>”
post_date=”February 02, 2026 06:30″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-trumps-nigeria-airstrikes-protecting-christians-or-showing-american-power-in-africa/” pid=”160580″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Olawole Fajusigbe, a lawyer based in Lagos, Nigeria, about the ramifications of the recent US airstrikes inside his country. The strikes, ordered by US President Donald Trump, targeted Islamic militant groups and were publicly framed as an effort to protect persecuted Christians. Inside Nigeria, however, the explanation is far more complex. The conversation examines competing narratives around religion and security, the regional geopolitics behind the strikes and the deeper structural weaknesses that continue to fuel violence across Africa’s most populous nation.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Airstrikes, sovereignty and the regional chessboard</h2>
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<p>The US airstrikes took place on December 26, 2025, in northwestern Sokoto State, a region bordering Niger. According to Fajusigbe, geography matters. After Niger’s 2023 military coup, US forces faced expulsion from a surveillance base that had monitored extremist movements across Africa’s northern Sahel region. Russian forces later occupied the same facilities, shifting the regional balance of power.</p>
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<p>Washington and the Nigerian capital of Abuja offered different explanations for the strikes. Trump stated they were intended to punish those killing Christians, while Nigerian authorities described them as counter-insurgency operations aimed at destabilizing armed groups fueling regional unrest. The absence of a joint statement underscored the lack of narrative alignment and raised questions about consent, coordination and sovereignty.</p>
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<p>Khattar Singh situates the strikes within Trump’s broader foreign policy posture, where military action increasingly doubles as strategic signaling. With Niger lost, Venezuela freshly destabilized and China expanding its footprint in Africa, Nigeria suddenly appears on a crowded geopolitical chessboard.</p>
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<p>Yet Fajusigbe doubts Washington wants to open another major front. He warns that destabilizing a country of roughly 250 million people would carry continent-wide consequences.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Religion, violence and the danger of oversimplification</h2>
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<p>Nigeria is frequently ranked among the world’s most dangerous countries for Christians. Islamist groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province openly seek to establish a caliphate and have targeted Christians, moderate Muslims and traditional communities alike. The nation has seen churches bombed, priests kidnapped and villages attacked.</p>
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<p>Simultaneously, Fajusigbe urges caution against reducing Nigeria’s violence to a single religious narrative. In the northwest and northeast, Muslims form the majority and are often the primary victims of kidnappings and killings. Many attacks are opportunistic rather than sectarian and religious identity is frequently layered onto deeper disputes.</p>
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<p>As he explains, “it may be religious, but it’s underpinned by economic factors and land disputes.” Long-running clashes between predominantly Muslim cattle herders and predominantly Christian farming communities over grazing land have become deadlier as climate stress, population growth and weak governance intensify competition. According to Fajusigbe, a “minority of malcontents” benefits from framing every conflict in religious terms, inflaming tensions and attracting external attention.</p>
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<p>This complexity is often lost in Western political discourse, where simplified narratives make military solutions appear more decisive than they truly are.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Governance, migration and the limits of military power</h2>
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<p>The conversation then turns to Nigeria’s diplomatic response. Facing scrutiny from Washington, Abuja hired a major lobbying firm to demonstrate its commitment to protecting Christians. But Fajusigbe insists rhetoric alone will not suffice. Quoting Nigeria’s defense minister, he notes that “military intervention will only solve about 30% of the current issues,” with the remaining 70% dependent on governance.</p>
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<p>In remote regions where the state is absent, insurgent groups often function as de facto authorities, collecting taxes and enforcing order. Breaking this cycle requires arrests, prosecutions, territorial control and credible public services, not just airstrikes. Without tangible results, lobbying efforts in Washington risk ringing hollow.</p>
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<p>US–Nigeria relations face additional strain from Trump’s 2026 travel restrictions, which placed Nigeria among 75 affected countries. While Washington cites illegal immigration and vetting failures, Fajusigbe calls the framing misleading. As the world’s most populous black nation, Nigeria naturally produces large migrant numbers. For him, the visa ban presents the deeper challenge that unless Nigeria improves domestic opportunity, people will continue to leave in droves.</p>
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<p>The discussion closes on the question many Nigerians are now asking: Could Nigeria become the next Venezuela? Despite Nigeria’s oil wealth, Fajusigbe remains skeptical that Washington seeks another regime-shaking intervention. He cautions that foreign military action often leaves societies worse off and emphasizes local responsibility over external rescue.</p>
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<p>Fajusigbe makes a stark conclusion: “We are on our own. Don’t look for a savior out there.” Sustainable peace, he believes, cannot be imposed from the air. It must emerge from within, shaped by Nigerians who understand the social, economic and cultural roots of their own conflicts.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Olawole Fajusigbe, a lawyer based in Lagos, Nigeria, about the ramifications of the recent US airstrikes inside his country. The strikes, ordered by US President Donald Trump, targeted Islamic militant groups and were publicly framed…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Olawole Fajusigbe discuss the US airstrikes in Nigeria and US President Donald Trump’s claim that they were to protect persecuted Christians. The country’s violence isn’t about religion alone; insurgency and land disputes are also culpable. Sustainable peace must come from internal political and economic reform, not foreign force.”
post-date=”Feb 02, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Trump’s Nigeria Airstrikes: Protecting Christians or Showing American Power in Africa?” slug-data=”fo-talks-trumps-nigeria-airstrikes-protecting-christians-or-showing-american-power-in-africa”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-trumps-nigeria-airstrikes-protecting-christians-or-showing-american-power-in-africa/”
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FO° Talks: Trump’s Nigeria Airstrikes: Protecting Christians or Showing American Power in Africa?</h3>
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Olawole-Fajusigbe-150×150.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-160580″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/olawole-fajusigbe”>Olawole Fajusigbe</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>February 02, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Trump-Maduro-and-Oil-How-the-Venezuela-Operation-Redefines-American-Power-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/8PBCeNUW1hU”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/l-vivas’>Leonardo Vivas</a>”
post_date=”February 01, 2026 06:14″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-trump-maduro-and-oil-how-the-venezuela-operation-redefines-american-power/” pid=”160569″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Professor Leonardo Vivas of Lesley University about the dramatic US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Venezuelan First Lady Cilia Flores. They examine how the operation was executed, why oil sits at the center of Washington’s strategy and what the episode reveals about American power in an era of global instability. More than a regional shock, the Venezuela operation becomes a case study in how force, energy and geopolitics now intersect.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Trump’s precision operation</h2>
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<p>Vivas outlines the scale and sequencing of the Operation Absolute Resolve, which involved a large US naval presence in the Caribbean, strikes on drug-trafficking routes and the interception of oil shipments bound for China, India and Cuba. The final phase unfolded in the early hours of Saturday, January 3, when US forces launched a helicopter raid on Fuerte Tiuna, Maduro’s heavily guarded residential compound in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas.</p>
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<p>According to Vivas, the operation’s success depended on surprise, intelligence and timing. The compound, often misunderstood as a single residence, is closer to a fortified city, staffed largely by Cuban security personnel rather than Venezuelan forces. When Delta Force units moved in, resistance collapsed quickly. Around 40 Cuban guards were killed, while US forces reportedly suffered no casualties.</p>
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<p>Khattar Singh notes the global disbelief that followed the first videos on social media, which many assumed were fabricated. The lack of visible resistance and the speed of the operation made the outcome appear almost unreal. For Vivas, however, the operation reflected months of preparation and a clear strategic intent. It also demonstrated that Washington was willing to act unilaterally and decisively, outside traditional diplomatic frameworks.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Betrayal at the top</h2>
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<p>The operation raises a central question: Why did Venezuela’s military and political elite fail to respond? Vivas argues that key figures inside the regime may have facilitated Maduro’s downfall to preserve their own survival.</p>
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<p>He points to the rise of Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president and the continued influence of her brother, President of the National Assembly of Venezuela Jorge Rodríguez, who has long overseen negotiations with both the US and the Venezuelan opposition. In Vivas’s view, the absence of resistance suggests coordination rather than paralysis. As he puts it, “They just double-crossed Maduro, and they just offered him on a platter.”</p>
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<p>Formally, the Rodríguez leadership condemned the operation, but Vivas argues this response was largely performative. In practice, the interim leadership is operating under intense US pressure, particularly over oil exports and revenues. Control of shipments, escrow accounts and destinations effectively places Venezuela’s most important economic lever under external supervision.</p>
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<p>This arrangement, Vivas suggests, explains the regime’s internal fragility. Those excluded from the alleged conspiracy now face a serious query: If Maduro was expendable, who is safe? Sporadic unrest by paramilitary groups and armed <em>colectivos</em> reflects this underlying uncertainty.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Oil as leverage, not salvation</h2>
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<p>Oil dominates the strategic logic of the operation, but Vivas cautions against assuming a rapid recovery of Venezuela’s energy sector. Production has fallen from a peak of 3.3 million barrels per day to roughly 900,000. Refineries are degraded, infrastructure has collapsed and the country now imports gasoline from Iran.</p>
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<p>Even with the world’s largest proven reserves, Venezuela’s oil is heavy and technically demanding. Restarting production requires years of investment, advanced processing and institutional stability. Vivas estimates that meaningful recovery would take at least two to three years, even under favorable conditions.</p>
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<p>He is skeptical that US energy companies, beyond Chevron Corporation, will commit serious capital. Property rights remain uncertain, inflation approached 700% by the end of 2025 and Venezuela carries massive sovereign and corporate debt. In a global market with ample supply and soft prices, Venezuela is a high-risk proposition. Oil, in this context, functions less as an economic windfall than as a geopolitical bargaining chip.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Venezuela’s uncertain future</h2>
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<p>Maduro’s removal delivers a major blow to Russia, which had supplied Venezuela’s arms and valued it as a strategic foothold near the United States. Vivas argues that Moscow stands to lose the most, noting that “the one that loses more is Russia.” China, by contrast, appears more adaptable, shifting its energy focus toward neighboring Guyana while gradually reducing its exposure to Venezuela.</p>
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<p>Regionally, the operation sends a warning. Leaders in Colombia, Brazil and beyond are forced to reassess Washington’s tolerance for defiance. Vivas describes Trump’s negotiating style as coercive but transactional, recalling that “once you put the gun on the table, then you go and negotiate.”</p>
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<p>Looking ahead, Vivas expresses sympathy for Venezuela’s democratic opposition but remains pragmatic. “I would love that Edmundo González Urrutia, who is the legitimately elected president of Venezuela, could take power,” he says, yet he doubts that such a transition is currently sustainable. Chavista forces — supporters of late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, whose ideologies Maduro carried on — still dominate the military, judiciary and security services, while non-state armed actors further complicate the landscape.</p>
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<p>For now, Venezuela’s future hinges on whether the interim leadership carries out reforms under US pressure and whether those reforms are meant as genuine change or merely a survival strategy. The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Power projection, not diplomacy, has reshaped the Venezuelan equation — and the effects will extend far beyond Caracas.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Professor Leonardo Vivas of Lesley University about the dramatic US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Venezuelan First Lady Cilia Flores. They examine how the operation was executed,…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Leonardo Vivas discuss the US military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and redefined Washington’s use of hard power. They explore oil as geopolitical leverage, internal regime fractures and the decline of Russian influence. Venezuela’s future remains uncertain, shaped by coercive diplomacy.”
post-date=”Feb 01, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Trump, Maduro and Oil: How the Venezuela Operation Redefines American Power” slug-data=”fo-talks-trump-maduro-and-oil-how-the-venezuela-operation-redefines-american-power”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-trump-maduro-and-oil-how-the-venezuela-operation-redefines-american-power/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Trump-Maduro-and-Oil-How-the-Venezuela-Operation-Redefines-American-Power-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/8PBCeNUW1hU?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Trump, Maduro and Oil: How the Venezuela Operation Redefines American Power</h3>
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Leonardo-Vivas-100×100.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-160569″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/l-vivas”>Leonardo Vivas</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>February 01, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/The-Donroe-Doctrine-Will-Trump-Go-After-Mexico-Colombia-and-Brazil-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/KNUdpp8Z9wU”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joseph-bouchard’>Joseph Bouchard</a>”
post_date=”January 31, 2026 05:50″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/latin_america/fo-talks-the-donroe-doctrine-will-trump-go-after-mexico-colombia-and-brazil/” pid=”160552″
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<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Joseph Bouchard, a journalist and researcher on Latin American politics, about the US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and what it reveals about Washington’s evolving strategy in Latin America. Bouchard argues the raid marks a sharper, more overt US intervention model there, one tied to energy, resources and strategic competition with China. They also probe a central mystery: why Venezuela’s armed forces appear not to have resisted.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Operation Absolute Resolve</h2>
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<p>Bouchard describes Operation Absolute Resolve, a tightly executed raid in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas involving US Delta Force, the CIA and US Southern Command. He says the raid included low-altitude Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters, precision strikes on select military and political targets, and a rapid extraction of Maduro and Flores. Khattar Singh notes there are no reported US casualties so far, while reporting suggests dozens of deaths on the Venezuelan side, with many reportedly Cuban security personnel.</p>
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<p>Bouchard’s assessment separates tactics from strategy. While he disagrees with the broader objectives, he characterizes the speed and coordination as startlingly effective, noting “how quick it was, how seamless it was.” Khattar Singh emphasizes the “live” aspect of the moment: a head of state being seized in a social media environment where evidence of major clashes would surface quickly if they occurred.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Venezuelan military’s silence and Cuba’s role</h2>
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<p>A major thread is what neither man can yet explain with confidence: the apparent absence of Venezuelan military resistance. Khattar Singh points out that Maduro previously showcased air power in public drills, including General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon jets and Russian Sukhoi aircraft, yet “not a single jet” appears to have been scrambled during the raid. Bouchard agrees, saying, “we’ll only know the complete truth in 10, 20 years when they declassify.”</p>
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<p>He offers multiple working theories. One possibility is restraint from the top. Maduro may have calculated that direct engagement would trigger a larger US occupation and decided survival of the broader regime mattered more than fighting for his own position. Another possibility is a deeper compromise inside the system, including the idea that key figures were “flipped,” bought off or instructed to stand down.</p>
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<p>On the ground, Bouchard links the reported casualties to a longstanding security dynamic. He argues Maduro distrusted portions of his own apparatus and relied heavily on Cuban protection. Purges in the Venezuelan military and inner circle may have created incentives to outsource security to personnel seen as more loyal, disciplined and ideologically reliable. That might explain why the fiercest resistance, to the extent it occurred, appears to have come from Cubans guarding the presidential residence rather than from regular Venezuelan forces.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Proxy governance and Machado’s sidelining</h2>
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<p>After the capture, Maduro was reportedly transferred first to Guantánamo Bay and then to New York to face charges tied to narco-terrorism. Bouchard explains the administration’s public framing. It is presented as a law-enforcement operation to apprehend a wanted fugitive with a bounty, reinforced by “War on Terror” language meant to widen legal and political cover.</p>
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<p>But he argues those charges function as a pretext rather than the true driver. In his telling, narco-terrorism rhetoric echoes earlier US justifications for force and is designed to make a dramatic action feel procedurally legitimate.</p>
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<p>The conversation then shifts to who runs Caracas now. Bouchard says Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control with backing from the ruling party, while Washington signals it can pressure her to comply. He also says the CIA may prefer governing “by proxy” rather than mounting a full occupation, keeping the state machinery intact enough to maintain stability and oil production while making leadership responsive to US demands.</p>
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<p>That framework sets up the politically awkward question of María Corina Machado. This well-known opposition figure appears absent from the immediate post-raid arrangement. US President Donald Trump has commented that Machado lacks domestic respect and reads it as intentional sidelining. Bouchard floats several explanations: Trump’s personal grudges, the optics problem of installing a figure whose pro-oil messaging has been highly public and an intelligence preference for a less overt “coup signature” that does not inflame chavista supporters or provoke regional backlash.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The “Donroe Doctrine”</h2>
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<p>Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine,” as many call it, is a more aggressive Monroe Doctrine posture in a multipolar world. Bouchard says the administration’s rhetoric toward Mexico, Colombia and Brazil has sharpened, with leaders branded as “narcos,” “terrorists” or “communists.” He identifies Mexico and Colombia as the most immediate focus, noting operational feasibility in Mexico and sharper ideological confrontation in Colombia.</p>
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<p>Bouchard frames Colombian President Gustavo Petro as uniquely defiant, predicting intense resistance to US pressure. He also points to the diplomatic and financial tools Washington already uses: visa revocations, cuts to security cooperation, and pressure campaigns that can escalate alongside military threats. Cuba enters as a separate but related case, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s long-standing hard line and renewed talk that Cuba’s capital of Havana could be next.</p>
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<p>But what is the Trump administration’s motive? Bouchard argues drugs and migration work as political messaging, but he doubts they explain the policy reality. He notes fentanyl supply chains point primarily to Mexico and China, not Venezuela, and he questions the logic of using military force as a standard response to trafficking. From his perspective, the center of gravity has shifted to oil, gold and strategic denial of China’s access to Venezuelan energy. “I think this is about money,” he states.</p>
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<p>The final exchange broadens to Beijing’s next move if Venezuela is effectively closed off. Bouchard suggests China may look harder at Mexico, Colombia and Brazil for energy and commodity access. He also notes that Washington has floated sanctions against exporters to China and Russia. For Khattar Singh and Bouchard, the situation reads as a signpost of an emerging order where major powers increasingly enforce spheres of influence, raising the stakes for Latin America as a contested strategic zone rather than a secondary theater.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Joseph Bouchard, a journalist and researcher on Latin American politics, about the US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and what it reveals about Washington’s evolving…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Joseph Bouchard discuss the US raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the regional strategy nicknamed the “Donroe Doctrine.” They consider why Venezuela’s military didn’t respond and why Cuba’s security forces appear to have taken the brunt. Perhaps the real drivers are oil, resources and China?”
post-date=”Jan 31, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: The Donroe Doctrine: Will Trump Go After Mexico, Colombia and Brazil?” slug-data=”fo-talks-the-donroe-doctrine-will-trump-go-after-mexico-colombia-and-brazil”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/latin_america/fo-talks-the-donroe-doctrine-will-trump-go-after-mexico-colombia-and-brazil/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/The-Donroe-Doctrine-Will-Trump-Go-After-Mexico-Colombia-and-Brazil-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/The-Donroe-Doctrine-Will-Trump-Go-After-Mexico-Colombia-and-Brazil-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/The-Donroe-Doctrine-Will-Trump-Go-After-Mexico-Colombia-and-Brazil-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/KNUdpp8Z9wU?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: The Donroe Doctrine: Will Trump Go After Mexico, Colombia and Brazil?</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160552″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Joseph-Bouchard-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160552″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joseph-bouchard”>Joseph Bouchard</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 31, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/From-Baghdad-to-Dubai-How-Power-Oil-and-Religion-Transformed-the-Islamic-World-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/3M8TW0ghod8″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/brynbarnard’>Bryn Barnard</a>”
post_date=”January 22, 2026 06:23″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/history/fo-talks-from-baghdad-to-dubai-how-power-oil-and-religion-transformed-the-islamic-world/” pid=”160372″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh speaks with Bryn Barnard, an artist and author who wrote the 2011 book, <em>The Genius of Islam: How Muslims Made the Modern World</em>. Barnard argues that the medieval Muslim world was once the leading center of science, literacy and engineering, and that its legacy was later minimized as Europe regained confidence during the Renaissance. Their conversation moves from Barnard’s personal experiences in Malaysia to the “Golden Age” of translation and invention, then to the modern politics of identity as expressed through religion, memory and architecture.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Malaysia, memory and the return of conservatism</h2>
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<p>Barnard begins with his lived experience in Malaysia. He began as an American Field Service exchange student in the early 1970s and later stayed in Southeast Asia for roughly a decade due to fellowships and research. Living with a Malay Muslim family, he encountered a syncretic Islam shaped by older animist, Hindu and Buddhist layers. He describes practices that blend Quranic recitation with local shamanic healing, and he emphasizes how normal it once was for Malay life to contain overlapping identities rather than a single purified one.</p>
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<p>That pluralism narrowed after 1979. He links the tightening of public norms to the Iranian Revolution, regional religious competition and sustained Saudi missionary influence promoting <em>Wahhabi</em>-style rigor — based on the 18th-century puritanical Islamic reform movement. He illustrates the shift with an anecdote about relatives altering old family photos to match contemporary expectations. The point is not nostalgia for a lost “pure” past, but the political force of edited memory, where a society gradually forgets it ever lived differently.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The medieval “genius” and the translation engine</h2>
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<p>Barnard’s central historical claim is that Muslim civilization’s early rise is inseparable from institution-building. After the rapid expansion beyond Arabia, rulers inherit an imperial problem: how to govern, administer and learn from older empires, including the Eastern Roman and Persian worlds. Barnard describes the translation movement, associated with Baghdad and the Abbasid era (750–1258 AD), as a practical response to ruling an empire and a cultural project that makes Arabic a language of science.</p>
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<p>He highlights Baghdad’s historic House of Wisdom intellectual center as a symbol of this broader ecosystem, a library-and-translation culture that draws on Greek, Persian, Syriac and Indian knowledge. The intellectual effect is not merely the preservation of texts but the creation of an infrastructure for learning and copying at scale. That scale matters when knowledge is threatened by war. Barnard pushes back on the idea that the Mongol sack of Baghdad in 1258 automatically ends Muslim learning, because manuscripts and expertise have already circulated through multiple cities and libraries across the wider Islamic world.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Literacy, numbers and machines that power modern life</h2>
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<p>Barnard emphasizes that the “genius” is visible in ordinary material systems. Paper-making spread after contact with China, and the shift from parchment to paper changed the economics of books. He contrasts a Europe of scarce chained manuscripts with a Muslim world of libraries, scribal production and wider literacy. As he puts it, “most people in Europe were illiterate; most people in the Muslim world at the time were literate.” The point is not triumphalism but the civilizational consequence of cheap, reproducible media.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>He then turns to mathematics as a transmission story with world-historical consequences. Islam, he argues, carries Hindu numerals and the concept of the number zero westward, helping make higher mathematics workable compared with Roman numerals. He ties this to later European uptake, including the role of medieval figures such as Italian mathematician Leonardo Bonacci (better known as Fibonacci), and to foundational techniques of calculation that have become routine in modern schooling.</p>
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<p>A third strand is engineering. Barnard credits medieval Muslim engineers, including Ismail al-Jazari, with recording key mechanisms such as the crank-and-rod system that converts circular motion into linear motion. He treats this as a building block for later technologies, from the steam engine to internal combustion. He adds a related cluster of hydrological innovations, including <em>qanat</em> aqueducts and <em>yakchal</em> ice houses, which link irrigation, food preservation and comfort to sophisticated environmental design.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Human figures, optics and scientific slowdown</h2>
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<p>Singh presses Barnard on a persistent modern assumption: that Islam simply bans iconography, and that this ban should have constrained medicine and anatomy. Barnard’s says that the strongest prohibition is concentrated in religious settings and sacred texts, where geometry, arabesque and calligraphy dominate. In secular settings, figurative traditions flourish in Persian, Mughal and Turkish miniatures, and even depictions of the Prophet Muhammad appear in some contexts, sometimes veiled or stylized.</p>
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<p>Barnard connects this cultural distinction to scientific practice. He argues that medieval Muslim societies did not share the same blanket Christian-era prohibitions on dissection, and that Arabic medical charts and eye anatomy became highly sought after. Terms for parts of the eye passed into Latin and remain in use. He also links Islamic advances in optics to later European art, describing a thesis that Renaissance realism may be aided by lenses and optical devices whose scientific roots reach back to scholars such as astronomer Ibn al-Haytham (better known as Alhazen), famous for work on refraction.</p>
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<p>In explaining the scientific slowdown, Barnard frames a long contest between the <em>ulama</em> (clerics) and the <em>falsafa</em> (philosophers). He spotlights the 12th-century scholar al-Ghazali as a figure whose critique of Greek causality gained massive influence. Barnard’s key example is the rejection of cause-and-effect reasoning as a foundation for scientific inquiry. In his phrasing, “God is creating the world every moment to every moment,” which weakens the intellectual scaffolding that makes experimentation meaningful.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Arab cultural colonization</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The conversation then shifts to identity politics, especially in Malaysia. Barnard describes the remaking of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital, from a Chinese-British city into an “Arab-Malay” aesthetic landscape, shaped by political incentives to satisfy religious conservatives, and reinforced by Saudi-funded institutions and clerical training pipelines. Singh raises a question about “Arab cultural colonization,” an argument that hardline Islam pressures non-Arab societies to abandon local traditions.</p>
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<p>Barnard points out that evangelical, universalizing religions can function as cultural colonizers, and Islam is not unique in that regard. He notes evangelical Christianity’s impact on indigenous peoples in the Americas and on contemporary missionary competition across regions.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Finally, Barnard reads modern architecture as a mirror of political structure. He contrasts Gulf autocracies that compete through monumentality and signature cultural projects with Kuwait’s democratic gridlock that stalls infrastructure, and with Oman’s restrained state-mandated aesthetic under the late Sultan. For Barnard, the outcome is not just pleasing design but a coherent public environment.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh speaks with Bryn Barnard, an artist and author who wrote the 2011 book, The Genius of Islam: How Muslims Made the Modern World. Barnard argues that the medieval Muslim world was once the leading center of science, literacy and engineering, and that its legacy was later…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Atul Singh and Bryn Barnard explore how medieval Islamic civilization became the world’s leading center of science, literacy and engineering through translation, mathematics and institutional learning. They examine why this momentum later weakened as religious conservatism eclipsed philosophy. They read modern Islamic architecture as an expression of power, politics and cultural identity.”
post-date=”Jan 22, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: From Baghdad to Dubai: How Power, Oil and Religion Transformed the Islamic World” slug-data=”fo-talks-from-baghdad-to-dubai-how-power-oil-and-religion-transformed-the-islamic-world”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/history/fo-talks-from-baghdad-to-dubai-how-power-oil-and-religion-transformed-the-islamic-world/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/From-Baghdad-to-Dubai-How-Power-Oil-and-Religion-Transformed-the-Islamic-World-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/From-Baghdad-to-Dubai-How-Power-Oil-and-Religion-Transformed-the-Islamic-World-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/From-Baghdad-to-Dubai-How-Power-Oil-and-Religion-Transformed-the-Islamic-World-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/3M8TW0ghod8?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: From Baghdad to Dubai: How Power, Oil and Religion Transformed the Islamic World</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160372″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bryn-Barnard-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160372″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/brynbarnard”>Bryn Barnard</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 22, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Trumps-Art-of-the-New-Deal-Greenland-Russia-China-and-Reshaping-Global-Order-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/r-QmTIUgGiY”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/jean-daniel-ruch’>Jean-Daniel Ruch</a>”
post_date=”January 19, 2026 07:43″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-trumps-art-of-the-new-deal-greenland-russia-china-and-reshaping-global-order/” pid=”160314″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired Swiss diplomat Jean-Daniel Ruch discuss US President Donald Trump’s “Art of the New Deal.” The conversation examines a decisive shift in American foreign policy away from the post-World War II rules-based order toward a system grounded in power, resources and coercion. Anchored in the US national security strategy released in December 2025, the discussion ranges from Venezuela and the revival of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine to Greenland, the Arctic and the erosion of state sovereignty itself.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Art of the New Deal</h2>
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<p>Ruch frames Trump’s approach as a move from science to art. Unlike rules, art is unpredictable, and unpredictability has become a defining feature of American strategy. Trump’s background in real estate privileges deal-making over law, interests over values and force over ideology. The new US security strategy, released on December 4, 2025, marks what Ruch calls a “strategic break with the past,” abandoning democracy promotion and moral language in favor of raw power relationships.</p>
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<p>Under this framework, Russia and China are no longer treated primarily as enemies. China is defined as an economic competitor, while Russia is described as a difficult partner with whom a new strategic stability must be found. What stands out most, however, is the absence of any ideological framing. As Ruch puts it, “This is a sheer force–power relationship … defining the world under Trump’s Art of the New Deal.”</p>
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<p>Ruch notes that even the language of a “rules-based order” has disappeared. He has long disliked the term, arguing that it often serves as a substitute for international law rather than a commitment to it. In Trump’s version, even that pretense has vanished.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Venezuela and the return of empire politics</h2>
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<p>The US Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela serves as the clearest test case of this new doctrine. The raid that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is discussed as both tactically impressive and strategically uncertain. Ruch acknowledges its military effectiveness, describing it as “tactically … a brilliant operation,” while questioning whether it can deliver long-term stability or legitimacy.</p>
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<p>From Ruch’s perspective, the legal justification offered by Washington is deeply flawed. International law allows the use of force only through UN Security Council authorization or legitimate self-defense against an imminent threat. Venezuela, he argues, posed no such threat. The real objective was geopolitical: reasserting American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and signaling the revival of a 21st-century Monroe Doctrine, jokingly referred to by the speakers as the “Donroe doctrine.”</p>
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<p>Energy looms large in this analysis. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and Ruch links the operation to broader concerns about the weakening of the petrodollar. As more energy transactions move into non-dollar currencies, American financial power faces erosion. Control over oil markets, Ruch suggests, functions as a form of collateral underpinning US debt and global influence.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Greenland, resources and the Arctic scramble</h2>
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<p>The conversation then turns northward to Greenland, which Trump has declared vital to US national security. Ruch outlines two primary drivers: resources and trade routes. China controls roughly 90% of rare earth production and refinement, a vulnerability Trump has openly acknowledged. Rare earths are essential to consumer technology and advanced weapons systems.</p>
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<p>The second factor is the Arctic itself. Melting ice is opening new maritime routes, while Russia has built a dominant fleet of icebreakers and expanded its Arctic presence. Greenland is both a gateway to these routes and a strategic platform for surveillance and control.</p>
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<p>Ruch recounts a diplomatic simulation he ran with students, which produced a straightforward compromise: expanded US military access and mining rights in exchange for infrastructure investment and revenue sharing. The problem, he argues, lies in tactics. Trump’s reliance on threats and intimidation may undermine precisely the kind of deal he claims to favor. In a stark hypothetical, Ruch observes that if the US simply seized Greenland, Denmark would have little recourse.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A pre-Westphalian world and internal US fractures</h2>
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<p>Ruch situates these developments in a longer historical arc, arguing that the international system created by the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia is unraveling. Weak and fractured states, from Syria and Lebanon to Sudan and Libya, are increasingly vulnerable to dismemberment by stronger neighbors. In such a world, sovereignty loses meaning and legitimacy follows power.</p>
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<p>This dynamic, Ruch warns, creates a “blank check” for expansionist behavior. If Russia can annex parts of Ukraine, why should China not move on Taiwan or North Korea? Why should regional powers refrain from carving up failing states?</p>
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<p>The conversation closes with a discussion of internal American divisions. Ruch suggests a growing rift between Trump’s top policymakers and elements of the security establishment, often labeled the deep state. Public clashes, including comments by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard following intelligence leaks about Russia, reveal visible undercurrents within US foreign policy.</p>
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<p>Despite the bleak diagnosis, Ruch ends on a cautious note of optimism. He hopes that the three major powers — the United States, China and Russia — can eventually negotiate a new framework that restores predictability. For now, however, Singh concludes that the world Trump’s New Deal is shaping is unmistakably VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired Swiss diplomat Jean-Daniel Ruch discuss US President Donald Trump’s “Art of the New Deal.” The conversation examines a decisive shift in American foreign policy away from the post-World War II rules-based order toward a system grounded in power,…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Atul Singh and Jean-Daniel Ruch explore US President Donald Trump’s “Art of the New Deal” that breaks from the post-World War II order. US national security strategy, the Venezuela operation and the Greenland/Arctic scramble show how resources and trade routes reshape geopolitics. Ruch hopes the US, China and Russia negotiate a great-power framework.”
post-date=”Jan 19, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Trump’s Art of the New Deal: Greenland, Russia, China and Reshaping Global Order” slug-data=”fo-talks-trumps-art-of-the-new-deal-greenland-russia-china-and-reshaping-global-order”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-trumps-art-of-the-new-deal-greenland-russia-china-and-reshaping-global-order/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Trumps-Art-of-the-New-Deal-Greenland-Russia-China-and-Reshaping-Global-Order-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Trumps-Art-of-the-New-Deal-Greenland-Russia-China-and-Reshaping-Global-Order-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Trumps-Art-of-the-New-Deal-Greenland-Russia-China-and-Reshaping-Global-Order-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/r-QmTIUgGiY?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Trump’s Art of the New Deal: Greenland, Russia, China and Reshaping Global Order</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160314″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Jean-Daniel-Ruch-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160314″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/jean-daniel-ruch”>Jean-Daniel Ruch</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 19, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Deepfakes-and-Democracy-Why-the-Next-Election-Could-Be-Decided-by-AI-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/5zDbJmfG-gE”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/manish-maheshwari’>Manish Maheshwari</a>”
post_date=”January 17, 2026 09:46″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/business/technology/fo-talks-deepfakes-and-democracy-why-the-next-election-could-be-decided-by-ai/” pid=”160278″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer author Catherine Lapey speaks with Manish Maheshwari, former head of Twitter India, an AI entrepreneur and a Mason Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School focused on AI governance and digital public goods. Their core worry is not simply that synthetic media can trick people into believing a lie, but that it can corrode the conditions that make democratic judgment possible: a shared sense of what counts as real.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>From fake news to fake reality</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Maheshwari defines a deepfake in plain terms as synthetic content that is presented as authentic. Synthetic media is not inherently malicious. It can enable creative uses and lower the cost of production for advertising and small businesses. The red line is deception, when creators pass fabricated material off as real in order to misinform, damage reputations or distort public choices.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>For him, the most destabilizing effect is psychological and social. When realistic fakes become common, the public can start doubting genuine evidence as well. Maheshwari puts it starkly: “Democracies don’t fail when lies spread… They fail when citizens stop believing that truth is even possible.” In that scenario, politics becomes a contest of narratives with no agreed reference points, and “shared reality” starts to fracture.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why deepfakes scale differently</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Lapey presses him on what makes deepfakes distinct from older forms of propaganda, defamation or “cheap fakes” such as misleading edits. Maheshwari highlights two shifts.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The first is realism. Today’s AI-generated video can be convincing even to technically literate viewers, narrowing the gap between what looks true and what is true. The second is scale and economics. The production side is becoming nearly frictionless, while the verification side remains expensive and slow. As Maheshwari frames it, “The cost of production is almost zero. The cost of finding out and correcting is significant.” That imbalance favors bad actors, especially when they can flood platforms faster than journalists, fact-checkers or authorities can respond.</p>
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<p>Their discussion returns to elections. A realistic-looking clip of a leader saying something inflammatory can shape opinions immediately, and later debunking often cannot unwind the initial impact, particularly when the content is timed to land right before a vote.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Harassment, violence and the real-world downstream</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Lapey and Maheshwari broaden the lens to social harm. Maheshwari says synthetic media is increasingly used to “troll and abuse,” including character assassination and bullying. He also draws on his experience at Twitter India to underline that misinformation’s impact is not hypothetical. Even before today’s deepfakes, misleading videos circulated out of context could inflame tensions and contribute to mob violence.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Deepfakes remove even the minimal constraint of needing a real clip to distort. Now, fabricated “evidence” can be generated from scratch, packaged to provoke outrage and distributed quickly and widely.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>India’s draft rules and three governance models</h2>
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<p>The conversation then turns to regulation. Maheshwari compares three broad approaches to AI governance.</p>
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<p>In his telling, the European Union tends toward a rights-first, compliance-heavy model. The United States leans more market-led and voluntary, and China relies on state-controlled, coercive mechanisms. India, he argues, is experimenting with something different, a trust-based framework aimed at clarifying authenticity rather than restricting innovation.</p>
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<p>He summarizes India’s draft approach as disclosure and platform responsibility, not outright censorship. The proposals he discusses include visible disclaimers for synthetic content, automated detection requirements for large platforms above a user threshold, and creator declarations to identify AI-generated media. He links this to a broader idea he calls “truth sovereignty,” or a country’s capacity to set workable standards for authenticity in its own democratic environment.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Verification infrastructure and maintaining usability</h2>
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<p>Maheshwari’s most concrete proposal is to build a verification infrastructure for media, analogous to India’s Aadhaar system, the biometric identity framework used at a massive scale. The system authenticates identity through biometrics such as iris scans and fingerprints, reducing friction in access to services and enabling trust at scale.</p>
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<p>He imagines a similar logic for content: provenance frameworks that embed invisible but verifiable cryptographic signatures in media, allowing platforms and investigators to confirm their origin and detect tampering without changing what the content looks like. His analogies are designed to make this intuitive. A passport chip is invisible to the traveler but readable by authorities to confirm the document has not been altered. Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure, or HTTPS, works because browsers verify certificates in the background and surface a simple signal, like a padlock icon, to the user.</p>
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<p>Lapey’s challenge is the human layer. Even if courts, platforms and technical experts can verify provenance, will ordinary users trust the signal? Maheshwari concedes this gap is real. The system has to reduce cognitive load, not add to it. People do not need to understand cryptography, only the meaning of the label: verified origin, AI-generated or unknown source. Building literacy, testing what disclosures actually work and aligning platforms with standards are, in his view, where “the rubber will hit the road.”</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Closing stakes</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Lapey and Maheshwari end where they began: Deepfakes threaten democracies less by spreading a particular lie than by making truth feel unreachable. Transparency and provenance can help societies sort good actors from bad ones without creating a centralized ministry of truth, but only if governance, platforms and public understanding evolve quickly enough to preserve a shared reality.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer author Catherine Lapey speaks with Manish Maheshwari, former head of Twitter India, an AI entrepreneur and a Mason Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School focused on AI governance and digital public goods. Their core worry is not simply that synthetic media can trick people into believing a…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Catherine Lapey and Manish Maheshwari discuss how deepfakes threaten democracy by undermining shared reality, not just by spreading individual lies. The danger comes from hyperrealism and near-zero-cost mass production versus costly verification. Maheshwari proposes provenance systems like Aadhaar or HTTPS-style signals to restore trust without centralizing “truth.””
post-date=”Jan 17, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Deepfakes and Democracy: Why the Next Election Could Be Decided by AI” slug-data=”fo-talks-deepfakes-and-democracy-why-the-next-election-could-be-decided-by-ai”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/business/technology/fo-talks-deepfakes-and-democracy-why-the-next-election-could-be-decided-by-ai/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Deepfakes-and-Democracy-Why-the-Next-Election-Could-Be-Decided-by-AI-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Deepfakes-and-Democracy-Why-the-Next-Election-Could-Be-Decided-by-AI-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Deepfakes-and-Democracy-Why-the-Next-Election-Could-Be-Decided-by-AI-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/5zDbJmfG-gE?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Deepfakes and Democracy: Why the Next Election Could Be Decided by AI</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160278″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Manish-Maheshwari-150×150.jpg.webp” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160278″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/manish-maheshwari”>Manish Maheshwari</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/catherine-lapey’>Catherine Lapey</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 17, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Israel-Recognizing-Somaliland-Is-About-Turkey-Iran-and-the-Future-of-Middle-East-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/5LCoZUDWNgY”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/josef-olmert’>Josef Olmert</a>”
post_date=”January 16, 2026 07:05″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/middle-east-news/fo-talks-israel-recognizing-somaliland-is-about-turkey-iran-and-the-future-of-middle-east/” pid=”160248″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Josef Olmert, a former Israeli government official and Middle East scholar, discuss Israel’s official recognition of Somaliland, the self-declared republic that broke away from Somalia in 1991. Rather than treating the decision as a symbolic diplomatic gesture, this conversation situates it within a widening geopolitical contest stretching from the Horn of Africa to the eastern Mediterranean. Olmert argues that geography, energy politics and post–October 7 strategic recalibration explain why Israel moved when it did — and why the implications reach far beyond Somaliland itself.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Geography as strategy</h2>
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<p>Olmert begins with the simplest explanation: geography. Somaliland sits on the northern edge of the Horn of Africa, overlooking the Gulf of Aden and adjacent to the Red Sea’s southern approaches. From an Israeli perspective, this location matters for two reasons. First, it offers proximity to Iran and Yemen, where the Houthi movement has emerged as a direct security concern. Second, it places Israel near some of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.</p>
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<p>Somaliland’s position shortens strategic distances and provides leverage in a region where control of sea lanes increasingly overlaps with missile, drone and naval threats. In this sense, recognition is not an ideological statement about Somali politics but a calculated move rooted in deterrence and access.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Turkish element</h2>
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<p>A central theme of the discussion is what Olmert calls the “Turkish element.” Turkey has expanded its footprint in Somalia over the past decade, combining military presence with economic ambitions. According to Turkish claims, offshore oil reserves near Somalia may amount to 30–40 billion barrels, with drilling planned to begin in 2026. At the same time, the Turkish capital of Ankara has grown increasingly hostile toward a developing energy partnership linking Israel, Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean.</p>
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<p>That partnership is already operational, drawing on Israel’s offshore gas reserves and routing energy toward Europe via Cyprus and Greece. Turkey argues that the project violates the rights of Northern Cyprus, a territory occupied by Turkey and recognized only by Ankara. Olmert interprets Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as part of a broader pattern of “mutual deterrence:” Israel positions itself near Turkey’s African interests as Turkey pressures Israel’s Mediterranean energy plans.</p>
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<p>As a result, the chessboard widens. Somaliland is becoming one square in a larger contest between two regional powers whose rivalry is no longer confined to rhetoric.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Ethiopia, the UAE and quiet alignments</h2>
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<p>Beyond Turkey, Olmert emphasizes the importance of Ethiopia, a rapidly growing regional power with a population approaching 130 million. Landlocked Ethiopia has sought access to the sea, including proposals to lease parts of Somaliland’s coastline. This ambition intersects with Egyptian anxieties over the Nile River, particularly Ethiopia’s massive dam project, which the Egyptian capital of Cairo views as an existential threat.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The United Arab Emirates plays a pivotal role here. The UAE already operates a military port in Somaliland and has maintained de facto relations with the territory for years. Notably, it did not join Arab or African condemnations of Israel. Olmert reads this silence as evidence of a growing informal alignment among Israel, the UAE and other regional actors who prioritize strategic interests over formal adherence to inherited borders.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>From passivity to activity after October 7</h2>
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<p>For Olmert, the recognition of Somaliland reflects a deeper shift in Israeli foreign policy following the infamous October 7 terror attacks. For years, Israel under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pursued a strategy of containment and passivity — avoiding escalation while assuming time worked in Israel’s favor. October 7 shattered that assumption.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Olmert describes the post-October 7 recalibration as a move “from passivity to activity,” with Israel seeking alliances and leverage rather than standing apart. “Israel has become an actor within the system of Middle East politics,” he says, rather than an isolated outlier. Somaliland fits this new posture: a willingness to accept diplomatic risk in exchange for strategic positioning.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Domestic politics also play a role. Netanyahu, under intense internal pressure, benefits from actions that reset the political agenda. Recognition forces media attention outward and reframes leadership as initiative rather than reaction. Olmert acknowledges this as a political calculation but argues it does not negate the strategic logic behind the move.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Sovereignty, self-determination and fragmentation</h2>
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<p>The conversation then broadens to a more structural question: Are borders becoming less sacrosanct? Somaliland has existed as a de facto state for over three decades, holding elections and managing peaceful transfers of power despite clan divisions. Somalia, by contrast, remains fractured and heavily influenced by Islamist militancy.</p>
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<p>Olmert cautions against universalizing the Somaliland case. While some states may fragment, others retain strong central authority. Ethiopia, Nigeria and other large states demonstrate that secessionist movements can still be contained. The emerging pattern, he suggests, is case-by-case rather than systemic collapse.</p>
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<p>Still, examples abound: Libya remains divided between east and west. Sudan is engulfed in civil war. Yemen functions as multiple political entities. Syria is split into zones of influence. Somaliland’s recognition highlights a tension long embedded in international law between state sovereignty and self-determination — a tension now resurfacing as power balances shift.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Risks of overreach</h2>
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<p>Despite his analytical sympathy for Israel’s decision, Olmert repeatedly warns against overextension. Israel is small, its margin for error limited. Strategic confidence can easily slide into strategic hubris. “History is known only retrospectively,” he cautions, arguing that what appears momentous today may look different once regional reactions unfold.</p>
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<p>Turkey remains unpredictable. Iran faces domestic unrest but retains disruptive capacity. The United States, under US President Donald Trump, offers support that is politically potent but strategically volatile. In such an environment, Somaliland represents both opportunity and risk.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A calculated gamble</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Israel’s recognition of Somaliland signals a more assertive foreign policy, tighter alignment with select Arab states and a willingness to contest rivals beyond traditional theaters. It also underscores a changing regional order in which informal alliances and de facto realities increasingly matter more than inherited legal frameworks.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Whether Somaliland becomes a lasting strategic asset or a diplomatic liability remains uncertain. Olmert sees, however, that Israel is no longer content to remain on the margins of regional politics. It is moving pieces across a much larger board and accepting the consequences that come with that choice.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Josef Olmert, a former Israeli government official and Middle East scholar, discuss Israel’s official recognition of Somaliland, the self-declared republic that broke away from Somalia in 1991. Rather than treating the decision as a symbolic diplomatic gesture,…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Atul Singh and Josef Olmert examine why Israel has recognized Somaliland. Geography, energy routes and rivalry with Turkey may drive the decision, marking a shift from Israeli passivity to active regional strategy after the October 7 attacks. The discussion situates Somaliland within broader debates over sovereignty, fragmentation and emerging Middle Eastern alignments.”
post-date=”Jan 16, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Israel Recognizing Somaliland Is About Turkey, Iran and the Future of Middle East” slug-data=”fo-talks-israel-recognizing-somaliland-is-about-turkey-iran-and-the-future-of-middle-east”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/middle-east-news/fo-talks-israel-recognizing-somaliland-is-about-turkey-iran-and-the-future-of-middle-east/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Israel-Recognizing-Somaliland-Is-About-Turkey-Iran-and-the-Future-of-Middle-East-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Israel-Recognizing-Somaliland-Is-About-Turkey-Iran-and-the-Future-of-Middle-East-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Israel-Recognizing-Somaliland-Is-About-Turkey-Iran-and-the-Future-of-Middle-East-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/5LCoZUDWNgY?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Israel Recognizing Somaliland Is About Turkey, Iran and the Future of Middle East</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160248″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Josef-Olmert-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160248″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/josef-olmert”>Josef Olmert</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 16, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Modi-Putin-Meeting-Kanwal-Sibal-Explains-Indias-Signal-to-Trump-and-Europe-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/JNMN5WbKZxM”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/kanwal-sibal’>Kanwal Sibal</a>”
post_date=”January 15, 2026 05:52″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/fo-talks-modi-putin-meeting-kanwal-sibal-explains-indias-signal-to-trump-and-europe/” pid=”160230″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and former Foreign Secretary of India Kanwal Sibal discuss the strategic meaning of the recent summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their conversation situates the meeting within a moment of heightened global uncertainty, marked by the Ukraine war, Western sanctions and growing pressure on India from both the United States and Europe. For Sibal, the summit is not merely a bilateral engagement but a deliberate signal about India’s insistence on strategic autonomy and its refusal to let external coercion dictate foreign policy choices.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The return of the annual summit</h2>
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<p>Sibal begins by emphasizing the symbolic and practical importance of reviving the annual India–Russia summit format, which was launched in 2000 and was interrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. These meetings are not routine diplomatic theater. They create a mechanism that mobilizes bureaucracies on both sides, forces attention to stalled initiatives and allows leaders to engage intensively over several days rather than in compressed multilateral sidelines.</p>
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<p>The timing matters. Sibal notes that the global environment is unusually unsettled, with energy markets, supply chains and security alignments under strain. The summit provided space to discuss not only bilateral issues but also broader geopolitical developments, including the Ukraine war and shifting dynamics between Washington and Moscow. From India’s perspective, such conversations are especially important because the Global South bears the indirect costs of the conflict through disruptions to energy and food security, even though it lacks leverage to force an end to the war.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Sanctions, oil and strategic autonomy</h2>
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<p>A central theme of the discussion is India’s resistance to Western pressure over its relationship with Russia. Sibal argues that US- and European Union-led sanctions regimes have extended far beyond Russia, affecting countries through financial controls, shipping restrictions and insurance mechanisms. He characterizes the sanctions as coercive and system-wide, with India becoming an indirect casualty.</p>
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<p>Oil stands as the most visible pressure point. Sibal notes that US President Donald Trump publicly demanded that India stop buying Russian oil, turning a commercial issue into a political test. Yielding, he argues, would have sent a damaging signal that India’s strategic autonomy is conditional. As he puts it, “it’s impossible geopolitically and in our national interest to dilute our ties with Russia.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Simultaneously, Sibal stresses the practical constraints. Indian public-sector and private firms must assess their exposure to global financial systems, insurance markets and compliance risks. Even without formal government directives, sanctions can still reduce oil flows by targeting tankers, insurers and payment channels. The result, he suggests, is a narrowing of options rather than a clean policy choice.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Defense dependence and economic imbalance</h2>
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<p>Sibal turns to defense ties, describing them as a structural reality rather than an ideological preference. A large share of India’s military equipment originated in Russia, including key air force and armored platforms that require continuous maintenance, spare parts and upgrades. Wartime pressures inside Russia complicate this relationship, but Sibal argues that disengagement is not feasible in the near term.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Still, he emphasizes India’s determination to move toward indigenous defense manufacturing. Joint ventures and technology transfer, rather than off-the-shelf purchases, are now the priority. He points to the BrahMos missile program as a model of successful co-development and notes that India is open to diversification, including French offers that promise deep technology transfer. Competition among suppliers, he suggests, strengthens India’s hand.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Economically, however, Sibal highlights a stark imbalance. India’s exports to Russia remain small even as total trade surged due to discounted Russian oil. That headline number, he warns, is fragile. If oil volumes decline, trade will fall sharply unless new export channels are built. Putin has instructed his government to explore ways to increase imports from India. Discussions are underway to reduce Russian regulatory and non-tariff barriers.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Sibal also outlines concrete outcomes from the summit: a logistics agreement to allow Russian naval and air assets to use Indian ports and airfields; a mobility arrangement discussed to send tens of thousands of Indian workers to Russia for construction and agriculture; and expanded cooperation in the Arctic, to train Indians to operate icebreakers and explore the possibility of building them in India.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Multipolarity and the Russia–China–India balance</h2>
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<p>The summit fits squarely within India’s broader commitment to multipolarity. The capital of New Delhi does not seek confrontation with the Group of 7 forum, but it resists a world in which Western dominance hardens into a permanent hierarchy. If Russia were isolated or marginalized, global power would concentrate further, shrinking the space India needs as a rising power.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>This logic also shapes India’s approach to the Russia–China–India triangle. Sibal acknowledges that the Russia–China relationship has grown stronger, an unfavorable development for India. Diluting ties with Moscow would only deepen Russia’s dependence on Beijing. Maintaining engagement, by contrast, gives Russia alternatives and preserves India’s leverage.</p>
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<p>As an Asian power, India cannot disengage from regional forums or “vacate Asia.” Continued participation in platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reflects both geographic reality and strategic necessity.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Europe, Ukraine and an uncertain endgame</h2>
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<p>Isackson presses Sibal on Europe’s role, and Sibal describes a complicated mix of engagement and friction. European leaders visited India early in the Ukraine war, urging condemnation of Russia, and the EU has since sanctioned some Indian firms for alleged violations of Western measures. Simultaneously, India continues serious engagement with Europe, including negotiations over a free trade agreement.</p>
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<p>Sibal is sharply critical of Europe’s posture on Ukraine, arguing that the EU has shifted from being seen as a peace project to a more militarized stance. In his view, European leaders have trapped themselves in maximalist rhetoric that makes compromise politically costly. “Europe is being seen as warmongering,” he says, a perception that has eroded Europe’s standing in parts of the Global South.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>On France and Germany, Sibal suggests that domestic politics, historical memory and dependence on the US constrain European autonomy. He doubts that current rearmament rhetoric can be sustained economically or strategically over time.</p>
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<p>Asked whether the war is nearing an end, Sibal remains skeptical. Divisions between the US and Europe make a settlement difficult, and European leaders may resist any Trump-led initiative that appears to concede territory or limit NATO’s future expansion.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Ultimately, Sibal frames the Modi–Putin summit as both reassuring and a warning: alongside reassurance that long-standing relationships still operate with continuity stands a warning that India will pursue alternative strategies if pressured.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and former Foreign Secretary of India Kanwal Sibal discuss the strategic meaning of the recent summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their conversation situates the meeting within a moment of…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Peter Isackson and Kanwal Sibal examine the strategic significance of the Modi–Putin summit at a time of sanctions, tariffs and global instability. India cannot dilute Russian ties without undermining its strategic autonomy and defense. The discussion situates India’s Russia policy within a multipolar world shaped by sanctions pressure and European alignment on Ukraine.”
post-date=”Jan 15, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Modi–Putin Meeting: Kanwal Sibal Explains India’s Signal to Trump and Europe” slug-data=”fo-talks-modi-putin-meeting-kanwal-sibal-explains-indias-signal-to-trump-and-europe”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/fo-talks-modi-putin-meeting-kanwal-sibal-explains-indias-signal-to-trump-and-europe/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Modi-Putin-Meeting-Kanwal-Sibal-Explains-Indias-Signal-to-Trump-and-Europe-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Modi-Putin-Meeting-Kanwal-Sibal-Explains-Indias-Signal-to-Trump-and-Europe-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Modi-Putin-Meeting-Kanwal-Sibal-Explains-Indias-Signal-to-Trump-and-Europe-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/JNMN5WbKZxM?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Modi–Putin Meeting: Kanwal Sibal Explains India’s Signal to Trump and Europe</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160230″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Kanwal_portrait-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160230″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/kanwal-sibal”>Kanwal Sibal</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/peter-isackson’>Peter Isackson</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 15, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Immigration-War-Economic-Collapse-Will-the-Global-Order-Change-in-2026-Fair-Observer-Exclusive.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/FRUHlAso59k”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle’>Glenn Carle</a>”
post_date=”January 14, 2026 07:32″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-exclusive-immigration-war-economic-collapse-will-the-global-order-change-in-2026/” pid=”160211″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and <a href=”https://fointell.com/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>FOI</a> Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, look ahead and predict the world’s biggest challenges in 2026. To structure their forecast, they borrow the SPERM framework — Social, Political, Economic, Religious and Military factors — and argue that this year will be defined by the way multiple stresses reinforce one another. Immigration pressure, democratic dysfunction, market distortions and strategic competition are not separate stories. They are connected pressures on social cohesion and state capacity.</p>
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<li><strong>Immigration will be a hot ticket issue around the world</strong></li>
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<p>Atul begins with immigration because it is already driving elections and may drive more. In the US, border politics helped deliver US President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory. In the UK, the 2016 Brexit vote was, at its core, a demand to “take back control,” especially of borders. In France and Germany, immigration has moved from a background concern to a central axis of political competition.</p>
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<p>However, this is not a purely Western story. Atul stresses that “Third World” states are also tightening and reacting. Pakistan is deporting millions of Afghans back to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. India worries about Bangladeshi migration altering the demography in border regions. In South Africa, the vigilante movement Operation Dudula has targeted undocumented migrants — especially children — with street-level intimidation.</p>
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<p>Atul underscores the demographic contradiction inside Europe: Aging societies with falling birthrates need workers, but large-scale inflows intensify cultural and political strain. He bolsters the argument with numbers that make assimilation debates unavoidable:</p>
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<li>US: As of January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants, 15.4% of the population — the highest number ever recorded.</li>
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<li>United Kingdom: 10.7 million immigrants at the 2021/2022 census, about 16% of the population, with both number and share rising since.</li>
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<li>France: Estimates of immigrants range from 10.3% to 13.8%.</li>
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<li>Germany: 17.4 million immigrants in 2024, 20.9% of the population — the EU’s largest immigrant destination.</li>
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<li>The Netherlands: Over 3 million immigrants out of 18 million total as of January 1, 2025, about 16.8%.</li>
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<p>From there, the conversation moves into the cultural edge of the immigration debate. Immigration becomes explosive when it collides with questions of identity and religion in secular states. Atul frames it as a clash between a Western secular order and the social norms many Muslim migrants bring with them. Europe is experiencing both Islamism and Islamophobia at the same time, with rising numbers feeling threatened by the “other.”</p>
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<p>Their forecast in this section is blunt: Immigration remains a global driver of polarization, and far-right parties thrive as mainstream politics struggles to reconcile labor needs with assimilation pressures. As that tension persists, Atul and Glenn expect democratic practices to fray, and social unrest to remain a regular feature of politics rather than an exception.</p>
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<li><strong>US democracy faces a systemic challenge</strong></li>
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<p>If immigration is the social spark, Atul frames the American political story as institutional decay. The headline example is the 43-day government shutdown, triggered when Congress failed to pass a budget for the fiscal year beginning September 1, 2025. In theory, Congress’s “power of the purse” should produce annual appropriations that keep the government functioning smoothly. In practice, since the start of the 21st century, Congress has repeatedly missed deadlines and relied on continuing resolutions (CRs) — stopgap funding that keeps programs alive until lawmakers can pass regular appropriations. The fact that the US legislature cannot reliably do its most basic job becomes, for them, a symptom of a deeper disease: polarization so intense that governance itself becomes episodic.</p>
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<p>Atul describes the mental map each camp has of the other. Republicans see Democrats as “woke totalitarians,” while Democrats see Republicans as “racist fascists.” As Glenn has said repeatedly, the country is more divided than at any point since 1861, and today’s divide exceeds the unrest and violence of the 1960s and 1970s. Unlike then, this divide is now embedded in institutions rather than primarily in streets.</p>
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<p>This polarization has led to dysfunction in Congress and empowered the White House. Over decades, an “imperial presidency” has developed. Now, the theory of the unitary executive has emerged: The president needs power because Congress cannot act. Atul points back to how US President George W. Bush accelerated this expansion of presidential power by using executive orders, executive privilege, emergency powers and agency rulemaking to bypass gridlock. The Global War on Terror became a convenient justification for increased executive authority, including policies that normalized coercive practices and “justified torture.” The result is a presidency Atul and Glenn describe as king-like: stronger, more insulated and with fewer checks and balances than intended by the constitution.</p>
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<p>They make a cautious forecast: Once authority centralizes, it is hard to restore the old balance. Even if a majority of the public opposes the drift, some of the erosion of checks and balances becomes permanent by inertia. Restoration is possible, but partial — and likely contested.</p>
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<li><strong>The far right will become stronger in Europe</strong></li>
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<p>Atul then widens the lens: Europe is not immune to the same spiral of immigration pressure, economic anxiety and institutional paralysis. He starts with the general pattern: Few European democracies now produce clear majorities, which means fragile coalitions, weak mandates and frequent breakdowns.</p>
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<p>Even the UK now conforms to this pattern despite leaving the EU. The center-left Labour Party’s 2024 “loveless landslide” has not translated into decisive governance, while British Member of Parliament (MP) Nigel Farage’s rise signals a persistent appetite for insurgent populism. In France, the paralysis is more explicit: Parliament has three amorphous blocs and cannot cohere around budgets or reforms. In 2025, lawmakers failed to agree on a budget and resorted to a stopgap <em>loi spéciale</em> to carry the state into January at 2025 spending levels. Atul’s conclusion is stark: France looks “ungovernable.”</p>
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<p>Germany is the bellwether. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party continues its inexorable rise. Atul cites a late November event in the German town of Giessen where the youth wing Generation Germany urged “mass remigration” of foreigners — language meant to sound administratively tidy while implying dramatic expulsions.</p>
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<p>Glenn and Atul also emphasize that the increased power of the far right is no longer a fringe phenomenon confined to a couple of outliers. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have far-right governments. Italy, Finland and Croatia feature far-right parties in government. Even Sweden, long treated as the progressive archetype, is now governed in a way that depends on the support of the Sweden Democrats.</p>
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<p>The conversation ties this to a longer historical rhythm: the post-1945 European settlement — peace, integration and liberal norms — may have been closer to an aberration than a permanent achievement. The implication is not inevitability of war, but fragility of the assumptions that EU integration could steadily deepen regardless of social and economic strain.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn foresee that Europe faces an existential democratic challenge. The nativist right continues to grow, and that growth threatens not only domestic liberal norms but also EU integration and NATO cohesion. Both of these rely on member states sustaining political consent for compromise and collective security. This consent is increasingly less forthcoming.</p>
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<li><strong>Increasing economic strains leading toward global recession</strong></li>
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<p>Atul and Glenn then pivot to economics, where they do not share the official optimism of either Goldman Sachs or the American government. They start with Washington’s upbeat narrative. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says 2026 can be “a very good year.” A major prop is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a tax-cutting law enacted in July 2025, which will soon deliver tangible benefits — including refunds reflecting retroactive tax cuts on 2025 income and reduced levies on monthly earnings. Citing Piper Sandler, they note that the “two years of tax cuts in one” amount to roughly $191 billion.</p>
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<p>An expansive fiscal policy is accompanied by a loose monetary policy, which should lead to increased economic activity. The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2024, and then again in September, October and December 2025, as layoffs mounted. Yet over a million jobs were lost in 2025, making it the worst year for layoffs since 2009. Atul situates 2025 historically with a short list of high-layoff years:</p>
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<li>2020: 2,227,725</li>
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<li>2001: 1,956,876</li>
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<li>2002: 1,373,906</li>
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<li>2009: 1,242,936</li>
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<li>2025: 1,170,821</li>
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<li>2003: 1,143,406</li>
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<p>It is true that growth data still looks strong: GDP rose 4.3% in Quarter 3. Goldman Sachs investment banking company projects 2.8% global growth in 2026 (versus 2.5% consensus) and expects the US to outperform at 2.6% (versus 2.0% consensus). Their quarterly US forecast: 3.5% (Quarter 1), 2.5% (Quarter 2), 2.1% (Quarter 3), 2.1% (Quarter 4) — driven, Goldman argues, by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts and easier financial conditions.</p>
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<p>But Atul and Glenn push back. They read positive projections as politically convenient and structurally misleading. Their historically-informed trends include mercantilism/protectionism, tax cuts and deficits, monetary pump-priming, more mergers and acquisitions (M&A), market distortions and a K-shaped economy where gains concentrate at the top. They believe the economy to be frothy and in danger of a crash.</p>
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<p>A concrete example of the “froth” is the increased M&A activity in the economy. The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance reported that US M&A volume hit $2.3 trillion in 2025, up 49% from 2024, with global M&A rising over 25% in 2025. Mega-deals returned: four $40 billion-plus US deals took place in 2025 compared with zero in 2024. Globally, there were 63 deals of $10 billion-plus through late November, exceeding the prior annual high set a decade earlier. Private equity is also roaring back, with global deal volume expected near $2 trillion — the biggest since 2021.</p>
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<p>Then comes the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble warning: $350 billion in AI capex, $100 billion debt-financed, triple the prior nine-year average. They flag “incestuous circular deals” as a sign of market mania — money cycling between the same firms and platforms. Valuations look stretched, with the S&P 500 posting a P/E ratio of 31. Note that historical long-term P/E ratios for the S&P 500 range from 16 to 20. Markets have posted three strong years in a row: 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024 and 17% in 2025. A correction seems overdue. Atul cites a back-of-the-envelope reality check from JPMorgan Chase: To earn 10% returns on projected AI capex by 2030, firms would need $650 billion in annual AI revenues — roughly $400 per year from every iPhone user.</p>
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<p>Economic weakness is not just an American story. China’s factories are running under capacity with weak demand and high unemployment. Europe faces aging demographics, low demand, high unemployment, heavy debt and low productivity. India risks “meltdown” from inefficient oligopolies and “tax terrorism” by rapacious bureaucrats who have suppressed demand.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn argue that the risk of a market crash, rising unemployment and recession is higher than consensus estimates suggest. Budget deficits, tariffs, immigration restrictions, labor shortages, extreme concentration of wealth in the top 1–5%, and heavy investment concentration in AI are all likely to act as brakes on economic growth.</p>
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<li><strong>Global race for critical minerals</strong></li>
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<p>China’s near-total control over many critical minerals and rare earth elements has become a central geopolitical concern. In its trade war with the US, Beijing has already demonstrated its willingness to weaponize export controls, restricting access not only to raw materials but also to technologies such as rare earth magnets. According to the US Geological Survey, 60 minerals are now classified as critical to national and economic security and the International Energy Agency projects sharply rising demand by 2030.</p>
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<p>As is now well known, the supply chain of critical minerals is dangerously concentrated. The Democratic Republic of Congo produces more than 70% of the world’s cobalt, while China controls roughly 78% of cobalt processing and dominates rare earth refining. In response, the Trump administration has issued multiple executive orders and mobilized agencies, including the Departments of Commerce and Defense, the Export–Import Bank and the US International Development Finance Corporation to reduce dependence on China. Tools include loans, equity investments, price floors and long-term purchase agreements. Parallel diplomatic efforts include the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative and over $10 billion in joint commitments with Asian partners.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn forecast that competition over critical minerals will increasingly resemble earlier struggles over oil, shaping industrial policy, diplomacy and strategic rivalry in 2026, though supply diversification remains uncertain.</p>
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<li><strong>Europe faces a mega polycrisis</strong></li>
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<p>Europe’s pressures converge into what Atul calls a “mega polycrisis.” Political paralysis at national and EU levels collides with looming sovereign debt risks, suffocating regulation, low productivity and difficulty attracting talent. Immigration intensifies social strain, while bureaucratic elites appear disconnected from public sentiment.</p>
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<p>The crisis is social, political, economic, religious and military. Secular Europe is struggling to digest religious Muslim immigrants even as Russia is on the ascendant in Ukraine. The European welfare state model is under threat. Storm clouds are gathering over the aging continent even as mainstream political parties struggle to deal with the challenges. Populists are promising simple answers to complex questions and are on the rise.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn believe Europe is likely to evolve de facto into a continent of multiple speeds, with sustained strain on EU cohesion, the euro and NATO, as domestic fragmentation limits collective action.</p>
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<li><strong>Instability on the rise: failing, flailing and fracturing states</strong></li>
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<p>Atul and Glenn broaden the lens from a Europe facing a polycrisis to a global pattern of state fragility. They cite Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Libya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somaliland, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Afghanistan as cases where governance is weakening or collapsing. </p>
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<p>Some states like Afghanistan and Mali are failing. Others like India and Nigeria are flailing. Still others like Syria and Somaliland are fragmenting. The principle of state sovereignty is clashing with the principle of self-determination.</p>
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<p>The speed and scale of this instability signal a return to a harsher international environment as Pax Americana fades and a Hobbesian world reemerges.</p>
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<li><strong>Russia–Ukraine war comes to an end</strong></li>
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<p>The Russia–Ukraine war is now entering its final phase. Advisors to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speak of “the beginning of the end.” The Russians are ascendant on the battlefield and the Trump administration is pressuring Ukraine to make peace. Kyiv has reportedly agreed to most elements of the US 20-point plan. No longer is Ukraine hung up on NATO membership. It is willing to accept security guarantees instead. Similarly, the country will not join the EU either.</p>
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<p>Ukraine does not want to give up land, though. But the country may not get its wish because Trump favors a land-for-peace settlement. He is likely to force this deal on the Ukrainian government. Growing voter fatigue in Europe, driven by perceptions of corruption and the presence of young Ukrainian men in European cities, is weakening public support for continued aid. </p>
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<p>In a polycrisis, European politicians will find it really difficult to send even a tiny amount of taxpayer money to Ukraine. A weary Kyiv is likely to make peace with Moscow in 2026 because US or EU support will weaken.</p>
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<li><strong>Tensions turning dangerous in East Asia</strong></li>
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<p>Risks of conflict in East Asia are rising, too. At the end of the year, China’s Justice Mission 2025 live-fire exercises followed a record $11 billion US arms sale to Taiwan. Taiwan reported 130 Chinese aircraft and 14 naval vessels operating in the exercise, with 90 sorties entering its air defense identification zone. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te condemned the drills as intimidation, while Beijing accused Taiwan and Japan of provocation and slammed the US weapons sale. </p>
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<p>Glenn calls China’s diplomatic outrage “a tempest in a Beijing-made teapot.” Atul also points to Beijing’s rising tensions not only with Taipei but also with Tokyo. East Asia is now going through its most dangerous period since World War II. Rising nationalism and miscalculation could cause conflict and catastrophe.</p>
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<li><strong>The Middle East: Israel, Iran and the end of regional order</strong></li>
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<p>Glenn closes by turning to the Middle East, a region undergoing tectonic realignment. While Israel currently enjoys overwhelming military dominance following the Gaza War — having neutralized Hamas, liquidated Hezbollah’s leadership, shattered Syria’s conventional military capacity and secured its borders — this dominance has not produced stability. Instead, it has destroyed the regional order and inaugurated a new period of increased instability.</p>
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<p>The Middle East is reverting toward what English philosopher Thomas Hobbes described as a state of nature. The postcolonial states of Syria, Libya and Yemen have disintegrated de facto, if not de jure. Contending areas in these countries are now dominated by different militias, foreign intelligence services and their proxy forces. Lebanon remains deeply divided, Iraq only partially sovereign and Iran internally strained by economic pressure, demographic stress and recurring protests. The region’s problem is now the absence of legitimate, durable state authority.</p>
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<p>This decline in state authority has come at a time the US is pulling back from the region. The old traditional alliances are loosening. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are moving closer to China, recalibrating their foreign policy away from exclusive dependence on Washington. Turkey, invoking its Ottoman legacy, is expanding its influence across Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Pax American is yielding to a more fragmented and transactional regional order.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn do not forecast imminent large-scale war, but persistent instability. Skirmishes, proxy conflicts and sudden escalations will continue as weak Middle Eastern states fracture further and external powers compete for influence. The Middle East exemplifies the broader global condition entering 2026: an erosion of the post–Cold War security architecture and a world in which volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity are no longer episodic, but permanent.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, look ahead and predict the world’s biggest challenges in 2026. To structure their forecast, they borrow the SPERM framework —…”
post_summery=”In the December 2025 episode of FO° Exclusive, Atul Singh and Glenn Carle assess the global outlook for 2026 using the SPERM framework, arguing that immigration pressures, democratic dysfunction and economic distortion are reinforcing one another. Far-right movements, market fragility and geopolitical rivalry are accelerating institutional breakdown. The result is a world of increased volatility as Pax Americana evaporates.”
post-date=”Jan 14, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Exclusive: Immigration, War, Economic Collapse: Will the Global Order Change in 2026?” slug-data=”fo-exclusive-immigration-war-economic-collapse-will-the-global-order-change-in-2026″>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-exclusive-immigration-war-economic-collapse-will-the-global-order-change-in-2026/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Immigration-War-Economic-Collapse-Will-the-Global-Order-Change-in-2026-Fair-Observer-Exclusive.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/FRUHlAso59k?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Exclusive: Immigration, War, Economic Collapse: Will the Global Order Change in 2026?</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160211″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Glenn-Carle-100×100.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-160211″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle”>Glenn Carle</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 14, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Is-the-Quad-Still-Relevant-Why-Southeast-Asia-No-Longer-Trusts-This-Alliance-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/xnJVmRmxm9g”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/herman-joseph-santos-kraft’>Herman Joseph Santos Kraft</a>”
post_date=”January 09, 2026 06:17″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-live-is-the-quad-still-relevant-why-southeast-asia-no-longer-trusts-this-alliance/” pid=”160131″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Haruko Satoh, an eminent geopolitical analyst at the Osaka School of International Public Policy, holds a roundtable conversation with Herman Joseph S. Kraft from the University of the Philippines and Kei Koga from Nanyang Technological University, on how Southeast Asian states perceive the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) — the informal strategic forum linking the United States, Japan, India and Australia. In Southeast Asia, the Quad is rarely judged on its own terms, but read through two overlapping anxieties: US–China rivalry and the fear that new “minilateral” clubs weaken Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality — the idea that ASEAN should remain the region’s primary diplomatic hub. Because the Quad’s purpose has shifted over time, perceptions have split by country, by strategic exposure and by how much faith local elites still place in ASEAN’s convening power.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A Quad that begins with an omission</h2>
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<p>Satoh frames the Quad’s problem as structural. The grouping talks about the “Indo-Pacific,” but Southeast Asia sits at the geographic and diplomatic center of that map, and yet ASEAN is not in the room. That absence, she suggests, is one reason the Quad struggles to inspire confidence. Regional states ask what it stands for, and whether it is meant to work with ASEAN or around it.</p>
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<p>Additionally, Satoh hints at a second imbalance. The Quad’s members are strategically asymmetrical. India’s tradition of nonalignment, Australia’s alliance dependence and Japan’s deep economic interdependence with China complicate any clean bloc identity. Even before policy is discussed, the Quad arrives in Southeast Asia as an external design with unclear regional buy-in.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The “counter-China” story that won’t die</h2>
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<p>Koga argues that the Quad’s reputational starting point still shapes everything that follows. When the Quad was resurrected in 2017, it landed in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s strategic framing — especially the 2017 National Security Strategy, which identifies “China and Russia as a revisionist power.” In Southeast Asia, that context hardens an early impression: The Quad is less a provider of stability than a mechanism for balancing — or containing — China.</p>
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<p>The Quad countries later tried to dilute that image. They emphasized ASEAN centrality, talked more about regional rules and norms, and, under US President Joe Biden’s administration, built working groups around public goods — health, climate, technology and supply chains. Yet the first impression persists. Even when Southeast Asian observers acknowledge that the Quad has evolved, suspicion lingers that the public-goods agenda is secondary to strategic competition. The result is a credibility gap: The Quad may be changing, but many in the region assume its original logic remains intact beneath the messaging.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Southeast Asia is not one audience</h2>
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<p>Kraft pushes against the habit of treating Southeast Asia as a single strategic mind. Drawing on the ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute’s annual State of Southeast Asia Survey (which samples regional experts), he describes a region that simultaneously worries about the Quad and still finds it potentially useful.</p>
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<p>Two recurring concerns dominate. First is ASEAN centrality: experts fear the Quad could compete with ASEAN-led mechanisms and dilute ASEAN’s role as an agenda-setter. Second is forced choice: the Quad may intensify US–China rivalry and pressure smaller states into alignment, provoking sharper Chinese responses. Simultaneously, if the Quad delivers tangible public goods and works in a complementary way with ASEAN, it could help cushion the region from the worst spillovers of major-power competition.</p>
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<p>Country differences matter. Maritime states with acute security frictions with China, especially the Philippines and Vietnam, tend to view the Quad more positively. To them, balancing power in the South China Sea feels immediately relevant. By contrast, parts of continental Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Cambodia and Laos, often show greater skepticism, reflecting different threat perceptions and different degrees of reliance on China.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Trump 2.0 and the problem of US commitment</h2>
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<p>The conversation then turns from perception to durability. Koga argues that the current Trump administration is unlikely to treat regional order-building as a goal in itself. “They are not, like, really concerned about the future of the international rules-based order,” he posits. If Washington deprioritizes multilateral frameworks, the Quad’s identity shifts again — this time not because of messaging, but because of resourcing and leadership.</p>
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<p>Kraft reinforces the point with a blunt assessment of Trump’s instinctive posture. Trump’s first administration showed a “tendency to be suspicious of multilaterals,” he says. He also points to an emerging strategic style that privileges bilateral transactions over alliance stewardship, noting that a recent US strategy document contains “absolutely no reference to working with allies.” In that world, the Quad becomes less a US-led platform and more a test of whether Japan, Australia and India are willing and able to carry it.</p>
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<p>Without consistent US leadership, the Quad could drift from a rules-and-norms narrative toward a more traditional balance-of-power arrangement, reinforcing the very “counter-China” interpretation the group has tried to escape.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Philippines, the “Squad” and ASEAN’s last advantage</h2>
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<p>Nowhere is the region’s strategic squeeze clearer than in the Philippines. Kraft worries that the response by its capital of Manila to Chinese pressure is pushing it toward deeper militarization and tighter operational alignment with US allies. The logic is often framed as a necessity — Manila has no choice but to seek partners to balance China. Yet this posture can isolate the Philippines inside ASEAN, where several members remain wary of being pulled into intensified rivalry.</p>
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<p>This is the context for the so-called “Squad” — a looser maritime security arrangement linking the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. It may strengthen deterrence and coordination, but it also risks sharpening regional polarization and increasing the chance of crisis dynamics in contested waters.</p>
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<p>Against that backdrop, Satoh, Kraft and Koga all defend ASEAN’s continued relevance, even if it is frequently dismissed as a “talk shop.” Koga stresses that talking by itself can be strategically valuable, as it convenes rivals, lowers temperatures and buys time for diplomacy. Kraft warns that ASEAN’s convening power is only as strong as member commitment — and internal fractures, such as the Thailand–Cambodia dispute, make ASEAN more vulnerable to outside influence-peddling.</p>
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<p>Over the next five years, the most plausible path will not be a single dominant architecture, but a proliferation of overlapping groupings — some focused on public goods, others on maritime security and many designed as hedges against uncertainty. The challenge for the Quad, Satoh suggests, is volume control. It can be a useful quartet, but only if it plays in harmony with the concert hall that still brings the region together.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong><em>[Note: This FO Talks/FO Live is part of the Osaka School of International Public Policy’s “Peace and Human Security in Asia: Toward a Meaningful Japan-Korea Partnership” project supported by the Korea Foundation.]</em></strong></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Haruko Satoh, an eminent geopolitical analyst at the Osaka School of International Public Policy, holds a roundtable conversation with Herman Joseph S. Kraft from the University of the Philippines and Kei Koga from Nanyang Technological University, on how Southeast Asian states perceive the…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Live, Haruko Satoh, Herman Joseph S. Kraft and Kei Koga discuss how Southeast Asian states perceive the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Seen through US–China rivalry and anxieties over ASEAN centrality, it inspires sharply divided reactions across the region. Can it adapt to regional realities, or does it risk reinforcing polarization amid uncertain US leadership?”
post-date=”Jan 09, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Live: Is the Quad Still Relevant? Why Southeast Asia No Longer Trusts This Alliance” slug-data=”fo-live-is-the-quad-still-relevant-why-southeast-asia-no-longer-trusts-this-alliance”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-live-is-the-quad-still-relevant-why-southeast-asia-no-longer-trusts-this-alliance/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Is-the-Quad-Still-Relevant-Why-Southeast-Asia-No-Longer-Trusts-This-Alliance-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Is-the-Quad-Still-Relevant-Why-Southeast-Asia-No-Longer-Trusts-This-Alliance-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Is-the-Quad-Still-Relevant-Why-Southeast-Asia-No-Longer-Trusts-This-Alliance-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/xnJVmRmxm9g?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Live: Is the Quad Still Relevant? Why Southeast Asia No Longer Trusts This Alliance</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160131″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Herman-Joseph-Santos-Kraft-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160131″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/herman-joseph-santos-kraft”>Herman Joseph Santos Kraft</a>, <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/kei-koga’>Kei Koga</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/haruko-satoh’>Haruko Satoh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 09, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Were-Going-To-Keep-the-Oil-Trump-Breaks-the-Rules-as-China-Watches-Closely-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/-_xAa9V2dUQ”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joseph-bouchard’>Joseph Bouchard</a>”
post_date=”January 08, 2026 06:12″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-were-going-to-keep-the-oil-trump-breaks-the-rules-as-china-watches-closely/” pid=”160105″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>In this episode of FO° Talks, Fair Observer’s Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with journalist and researcher Joseph Bouchard about the US’ seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker in international waters. The move marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and raises urgent questions about legality, regime change and the erosion of global norms. Bouchard situates the incident within Venezuela’s oil-dependent political economy and a longer history of US intervention in the region, while assessing how domestic US politics and global power competition shape the current moment.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The tanker seizure’s significance</h2>
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<p>Khattar Singh opens by asking what makes the seizure so consequential. Bouchard explains that this is the first time the US military has taken direct possession of a Venezuelan-owned oil tanker. Objectively, the ship was stateless and intercepted in international waters, though it belonged to <em>Petróleos de Venezuela</em>, SA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil and natural gas company. US officials claim the cargo was bound for Cuba and allege that proceeds from similar shipments have funded sanctioned groups.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Bouchard emphasizes the novelty of the action, noting that while sanctions on Venezuelan oil are not new, physical seizure represents a qualitative shift. As he puts it, “This is really the first time the US does this, at least in the Venezuelan context where US military forces seized an oil tanker.” US President Donald Trump reinforced the escalation by publicly declaring, “We’re going to keep the oil.”</p>
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<p>The seizure fits within a broader pattern of pressure, including new sanctions on additional tankers and an expanded US military presence in the region. Together, these steps signal a move from financial coercion toward direct enforcement.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Oil, sanctions and Venezuela’s political economy</h2>
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<p>Oil lies at the center of Venezuela’s vulnerability. The fossil fuel accounts for roughly 80% of the country’s exports and between 20% and 25% of its GDP. US policy has increasingly targeted this sector since 2014, beginning with the Venezuelan Defense of Human Rights and Civil Society Act, which authorizes sanctions on individuals and industries deemed to obstruct democracy.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Historically, Bouchard traces the roots of the crisis to Venezuela’s oil boom of the 1970s and 1980s. He argues that failure to equitably redistribute oil wealth fueled mass discontent, culminating in the 1989 Caracazo protests and a violent state crackdown. That moment, he suggests, created the opening for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, whose redistributive platform reshaped Venezuelan politics.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Maduro has sought to preserve Chávez’s patronage system by using oil revenues to fund social programs and maintain military loyalty. By disrupting oil flows, Washington aims to weaken that foundation and force political change.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Legality, norms and competing power centers</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>A central theme of the conversation is legality. Bouchard argues that seizing a vessel in international waters likely violates international maritime law. He suggests the US could have waited until the tanker entered Cuban waters, where sanctions law is more established, but chose not to. He believes this choice reflects strategic calculation rather than legal necessity.</p>
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<p>Khattar Singh raises concerns about precedent: What would stop China from seizing a Taiwanese oil tanker under similar logic? Bouchard agrees, warning that such actions contribute to what he calls the “death of the norms-based international order.” He frames the episode as a return to power politics reminiscent of the US’s Monroe Doctrine, where strength, rather than rules, governs behavior.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>In a multipolar world, rivals like China and Russia are closely watching how far the US is willing to push unilateral enforcement and what new rules may emerge from these confrontations.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Regime change, domestic politics and Maduro’s strategy</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The discussion turns to US intentions. Bouchard outlines competing camps within Washington, drawing on insights shared by Professor Leonardo Vivas. One faction, led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, favors explicit regime change, while military leaders remain wary of large-scale intervention. Trump’s self-image as a “peace candidate” complicates the calculus, especially with elections approaching.</p>
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<p>Bouchard identifies opposition figure María Corina Machado as central to US thinking. While objectively a prominent anti-Maduro politician and recent Nobel Peace Prize recipient, Bouchard characterizes her as a long-time hardliner who has openly sought Maduro’s removal and advocates opening Venezuela’s economy to foreign interests.</p>
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<p>Maduro, meanwhile, is pursuing a contrasting strategy. He has launched an aggressive social media campaign portraying himself as a peace-seeker, even singing John Lennon’s 1971 song, “Imagine.” Bouchard describes him as a “fighter” who has adapted politically and learned to navigate US pressure. He argues that Maduro is now code-switching — shifting rhetoric to appeal to Trump personally — because personality often outweighs policy in the current administration.</p>
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<p>The episode concludes with a stark assessment: Oil seizures function both as economic weapons and psychological pressure, aimed at destabilizing Maduro while testing the limits of international order. Whether this marks a one-off escalation or the opening move in a broader confrontation remains uncertain — but whatever the case, the consequences will extend far beyond Venezuela.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
In this episode of FO° Talks, Fair Observer’s Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with journalist and researcher Joseph Bouchard about the US’ seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker in international waters. The move marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against Venezuelan President…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Joseph Bouchard discuss the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker in international waters and why it increases pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Bouchard links the seizure to Venezuela’s oil dependence and a push for regime change shaped by Washington’s domestic politics. All the while, China watches closely.”
post-date=”Jan 08, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: “We’re Going To Keep the Oil:” Trump Breaks the Rules as China Watches Closely” slug-data=”fo-talks-were-going-to-keep-the-oil-trump-breaks-the-rules-as-china-watches-closely”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-were-going-to-keep-the-oil-trump-breaks-the-rules-as-china-watches-closely/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Were-Going-To-Keep-the-Oil-Trump-Breaks-the-Rules-as-China-Watches-Closely-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Were-Going-To-Keep-the-Oil-Trump-Breaks-the-Rules-as-China-Watches-Closely-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Were-Going-To-Keep-the-Oil-Trump-Breaks-the-Rules-as-China-Watches-Closely-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/-_xAa9V2dUQ?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: “We’re Going To Keep the Oil:” Trump Breaks the Rules as China Watches Closely</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160105″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Joseph-Bouchard-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-160105″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joseph-bouchard”>Joseph Bouchard</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 08, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Can-Japan-and-South-Korea-Shape-the-Indo-Pacific-as-US–China-Rivalry-Intensifies-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/62jOtBPG-u8″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/jaewoo-choo’>Jaewoo Choo</a>”
post_date=”January 07, 2026 07:16″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-can-japan-and-south-korea-shape-the-indo-pacific-as-us-china-rivalry-intensifies/” pid=”160074″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Haruko Satoh, a geopolitical analyst at the Osaka School of International Public Policy, and Jaewoo Choo, a renowned professor on China at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, South Korea, revisit a 2024 Osaka conference roundtable (Asian Political and International Studies Association) supported by the Korea Foundation to reassess Japan–South Korea cooperation as the regional premise shifts: new leaders in Seoul and Tokyo, a sharper US–China rivalry, and US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. If both governments stop letting history disputes dominate the agenda, they can turn a volatile great-power contest into leverage — using policy coordination in security, supply chains and industrial strategy to protect their interests and shape outcomes.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Leadership turnover and a faster diplomatic rhythm</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Satoh opens by noting how leadership changes in Japan–Korea relations tend to generate “anxiety or optimism,” and therefore unpredictability. South Korea’s transition from President Yoon Suk Yeol to President Lee Jae Myung and Japan’s rapid succession of prime ministers create both risk and opportunity: Bilateral ties can regress into grievance politics, or they can consolidate a forward-looking partnership.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Choo argues that Lee moves quickly despite the lack of a traditional transition period. In his telling, Lee signals seriousness by traveling early, attending key summits, and — most symbolically — making Japan his first stop en route to the United States. The two leaders also revive “shuttle diplomacy,” emphasizing frequent contact and reciprocal visits. Choo frames Lee as someone who wants to de-escalate historical disputes and prioritize coordination with Japan and the US, describing Lee’s posture succinctly: “He’s ready to move on.”</p>
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<p>Satoh underscores the stakes of that choice. She sees earlier periods, especially when the “history card” becomes the centerpiece, as costly for both sides. She suggests that personalities in Tokyo mattered as much as disputes in Seoul. Even so, both speakers treat the current moment as unusually conducive to rebuilding habits of cooperation.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why the “anti-Japan card” weakens</h2>
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<p>A major part of the conversation tests a common fear in Tokyo: that a leadership change in Seoul automatically means a turn back toward confrontation over comfort women, forced labor and related legal battles. Satoh suggests that past governments sometimes leaned too heavily on these issues, while also acknowledging that Japanese leadership choices affected the diplomatic room available.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Choo argues that recent court rulings have “settled the score” in ways that make reopening certain disputes legally harder. Additionally, he claims the political incentive structure is shifting. Polling by Seoul National University’s Peace Unification Institute shows that South Korean public sentiment toward Japan has generally been friendlier than toward China or Russia, with Japan typically ranking behind the US and North Korea. Without elite incitement, anti-Japan mobilization has diminishing returns.</p>
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<p>That point matters because it reframes bilateral fragility. Instead of treating Japan–Korea ties as permanently hostage to historical memory, Satoh and Choo treat them as increasingly responsive to present-day strategic needs — especially economic security and managing China.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Trump 2.0 and the case for Japan–Korea leverage inside the alliance</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Satoh and Choo diverge in tone on Trump. Satoh emphasizes the US president’s transactional instincts and doubts that he is “strategic” in a conventional sense. Choo, by contrast, reads Trump as capable of strategic calculation, offering an anecdote about his interest in the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan as evidence of China-focused thinking.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Despite this difference, they reach the same structural conclusion: Japan and South Korea have bargaining power because they sit at the center of any US strategy that aims to check China economically and militarily. As Choo puts it, “Japan and Korea are actually quite lucky, because we are at the frontline countries.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Now, if Washington is serious about rebuilding US manufacturing capacity, tightening supply chains and sustaining deterrence in East Asia, Tokyo and Seoul are indispensable partners. That dependency, Satoh and Choo argue, should be translated into concrete gains during negotiations, rather than accepted as a one-way demand for alignment.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Industrial security and rebuilding bureaucratic channels</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The most detailed discussion concerns a division of labor across the US–Japan–Korea technology ecosystem: US raw technology, Japanese equipment and intermediary inputs, and South Korean manufacturing scale. Choo argues that China understands this structure and therefore pressures Seoul (and implicitly Tokyo) to negotiate constraints with Washington first — because many of the binding limits are US-imposed export controls and sanctions.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Semiconductors, which are a vital component in many consumer, healthcare and military technologies, are the test case. Choo describes US restrictions as a “ceiling,” limiting the sale of advanced chips to China. He notes the knock-on effects for Korean-owned production in China. He recommends that Tokyo and Seoul coordinate by approaching Washington together, identify where restrictions are unnecessary or counterproductive and bargain for tailored easing that preserves core security concerns while reducing economic damage. As he says, the goal is to “move the ceiling” through joint leverage rather than isolated pleading.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Satoh adds a governance angle: Japan and Korea need deeper, more routine policy coordination beyond foreign ministries — especially because this era is driven by industry and economic security. To conclude, Choo suggests the Asian nations revive the once-close working relationship between Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and Korea’s industry ministry, treating industrial policy cooperation as the backbone of a more resilient Japan–Korea partnership in an age of US–China rivalry.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Haruko Satoh, a geopolitical analyst at the Osaka School of International Public Policy, and Jaewoo Choo, a renowned professor on China at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, South Korea, revisit a 2024 Osaka conference roundtable (Asian Political and International Studies Association) supported by the…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Haruko Satoh and Jaewoo Choo explain why Japan–South Korea cooperation is growing valuable as the US–China rivalry intensifies. Leadership change need not trigger another downturn as in the past, because South Korean public opinion is generally friendlier toward Japan. As central players in high-tech supply chains, these nations can coordinate to bargain with Washington and shape regional outcomes.”
post-date=”Jan 07, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Can Japan and South Korea Shape the Indo-Pacific as US–China Rivalry Intensifies?” slug-data=”fo-talks-can-japan-and-south-korea-shape-the-indo-pacific-as-us-china-rivalry-intensifies”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-can-japan-and-south-korea-shape-the-indo-pacific-as-us-china-rivalry-intensifies/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Can-Japan-and-South-Korea-Shape-the-Indo-Pacific-as-US–China-Rivalry-Intensifies-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Can-Japan-and-South-Korea-Shape-the-Indo-Pacific-as-US–China-Rivalry-Intensifies-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Can-Japan-and-South-Korea-Shape-the-Indo-Pacific-as-US–China-Rivalry-Intensifies-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/62jOtBPG-u8?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Can Japan and South Korea Shape the Indo-Pacific as US–China Rivalry Intensifies?</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-160074″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Jaewoo-Choo-100×100.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-160074″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/jaewoo-choo”>Jaewoo Choo</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/haruko-satoh’>Haruko Satoh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 07, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Does-the-CIA-Control-American-Presidents-and-Media-John-Kiriakou-Explains-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/M0dum00g0fs”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/john-kiriakou’>John Kiriakou</a>”
post_date=”January 05, 2026 05:52″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-does-the-cia-control-american-presidents-and-media-john-kiriakou-explains/” pid=”160037″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and former CIA analyst and whistleblower John Kiriakou discuss the relationship between intelligence services, the presidency and the media. The conversation revolves around a blunt question: Are intelligence agencies, as they function today, compatible with democratic governance? Drawing on personal experience and historical cases, Kiriakou argues that secrecy, bureaucratic inertia and political incentives have pushed US intelligence far from democratic accountability.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Media access, pressure and propaganda</h2>
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<p>Kiriakou begins with what he considers the clearest evidence of democratic erosion: the relationship between intelligence agencies and the press. He cites a Freedom of Information Act request filed by American journalist Jason Leopold that uncovered extensive correspondence between the CIA’s Office of Public Affairs and American journalists. Among the most striking examples was NBC national security correspondent Ken Dilanian sending draft articles to the CIA for clearance before publication, allowing the agency to remove or add material.</p>
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<p>Kiriakou also recounts an episode involving a younger investigative journalist who abandoned a story after the CIA warned that publishing it would end access to off-the-record briefings and informal social events. This dynamic illustrates how access journalism replaces independent scrutiny. As Kiriakou puts it, “CIA propaganda in the public domain is not compatible with democracy.”</p>
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<p>Isackson pushes back slightly, suggesting that the media bears responsibility for accepting such constraints. Kiriakou partly agrees but insists that the problem is structural: Intelligence agencies seek influence by design, and the press has largely failed to resist. He extends the critique beyond the United States, arguing that media environments in France and the United Kingdom are even more constrained by legal and political pressure.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Presidents and the limits of control</h2>
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<p>The discussion then turns to the relationship between the CIA and the presidency. Isackson asks whether presidents truly command intelligence agencies or whether the balance of power often runs in the opposite direction. Kiriakou resists presenting a single answer, as the relationship varies by administration. Some presidents, such as George H.W. Bush, enjoyed close ties to the agency, while others were managed or ignored by it.</p>
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<p>Kiriakou highlights US President Harry Truman as a cautionary example. Truman signed the National Security Act of 1947, which created the CIA, but later complained publicly that the agency had escaped presidential control. Kiriakou recounts how Truman’s critical op-ed in <em>The Washington Post</em> shortly after the assassination of President John F Kennedy in 1963 disappeared from later editions under CIA pressure, reinforcing the perception of institutional autonomy.</p>
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<p>He also relays a story told to him by US Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in which his father, Attorney General Robert Kennedy Sr., confronted CIA Director John McCone after JFK’s assassination, asking whether his team had a hand in it. McCone responded with uncertainty, reinforcing long-standing suspicions about intelligence involvement at an individual level. While the assassination was likely not a formal CIA operation, the episode illustrates why the agency inspired fear among political leaders for decades.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The deep state and bureaucratic gravity</h2>
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<p>From presidential control, the conversation broadens to what Kiriakou calls the “deep state,” which he defines as the permanent national security bureaucracy. He argues that this apparatus limits any president’s ability to enact meaningful reform, regardless of intent. Reflecting on the appointment of veteran US diplomat Bill Burns as CIA director, Kiriakou admits he initially hoped Burns would restrain the agency’s excesses.</p>
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<p>Instead, Kiriakou states that Burns got absorbed into the CIA’s post-September 11 operational culture. Burns became the administration’s de facto crisis diplomat while simultaneously presiding over an agency engaged in drone warfare, renditions and domestic surveillance. “There really is such a thing as a deep state,” Kiriakou says, adding that labels matter less than institutional behavior.</p>
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<p>Kiriakou is especially critical of leadership choices under US President Donald Trump, pointing to former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former CIA Director Gina Haspel as evidence that structural continuity outweighs electoral disruption. In his view, reform requires both an activist president and a compliant Congress, a combination he sees as increasingly unlikely.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Assassination, secrecy and whistleblowers</h2>
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<p>Finally, Kiriakou and Isackson address how extraordinary practices have become normalized. Kiriakou explains that Executive Order 12333, signed by US President Ronald Reagan in 1981, once barred assassinations but was amended after September 11 to allow targeted killings of individuals deemed threats. He describes how these practices became routine under US President Barack Obama through weekly “kill list” meetings involving CIA and National Security Council lawyers.</p>
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<p>Kiriakou also discusses “Zero Units” in Afghanistan, joint CIA and special forces teams tasked with assassinations and kidnappings. These positions underscore how intelligence agencies have adopted paramilitary roles. Analytically, the CIA has repeatedly failed to anticipate major global events, even as its operational capacity for lethal action has expanded.</p>
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<p>The conversation closes with whistleblowing and information control. Kiriakou recounts his own prosecution under the Espionage Act of 1917 and notes that more people were charged for media contact under Obama than under all previous administrations combined. This shift reflects a deeper cultural change in which information itself is treated as a threat.</p>
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<p>Taken together, the discussion paints a sobering picture of intelligence agencies that operate with limited oversight, shape media narratives and exercise lethal authority in secret. Whether democracy can coexist with permanent secrecy remains an open and urgent question.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and former CIA analyst and whistleblower John Kiriakou discuss the relationship between intelligence services, the presidency and the media. The conversation revolves around a blunt question: Are intelligence agencies, as they function today,…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Peter Isackson and John Kiriakou examine whether modern intelligence agencies remain compatible with democratic governance. Drawing on media interference, presidential power struggles and post-September 11 covert practices, Kiriakou argues that secrecy and bureaucratic autonomy have eroded accountability. The discussion raises urgent questions about oversight, whistleblowing and permanent national security power.”
post-date=”Jan 05, 2026″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Does the CIA Control American Presidents and Media? John Kiriakou Explains” slug-data=”fo-talks-does-the-cia-control-american-presidents-and-media-john-kiriakou-explains”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-does-the-cia-control-american-presidents-and-media-john-kiriakou-explains/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Does-the-CIA-Control-American-Presidents-and-Media-John-Kiriakou-Explains-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/M0dum00g0fs?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Does the CIA Control American Presidents and Media? John Kiriakou Explains</h3>
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/John-Kiriakou-150×150.jpg.webp” />
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<span id=”date-auth-160037″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/john-kiriakou”>John Kiriakou</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/peter-isackson’>Peter Isackson</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>January 05, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/From-Shrimp-Among-Whales-to-Strategic-Power-How-South-Korea-Is-Shaping-Geopolitics-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/bW-ZMwC_jhw”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/brendan-howe’>Brendan Howe</a>”
post_date=”December 25, 2025 06:17″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/asia_pacific/fo-talks-from-shrimp-among-whales-to-strategic-power-how-south-korea-is-shaping-geopolitics/” pid=”159846″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Brendan Howe, Dean at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, about South Korea’s transformation from a vulnerable regional actor into a consequential “second-tier power.” They challenge the outdated label of South Korea as merely a middle power and instead situate it as a pragmatic state with significant military, economic and cultural influence — even as demographic decline casts a long shadow over its future.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Beyond the “middle power” label</h2>
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<p>Howe begins by rethinking how power is categorized in today’s international system. Traditional middle powers such as Canada or Australia historically pursued what he calls “niche diplomacy,” acting as normative brokers at the United Nations and advancing global humanitarian agendas. By contrast, Howe introduces the idea of “second-tier powers:” states with greater-than-middling resources that deploy them pragmatically in pursuit of national interest rather than moral leadership.</p>
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<p>South Korea, Howe argues, fits this category better than almost any other country. Long described as a “shrimp among whales,” the South Korean capital of Seoul has never aspired to great-power status. After all, it is surrounded by far larger neighbors such as China, Russia, Japan and the United States. Yet its economic growth, political consolidation and expanding global reach have pushed it well beyond the middle-power bracket. Rather than seeking global dominance, South Korea concentrates its influence where it can be most effective — economically, technologically and strategically.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Military strength without full autonomy</h2>
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<p>One of the clearest markers of South Korea’s rise is its military capability. Howe notes that, by most measurements, South Korea ranks between the sixth and eighth most powerful militaries in the world and is now the eighth-largest arms exporter globally. Its development of NATO-compliant systems, including the KF-21 stealth fighter jet, has made South Korean defense exports attractive to countries ranging from Poland to Australia.</p>
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<p>At the same time, Seoul’s alliance with Washington remains central. South Korea still relies on the US for key technologies such as aircraft engines and for extended nuclear deterrence. Howe questions, however, how decisive that nuclear umbrella really is. As he puts it, “the real threat to South Korea from North Korea does not come from the nuclear weapons,” but from conventional soviet-era artillery positioned near the demilitarized zone that could devastate Seoul in the opening moments of a conflict.</p>
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<p>This leads to one of Howe’s more provocative conclusions: South Korea’s reliance on the US is now “much more psychological than physical.” While US support remains important symbolically and politically, Howe suggests that South Korea has developed sufficient conventional strength and institutional resilience to survive even a dramatic reduction in American backing.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>North Korea and a “crisis democracy”</h2>
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<p>Turning to North Korea, Howe observes a striking gap between outside perceptions and domestic attitudes. International commentators often speculate about an imminent Korean War 2.0, but most South Koreans are far less alarmed. They are more concerned with cyberattacks, environmental risks and nuisance provocations such as waste-carrying balloons than with a full-scale invasion.</p>
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<p>Howe is sharply critical of former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s use of the North Korean threat for domestic political purposes, calling it scaremongering. He argues that exaggerated security claims contributed to Yoon’s downfall and reinforced public resistance to politicizing national defense.</p>
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<p>Domestically, South Korea’s frequent prosecutions of former leaders are often portrayed abroad as signs of instability. Howe rejects this framing, describing the country instead as a “crisis democracy” — a system that repeatedly confronts and resolves political turmoil. The willingness to hold presidents accountable signals democratic consolidation rather than decay, even if it complicates South Korea’s image as a model to emulate.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Economic, cultural and demographic futures</h2>
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<p>South Korea’s economic ascent rests on what Howe calls the “triple miracle on the Han River:” rapid industrialization, democratic consolidation and sustained development under conditions of unresolved conflict. Centralized planning, defiance of US advice to remain agrarian and relentless investment in education and research turned this war-ravaged country into a manufacturing and technological powerhouse.</p>
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<p>That same intensity, however, has produced social costs. Howe links South Korea’s high suicide rate to the extreme pressures of its education system, where competition begins early and never truly ends. Soft power, too, reflects this double edge. <em>Hallyu</em> — the global popularity surge of K-pop music, Korean films and television — emerged from deliberate government support and has generated enormous global influence. Yet Seoul often conflates public diplomacy with soft power, risking backlash by trying to manage cultural attraction too aggressively.</p>
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<p>Looking ahead, the gravest challenge is demographic. With one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, South Korea faces an aging population and a shrinking workforce. Howe suggests that automation, artificial intelligence and advanced military technology may offset some losses, but sustaining the welfare state will likely require a politically difficult shift toward greater immigration.</p>
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<p>In the broader global context, Howe predicts a move away from large-scale multilateralism toward smaller, issue-focused coalitions. He argues that initiatives led by second-tier powers may prove more inclusive and less polarizing than those dominated by great powers. That offers South Korea a path to influence without forcing others to choose between Washington and Beijing.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong><em>[Note: This FO Talks/FO Live is part of the Osaka School of International Public Policy’s <strong><em>“</em></strong>Peace and Human Security in Asia: Toward a Meaningful Japan-Korea Partnership” project supported by the Korea Foundation.]</em></strong></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Brendan Howe, Dean at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, about South Korea’s transformation from a vulnerable regional actor into a consequential “second-tier power.” They challenge the outdated label of South Korea as merely a…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Brendan Howe examine South Korea’s transformation from a vulnerable “shrimp among whales” into a pragmatic second-tier power. Seoul wields significant military and economic influence while remaining psychologically tethered to the United States for security. Demographic decline, more than North Korea, poses the greatest long-term threat to South Korea’s strategic future.”
post-date=”Dec 25, 2025″
post-title=”FO° Talks: From Shrimp Among Whales to Strategic Power: How South Korea Is Shaping Geopolitics” slug-data=”fo-talks-from-shrimp-among-whales-to-strategic-power-how-south-korea-is-shaping-geopolitics”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/asia_pacific/fo-talks-from-shrimp-among-whales-to-strategic-power-how-south-korea-is-shaping-geopolitics/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/From-Shrimp-Among-Whales-to-Strategic-Power-How-South-Korea-Is-Shaping-Geopolitics-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/From-Shrimp-Among-Whales-to-Strategic-Power-How-South-Korea-Is-Shaping-Geopolitics-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/From-Shrimp-Among-Whales-to-Strategic-Power-How-South-Korea-Is-Shaping-Geopolitics-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/bW-ZMwC_jhw?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: From Shrimp Among Whales to Strategic Power: How South Korea Is Shaping Geopolitics</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-159846″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Brendan-Howe-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-159846″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/brendan-howe”>Brendan Howe</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>December 25, 2025</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Is-Myanmars-Junta-Using-Elections-to-Consolidate-Power-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/rjlz4Ib8JWg”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/daniel-p-sullivan’>Daniel Sullivan</a>”
post_date=”December 23, 2025 06:42″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-is-myanmars-junta-using-elections-to-consolidate-power/” pid=”159809″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Daniel Sullivan, Director for Africa, Asia, and the Middle East at Refugees International, about Myanmar’s planned December 28 election and why only a handful of observers believe it represents a return to civilian rule. Since the 2021 military coup, the country has remained locked in conflict, repression and humanitarian collapse. Sullivan explains how the junta is using elections to manufacture legitimacy, why regional actors are misreading the moment and what the international community should do to avoid deepening instability.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A country at war with itself</h2>
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<p>Khattar Singh opens by situating the election in Myanmar’s post-coup existence. In February 2021, the military seized power after the National League for Democracy won a landslide victory, triggering nationwide resistance and armed conflict. Large parts of the country are no longer under central control. Airstrikes, arrests and censorship continue across junta-held areas.</p>
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<p>Sullivan finds it “very hard to imagine” these conditions producing anything resembling a free or fair vote. The military continues active combat against ethnic resistance groups, suppresses political organizing and controls information flows. The absence of accountability for past atrocities, especially the genocide against Myanmar’s Rohingya people, further undermines any claim to legitimacy. More than a million Rohingya remain stranded in refugee camps in Bangladesh, unable to return to homes that are still unsafe.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Elections as a tool of control</h2>
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<p>Khattar Singh presses on whether the vote is meant to restore legitimacy or simply consolidate power. Sullivan answers bluntly: “It’s absolutely [an] attempt to grab … legitimacy.” The process responds partly to external pressure, particularly from countries such as China that want a more predictable governing structure to protect their interests.</p>
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<p>The rules of the election, however, are designed to guarantee military dominance. The most popular parties from the pre-coup period are barred, the National League for Democracy party is dissolved and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains under detention. Protesters and potential opposition candidates face arrest. Even before ballots are cast, the constitution reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for the military, while most registered candidates are tied directly to the junta.</p>
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<p>This is a familiar playbook: Elections staged to project an image of civilian governance without surrendering real power. Even a single polling station — potentially on a military base — could be used to claim territorial legitimacy. Without independent observers or real competition, the vote becomes an administrative exercise rather than a democratic one.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A deepening humanitarian emergency</h2>
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<p>Beyond politics, Sullivan emphasizes the scale of human suffering. More than 3.5 million people are internally displaced, and roughly one-third of Myanmar’s population now requires humanitarian assistance. Aid delivery remains extremely difficult due to ongoing fighting and restrictions imposed by the military.</p>
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<p>Drawing on his fieldwork, Sullivan says communities most affected by violence see the election as a sham. For Rohingya refugees, the same military responsible for their expulsion is now asking for recognition as a legitimate government. In conflict-affected states such as Kachin and Rakhine, many ethnic groups believe continued resistance is the only way to protect their populations. Even in junta-controlled areas, political participation is constrained by fear and repression, leaving little public confidence in the process.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Regional miscalculations and global neglect</h2>
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<p>Khattar Singh turns to the regional picture, asking whether the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can use the election to stabilize the country. Sullivan is skeptical. ASEAN’s five-point consensus, announced soon after the coup, has gone unmet as fighting and airstrikes continue. He argues that granting legitimacy to the vote would only reward intransigence and encourage further abuses.</p>
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<p>China and India both have strong economic stakes in Myanmar, from infrastructure corridors to ports. Sullivan acknowledges their interest in stability but warns that Beijing’s belief that elections will calm the situation is misplaced. In his view, recognition would likely increase instability and fuel further refugee flows into neighboring states, including India and Bangladesh.</p>
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<p>Internationally, Myanmar has slipped from headlines as wars in Ukraine and Gaza dominate attention. Sullivan points to worrying signals in the United States, where South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem cited the election when announcing an end to Temporary Protected Status for people from Burma. He calls this a “false narrative” that misrepresents conditions on the ground. At the same time, he notes bipartisan condemnation in Congress, ongoing sanctions in Europe and continued documentation of abuses through a United Nations investigative mechanism.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>What should happen next</h2>
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<p>Sullivan closes by outlining what he believes the international response must be. Governments should refuse to recognize the election, maintain diplomatic pressure backed by sanctions and prioritize accountability through international legal mechanisms. He also notes that uncertainty extends even within the military itself, where questions remain about whether junta leader Min Aung Hlaing can consolidate power or whether internal fractures may emerge.</p>
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<p>The stakes are clear: treating this vote as legitimate would not move Myanmar toward peace. It would entrench military rule, prolong conflict and deepen one of the region’s worst humanitarian crises.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Daniel Sullivan, Director for Africa, Asia, and the Middle East at Refugees International, about Myanmar’s planned December 28 election and why only a handful of observers believe it represents a return to civilian rule. Since the…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Daniel Sullivan examine Myanmar’s December 28 election and why it cannot credibly mark a return to civilian rule after the 2021 military coup. The junta is using elections to manufacture legitimacy amid ongoing conflict, repression and mass displacement. Recognizing the vote would deepen instability and prolong Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis.”
post-date=”Dec 23, 2025″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Is Myanmar’s Junta Using Elections to Consolidate Power?” slug-data=”fo-talks-is-myanmars-junta-using-elections-to-consolidate-power”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-is-myanmars-junta-using-elections-to-consolidate-power/”
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FO° Talks: Is Myanmar’s Junta Using Elections to Consolidate Power?</h3>
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Daniel-Sullivan-150×150.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-159809″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/daniel-p-sullivan”>Daniel Sullivan</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>December 23, 2025</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Is-Chinas-Economy-Really-Collapsing-or-Is-the-West-Misreading-the-Numbers-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/0gQmqfC1T64″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/david-mahon’>David Mahon</a>”
post_date=”December 19, 2025 06:37″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/fo-talks-is-chinas-economy-really-collapsing-or-is-the-west-misreading-the-numbers/” pid=”159749″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and David Mahon, a Beijing-based investor and longtime China analyst who publishes <em>China Watch</em>, discuss whether China’s economy is a triumph in the making or a bubble about to burst. Mahon argues that Western debate often collapses a vast, uneven system into a single verdict — either inevitable dominance or certain collapse — when China’s reality is more regional, more adaptive and more politically constrained than either narrative captures.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Two stories of China’s economy</h2>
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<p>Singh opens by laying out the two competing narratives heard in Western capitals. One casts China as a rising “electrostate,” a manufacturing superpower, one of the two AI powerhouses, a state aggressively building clean tech capacity and securing commodities for its extraordinary industries. The other predicts a crash driven by a property bust, bad debts on the books of banks, weak consumption and high youth unemployment. Many frame these challenges as proof that China is a “paper tiger” — the nation looks ferocious, but this ferocity is illusory.</p>
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<p>Mahon says the polarization reflects how Western audiences, especially in the US, view China primarily as a strategic competitor. That framing rewards a focus on negatives and flaws. This framing also seeks emotional comfort, whether it is optimism about China’s ascent or reassurance that Western primacy will reassert itself. Mahon’s view is more grounded: At the grassroots level, the forces released by the great Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping through his 1978 reforms — mass internal migration, continued urbanization and a long transition from low-productivity rural life to higher-productivity urban work — still propel China.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>China’s decentralized economy</h2>
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<p>Singh is struck by Mahon’s insistence that China is politically centralized but economically highly decentralized. Mahon calls China “the most decentralized economy that matters in the world.” In fact, we should think of China as a patchwork or collection of interlocking regional economies. Mahon argues that local governments implement national policy through a patchwork of incentives, balance sheets and improvisation. That decentralized machinery helps explain why sweeping claims about employment, housing or industry often miss what is happening across provinces and tiers of cities.</p>
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<p>On debt, Mahon traces today’s local-government burdens to overlapping shocks. Some liabilities date back to the ¥4 trillion (roughly $568 billion) stimulus during the Global Financial Crisis, which encouraged overinvestment in local projects and state-linked industry. Then, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing ordered cities to fund strict quarantine enforcement and testing from their own coffers. The result is not simply waste in the abstract, but layered obligations imposed on local administrations that are struggling to bear the burden. Yet local officials are responsive to the local economy because they only move up in their careers if they deliver growth. So, they have a strong incentive to be responsive to the needs of the local economy.</p>
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<p>Mahon also reframes the property downturn. Credit tightening for major developers began years before the crisis peaked, but the denial of easy financing to firms such as Evergrande and Country Garden triggered a broader collapse of confidence, with acute stress in 2023–2024. Speculative second and third apartments absorbed the biggest household losses, while many primary family homes carried manageable mortgages or were already largely paid down. As Mahon puts it, “even collapse is the wrong term,” especially in top-tier cities where price declines were often closer to 20–25% than total wipeouts.</p>
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<p>The more serious damage sits in parts of central and western China where overbuilding was far more extreme — and where local governments had relied on land conversion from agricultural use to real estate as a primary way to finance development.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>China’s role in the New World, clean energy and policy responsiveness</h2>
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<p>Singh presses Mahon on whether China still runs on the old export-led playbook. Mahon states that well before the pandemic, exports contributed relatively little to incremental GDP growth compared with domestic consumption and domestic investment aimed at retooling the economy. Trade still matters, but China has diversified: Exports to the US are a smaller share than in earlier decades, while exports across Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia and Eastern Europe have grown.</p>
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<p>Mahon describes a country balancing two Chinas at once, an advanced coastal economy alongside vast regions that still resemble a developing economy. That duality lowers costs in some sectors, sustains labor supply in others and complicates macro management. The Chinese economy, Mahon argues, is now large and complex enough for the country’s leadership to accept slower growth — around 4–5% per annum — as the price of stability.</p>
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<p>The investor also flags a structural constraint: China’s financial system remains dominated by state-owned banks. Medium and large private firms can often access credit, but the country lacks the breadth of venture capital, angel investors and other nonstate funding mechanisms that help scale up innovation as in the US.</p>
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<p>Singh asks Mahon whether China is winning the “electrostate” race — renewables, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs) and industrial dominance. Mahon highlights the rapid expansion of renewable generation and argues that Beijing’s strategic policy, unconstrained by electoral cycles, has accelerated deployment of new technologies. However, China’s competition can be wasteful. “The competition’s too loose,” he says, and such a race among firms and local governments can generate duplication and excess capacity even as it produces a few global champions.</p>
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<p>Mahon sees a geopolitical logic in China’s clean-energy drive. Dependence on imported fossil fuels creates vulnerabilities, especially along maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca. Renewables are also a geopolitical derisking project for the country.</p>
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<p>Renewables can also help improve the lives of China’s citizens, and the country’s leadership is responsive to their needs. Mahon offers air quality as a case study in how social pressure can force the system to move quickly. He recalls Beijing’s “air apocalypse” period, when PM2.5 levels — levels of fine inhalable air pollutants up to 2.5 micrometers in size — spiked to extreme readings around 2014, triggering widespread anger and a policy pivot. Within less than a decade, targets, enforcement and switching energy sources helped transform the city’s air. </p>
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<p>The same pattern appeared during the 2022 protests against zero-COVID controls, when localized demonstrations preceded a rapid policy reversal. So far, China’s leadership is responsive to public opinion and has brought in policies to address citizen needs.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>China’s EV push and demographic decline</h2>
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<p>Singh raises the West’s fear that China will lock in dominance in EVs, batteries and related supply chains. Mahon rejects a simplistic, zero-sum “trap” narrative. He believes that the current wave, especially AI-enabled engineering, creates space for competition because it relies less on cheap labor and more on applied intelligence and system design. Regardless, he remains skeptical that Western governments can match China’s coordination quickly without more sustained industrial planning. So far, such planning has been missing in Western countries.</p>
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<p>Singh ends by asking whether China faces a Japan-style debt-demography trap. Mahon draws a sharp distinction between the two East Asian countries. Like Japan, China does not have a sovereign debt crisis. Like Japan, China has a domestic debt crisis. Since China’s liabilities are largely internal, the country can rely on a vast cohort — hundreds of millions — who remain relatively low-income but educated and ambitious. These millions are upwardly mobile and will sustain Chinese growth, mitigating the debt burden in the years ahead.</p>
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<p>High youth unemployment, according to Mahon, reflects a mismatch common to many economies. Too many graduates trained for yesterday’s economy, and too many desirable opportunities are concentrated in top-tier cities. Many young people have trained to be lawyers and accountants, expecting to live in big cities, while large numbers of manufacturing jobs are emerging elsewhere and are unfilled. Local competition — housing grants, residency benefits and incentives — is part of a broader push to attract those with skills into second- and third-tier cities. </p>
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<p>Finally, demography is a constraint that China is trying to manage early through automation. The country does not want to be deterministic about demography and allow it to trigger a collapse. In brief, the Chinese economy has many challenges, but it is complex, robust and dynamic. It is also highly decentralized, which makes lazy generalizations unwise and inaccurate.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and David Mahon, a Beijing-based investor and longtime China analyst who publishes China Watch, discuss whether China’s economy is a triumph in the making or a bubble about to burst. Mahon argues that Western debate often collapses a vast, uneven system into a single…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Atul Singh and David Mahon examine competing narratives about China’s economy. China neither teeters on the brink of collapse nor marches toward dominance, but operates as a highly decentralized system adapting unevenly to debt, demography and geopolitical pressure. Mahon insists on understanding China as it actually functions, which few Westerners do, and offers a nuanced analysis of the Chinese economy.”
post-date=”Dec 19, 2025″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Is China’s Economy Really Collapsing or Is the West Misreading the Numbers?” slug-data=”fo-talks-is-chinas-economy-really-collapsing-or-is-the-west-misreading-the-numbers”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/fo-talks-is-chinas-economy-really-collapsing-or-is-the-west-misreading-the-numbers/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Is-Chinas-Economy-Really-Collapsing-or-Is-the-West-Misreading-the-Numbers-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/0gQmqfC1T64?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Is China’s Economy Really Collapsing or Is the West Misreading the Numbers?</h3>
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<span id=”date-auth-159749″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/david-mahon”>David Mahon</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>December 19, 2025</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Why-Are-US-Companies-Leaving-China-and-Rushing-to-India-FO°-Talks.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/cTBtrn9jEck”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/russell-stamets’>Russell Stamets</a>”
post_date=”December 18, 2025 07:01″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/business/fo-talks-why-are-us-companies-leaving-china-and-rushing-to-india/” pid=”159682″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with <a href=”https://fointell.com/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>FOI</a> Partner Russell Stamets, a lawyer who has spent more than two decades advising American and multinational firms on doing business in India. Their conversation explores why American companies are now moving decisively away from China, how India’s internal federal competition has transformed investment decisions and why India’s southern state of Andhra Pradesh has emerged a standout destination for large American projects. At the center of the discussion is the leadership of Chief Minister Nara (N.) Chandrababu Naidu and a governing philosophy that prioritizes speed, credibility and execution over slogans.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Doing business in India</h2>
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<p>Stamets begins by describing what he sees as the central misconception American companies bring to India. American executives tend to think in binary extremes, swinging between despair and hype. As he puts it, American companies often believe either that India is “horrible and impossible and completely corrupt” or that “everything’s been fixed, everything’s fine,” and everyone must rush in immediately. In reality, India is both difficult and full of opportunity simultaneously.</p>
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<p>This binary thinking, Stamets argues, leads companies to wait for a mythical “right moment” to enter the market. That hesitation seems misguided. India’s complexity is not a temporary phase but a permanent condition, and firms that accept this and commit for the long term tend to do well. Those who wait for perfection usually miss the opportunity altogether.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Andhra Pradesh model</h2>
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<p>There is growing autonomy and competition among Indian states. Stamets calls this dynamic the most significant development in Indian democracy in decades. While foreign investors often focus on New Delhi, the Indian capital, real economic decision-making has increasingly shifted to the state level, where governments now compete directly for capital, projects and talent.</p>
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<p>Andhra Pradesh stands out in this environment. The state has claimed to have secured more than $120 billion in investment commitments in just over a year, including projects involving Google and Amazon. Stamets argues that these announcements reflect a deeper structural shift rather than short-term political theater. American companies are learning, sometimes slowly, that India is not a single market but a collection of competing jurisdictions with very different capacities and priorities.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Naidu’s business model</h2>
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<p>Stamets attributes Andhra Pradesh’s success largely to Naidu, whose earlier tenure put the undivided state on the global investment map. Naidu’s defining trait was his willingness to invest ahead of demand. While other states waited for companies to arrive before building infrastructure, Naidu focused on preparing first, ensuring that roads, power and administrative systems were already in place.</p>
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<p>Stamets recalls an early encounter in the northern city of Delhi, in which Naidu spoke unusually candidly about his own political background. He acknowledged that he had operated like a traditional politician in the past but emphasized that this approach no longer worked. What followed was a sustained effort to modernize governance through digital services, infrastructure investment and long-term urban planning.</p>
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<p>Stamets describes the transformation of Hyderabad as the most dramatic and intentional economic shift he has seen anywhere in India. He likens Naidu’s approach to a baseball player openly declaring his target before delivering results — not perfection, but real progress built over time.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Speed of doing business</h2>
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<p>Khattar Singh highlights a shift in how Andhra Pradesh now presents itself to investors. Rather than emphasizing the familiar “ease of doing business,” Naidu and his son, Minister of Human Resources Development Nara Lokesh, speak instead about the “speed of doing business.” Stamets sees this as more than a branding exercise. For global corporations managing complex supply chains and political risk, time matters as much as formal rules.</p>
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<p>Stamets expresses confidence that the gap between this rhetoric and reality in Andhra Pradesh is smaller than in most jurisdictions. He argues that companies respond positively to governments that acknowledge problems openly and work alongside investors to resolve them, rather than taking offense when obstacles are raised. What matters is not pretending to be flawless, but demonstrating responsiveness and momentum.</p>
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<p>Stamets dislikes grand narratives about “growth stories.” Business leaders, he says, are not looking for fairy tales. They want evidence, consistency and a track record of delivery — qualities he increasingly associates with Andhra Pradesh’s current leadership.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Large projects in India</h2>
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<p>The discussion turns to large-scale investments, including Google’s proposed data center and steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal’s metalwork projects. Stamets dismisses the idea that these are merely symbolic announcements. He describes them as hard business decisions rooted in geography, logistics and long-term strategy. The city of Visakhapatnam’s status as a major port, for example, makes it a logical location for heavy industry and data infrastructure.</p>
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<p>While acknowledging that timelines can shift, Stamets says he does not expect these projects to evaporate. In his view, they reflect the same logic that once drew American companies to China: scale, necessity and the absence of viable alternatives.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Window of opportunity</h2>
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<p>Stamets closes on an optimistic note, describing the current moment as the most promising phase in the US–India economic relationship precisely because of global uncertainty. With China no longer a reliable option, American companies are reassessing India with renewed seriousness. If Indian bureaucracy continues to enable rather than obstruct and American firms approach India with patience and commitment, the next two decades of economic engagement could be transformative for both sides.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with FOI Partner Russell Stamets, a lawyer who has spent more than two decades advising American and multinational firms on doing business in India. Their conversation explores why American companies are now moving decisively away from…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Russell Stamets examine why American companies are leaving China and reassessing India as a long-term partner. Competition among Indian states has reshaped investment decisions, with Andhra Pradesh standing out under Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s execution-focused leadership. Speed, credibility and sustained commitment make the difference in US–India business.”
post-date=”Dec 18, 2025″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Why Are US Companies Leaving China and Rushing to India?” slug-data=”fo-talks-why-are-us-companies-leaving-china-and-rushing-to-india”>
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Why-Are-US-Companies-Leaving-China-and-Rushing-to-India-FO°-Talks.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/cTBtrn9jEck?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Why Are US Companies Leaving China and Rushing to India?</h3>
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<span id=”date-auth-159682″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/russell-stamets”>Russell Stamets</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>December 18, 2025</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nigeria-Mass-Kidnappings-Surge-as-Poverty-Terror-and-Corruption-Fuel-Crisis-FO°-Talks.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/twUI6cVgkfY”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/olawole-fajusigbe’>Olawole Fajusigbe</a>”
post_date=”December 17, 2025 07:30″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/africa/fo-talks-nigeria-mass-kidnappings-surge-as-poverty-terror-and-corruption-fuel-crisis/” pid=”159670″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh and Nigerian legal practitioner Olawole Fajusigbe discuss a sharp escalation in mass kidnappings across Nigeria. Their conversation examines why abductions have become routine and how poverty, porous borders and weak governance intersect. Is the crisis a genocide against Christians, or does it represent a broader collapse of state protection?</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Mass kidnappings in Nigeria</h2>
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<p>Khattar Singh opens by situating Nigeria’s kidnapping crisis within a wider landscape of insecurity. The country is confronting insurgents, militant groups and criminal networks simultaneously, particularly in the northwest and north-central regions. In November, insurgents abducted over 400 children, including the mass kidnapping of over 300 students and 12 teachers from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Niger State.</p>
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<p>Fajusigbe explains that kidnappings have persisted for years with little deterrence. As a result, abduction has evolved into a low-risk, high-profit enterprise. Because ransoms are frequently paid and prosecutions remain rare, criminal groups see little reason to stop. As he puts it, kidnapping has become “a normal thing.”</p>
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<p>While over 100 abducted students have escaped and others have been released, authorities have offered few details about how negotiations unfolded or whether perpetrators were apprehended. The lack of transparency fuels fear, especially when officials make public assurances without explaining how they intend to deliver results.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why kidnappings happen</h2>
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<p>When asked whether ideology, poverty or governance failure is the primary driver, Fajusigbe argues that all three factors reinforce one another. Islamist groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province remain active, but many kidnappings are now carried out by loosely organized criminal gangs motivated primarily by profit.</p>
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<p>Geography plays a critical role. Kidnappings are concentrated in border regions adjacent to Chad and other neighboring states, where porous frontiers allow fighters and weapons to move freely. Illegal arms trafficking and weak law enforcement presence make it easier for criminal groups to operate with impunity.</p>
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<p>Poverty accelerates the situation as well. Fajusigbe describes how unemployment and lack of opportunity create a pool of recruits willing to take risks. Young men with little hope for the future may see kidnapping as a rational economic choice. Ideology, he argues, often dissolves under scrutiny. Greed is often the real motivation.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Are Nigerians unhappy?</h2>
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<p>The Nigerian public is extremely frustrated. Parents of kidnapped children say they receive little information from authorities. Communities feel abandoned by leaders who appear unable or unwilling to restore security. Fajusigbe speaks personally about the emotional toll, noting reports of parents dying from shock or medical complications after learning their children had been abducted.</p>
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<p>Suspicion has deepened following reports that security personnel were withdrawn shortly before some kidnappings occurred, with no subsequent accountability for commanders involved. Nigerians increasingly question whether corruption or collusion is undermining security efforts.</p>
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<p>The government has pointed to partial successes — hostages released, schools evacuated — but these measures feel inadequate. The decision to close dozens of schools indefinitely in affected regions struck many as an admission of defeat rather than a solution.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Options for Nigerians</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>As violence persists, Nigerians are exploring alternatives beyond federal responses. Southern governors are coordinating to prevent the spread of instability, while public debate over creating state-level police forces intensifies. Fajusigbe warns that talk alone is not enough, stressing that “the rhetoric is becoming too much” without concrete action.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Drawing on his experience in conflict resolution, he emphasizes dialogue as a tool for resolving communal disputes, particularly those rooted in land and resource conflicts. Traditional and religious leaders, he argues, are often better positioned than distant officials to mediate locally grounded tensions.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Yet dialogue has limits. Criminal kidnappers are unlikely to negotiate in good faith. In such cases, long-term solutions depend on strategic development to reduce unemployment and a restructured security architecture capable of disrupting criminal operations.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Genocide against Christians?</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Khattar Singh raises US President Donald Trump’s claim that Nigeria faces a genocide against Christians. Fajusigbe urges caution with the terminology. Christians and other civilians are unquestionably being targeted, but he argues that debates over definitions distract from urgent realities.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Rather than focusing on labels, we should look at the underlying truth: People are being killed, communities terrorized and basic rights violated. Whether described as genocide or not, the failure of the state to protect its citizens demands immediate action.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>For Fajusigbe, the priority is clear. Authorities must close border gaps, dismantle kidnapping networks, cut off funding streams and restore trust through visible accountability. Without those steps, Nigerians will continue to live in fear of abandonment.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh and Nigerian legal practitioner Olawole Fajusigbe discuss a sharp escalation in mass kidnappings across Nigeria. Their conversation examines why abductions have become routine and how poverty, porous borders and weak governance intersect. Is the…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Olawole Fajusigbe examine Nigeria’s surge in mass kidnappings and the forces behind them. Poverty, porous borders and weak governance have turned abduction into a low-risk, high-profit enterprise. Without accountability, development and security reform, public fear and mistrust will deepen.”
post-date=”Dec 17, 2025″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Nigeria — Mass Kidnappings Surge as Poverty, Terror and Corruption Fuel Crisis” slug-data=”fo-talks-nigeria-mass-kidnappings-surge-as-poverty-terror-and-corruption-fuel-crisis”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/africa/fo-talks-nigeria-mass-kidnappings-surge-as-poverty-terror-and-corruption-fuel-crisis/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nigeria-Mass-Kidnappings-Surge-as-Poverty-Terror-and-Corruption-Fuel-Crisis-FO°-Talks.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nigeria-Mass-Kidnappings-Surge-as-Poverty-Terror-and-Corruption-Fuel-Crisis-FO°-Talks.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nigeria-Mass-Kidnappings-Surge-as-Poverty-Terror-and-Corruption-Fuel-Crisis-FO°-Talks.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/twUI6cVgkfY?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Nigeria — Mass Kidnappings Surge as Poverty, Terror and Corruption Fuel Crisis</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-159670″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Olawole-Fajusigbe-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-159670″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/olawole-fajusigbe”>Olawole Fajusigbe</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>December 17, 2025</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Kazakhstans-Abraham-Accords-Move-Critical-Minerals-Trump-Diplomacy-and-Geopolitics-FO°-Talks.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/iJeMFkROiZE”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joanna-lillis’>Joanna Lillis</a>”
post_date=”December 15, 2025 07:39″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/fo-talks-kazakhstans-abraham-accords-move-critical-minerals-trump-diplomacy-and-geopolitics/” pid=”159642″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh and Joanna Lillis, a leading journalist who has covered Central Asia since 2001, discuss why Kazakhstan, the region’s largest Muslim-majority country, has decided to join the Abraham Accords — diplomatic agreements designed to build partnerships between Israel and several Arab nations. Lillis explains the strategic logic behind the move, how Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy adapts to shifting geopolitical currents and why domestic reaction remains muted despite strong emotions over the war in Gaza.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Kazakhstan joins the Abraham Accords</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Khattar Singh questions why Kazakhstan has taken this surprising diplomatic leap. Lillis emphasizes that the decision is driven primarily by Kazakhstan’s desire to strengthen its relationship with Washington at a moment when Trump is actively expanding the Accords. As she puts it, “Kazakhstan’s joined the Abraham Accords as part of its efforts to … forge good relations with the United States under Donald Trump.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Kazakhstan carries significant weight in Central Asia. The country is geographically vast, resource-rich and historically viewed as a stable regional actor. Lillis notes that Washington has long encouraged Muslim-majority nations to join the Accords, and Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana is well aware that doing so aligns with American strategic preferences. More importantly, the political cost for Kazakhstan is low. The move secures goodwill in Washington without creating serious consequences at home or jeopardizing key relationships abroad.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Does Kazakhstan receive something tangible in return? Lillis explains that the relationship with the US has indeed become more transactional. Deals in technology, security, defense cooperation and especially critical minerals are increasingly part of the conversation. Kazakhstan is not simply a passive recipient of US investment; it is also channeling money into the American economy. Just before a recent summit between Trump and Central Asian leaders in Washington, Kazakhstan announced a major purchase of US-made locomotives — a signal that Astana wants the relationship to deepen on both sides.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The US and its allies are seeking reliable suppliers for tungsten and other critical minerals, and Kazakhstan’s deposits make it a desirable partner. Lillis notes that this agenda now sits near the top of US–Central Asia discussions. By joining the Abraham Accords, Kazakhstan positions itself as a stable, Western-friendly source of resources at a time when governments are rethinking supply chains disrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, sanctions and global competition.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Kazakhstan’s foreign policy</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Khattar Singh then turns to a larger question: How does joining the Abraham Accords fit within Kazakhstan’s long-standing approach to diplomacy, especially given its enormous borders with Russia and China? Lillis stresses that Astana has always balanced between these two powers and the West. For decades, Kazakhstan has managed what it proudly calls a multi-vector foreign policy. This “basically means being friends with everyone, not necessarily allies.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The doctrine allows Kazakhstan to navigate regional tensions without provoking its more powerful neighbors. Geography alone forces a careful approach: a 7,000-kilometer border with Russia, a long frontier with China and enduring economic interdependence with both.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Kazakhstan sees this balancing act as essential to its national security. The country does not possess overwhelming military power, so avoiding unnecessary enemies becomes a strategic imperative. She also notes that while Astana appears to be moving closer to the West, officials would likely insist that the shift is driven by Western outreach rather than Kazakh initiative. In their view, the US and Europe have turned to Central Asia because they need new trade routes, seek to bypass Russia and want secure access to critical minerals. Kazakhstan is responding to opportunity, not seeking confrontation.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Are Kazaks celebrating?</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Khattar Singh asks how ordinary Kazakhs feel about joining the Abraham Accords. Lillis replies that the issue barely registers for most citizens. “I don’t think it’s something anybody’s particularly celebrating,” she answers. The government itself has kept the announcement low-key. In fact, Washington publicizes Kazakhstan’s decision before Astana makes its own statement. This is an indicator that the leadership prefers not to draw too much attention.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The muted tone reflects political sensitivity. Segments of the population hold strong views about Israel’s conduct in Gaza, and they may be uncomfortable with the decision. Yet Kazakhstan has maintained diplomatic relations with Israel for decades, making this move more evolutionary than revolutionary. Ultimately, domestic reaction remains limited because the state manages public discourse tightly. Kazakhstan’s political system tolerates little open dissent, and foreign policy rarely becomes a mass-mobilizing issue.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Khattar Singh comments that Kazakhstan’s decision unfolds against a backdrop of quiet competition between the West, Russia and China. Lillis agrees, suggesting that the Abraham Accords highlight a subtle but intensifying struggle for influence across Central Asia.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh and Joanna Lillis, a leading journalist who has covered Central Asia since 2001, discuss why Kazakhstan, the region’s largest Muslim-majority country, has decided to join the Abraham Accords — diplomatic agreements designed to build…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO° Talks, Rohan Khattar Singh and Joanna Lillis discuss why Kazakhstan is joining the Abraham Accords and how the move strengthens its relationship with the United States. Critical minerals, investment deals and shifting trade routes elevate Kazakhstan’s strategic value. They also examine Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy and the muted public response.”
post-date=”Dec 15, 2025″
post-title=”FO° Talks: Kazakhstan’s Abraham Accords Move — Critical Minerals, Trump Diplomacy and Geopolitics” slug-data=”fo-talks-kazakhstans-abraham-accords-move-critical-minerals-trump-diplomacy-and-geopolitics”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/fo-talks-kazakhstans-abraham-accords-move-critical-minerals-trump-diplomacy-and-geopolitics/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Kazakhstans-Abraham-Accords-Move-Critical-Minerals-Trump-Diplomacy-and-Geopolitics-FO°-Talks.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Kazakhstans-Abraham-Accords-Move-Critical-Minerals-Trump-Diplomacy-and-Geopolitics-FO°-Talks.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Kazakhstans-Abraham-Accords-Move-Critical-Minerals-Trump-Diplomacy-and-Geopolitics-FO°-Talks.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/iJeMFkROiZE?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO° Talks: Kazakhstan’s Abraham Accords Move — Critical Minerals, Trump Diplomacy and Geopolitics</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-159642″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Joanna-Lillis-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-159642″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joanna-lillis”>Joanna Lillis</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rohan-khattar-singh’>Rohan Khattar Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>December 15, 2025</span></div>
</span></div></div>
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Source: World Politics - fairobserver.com
