It was a rainy Tuesday morning in South Florida, and two men in their 80s were deep into conversation and cafecito at the iconic Versailles Cuban Bakery in Miami.

Born in Cuba and now retired, the pair – who would only give their first names Manuel and Juan – have lived in the area for more than 60 and 20 years, respectively. And when asked about their political stance, they shy away from the Republican label many of their neighbors proudly embrace and instead simply describe themselves as deeply anti-communist.

“We believe the government should be small, everyone should have the right to work, and private companies are what make a country grow,” the more outspoken of the two, Manuel, said.

He and Juan prefer to call themselves conservatives and haven’t considered backing a Democrat since the 70s, saying – without much evidence – that the party is full of the Marxist ideas embraced by the Cuban regime which they fled from and which took the belongings of many refugees’ families.

Manuel said he and Juan supported the Donald Trump White House because he opposed communism, and his talk on the economy attracted them. “If we had the chance,” said Juan, who spent 10 years as a political prisoner in Cuba, they would send Ronald Reagan back to the Oval Office.

For what seems to be countless election cycles now, Democrats and other Republican opponents have hoped that such staunch rightwing postures among south Florida’s key Cuban American electorate would die out – if not fade away – as younger generations from that community came of age, giving progressives an opening to more consistently win a perennial battleground state.

But that hasn’t happened, and it doesn’t look like the stronghold and advantage that the Republican party enjoys in such a consequential part of Florida is weakening any time soon.

A number of Cuban American Republican congressional candidates are up for re-election come November and the support of the Cuban American community will prove to be essential to secure positive outcomes. In the case of stalwart Republican senator Marco Rubio, who is up against Democratic challenger Val Demmings, some analysts predict “this could be the closest race of Rubio’s career”.

Similarly, incumbent Republican House representative María Elvira Salazar could face a tight race in a district that is known for swinging in the past.

Meanwhile, Republican House members Mario Diaz Balart and Carlos Gimenez, the former Miami-Dade mayor, are both expected to have favorable re-election results for the midterms.

Still, with the Democratic party trying to cling on to razor-thin advantages in both congressional chambers in the looming 2022 midterms, conservative Cuban Americans remain the most influential bloc embedded within the 2.5 million Latinos that account for 17% of Florida’s registered voters.

A Pew Research Center report from 2018, stated Cuban Americans make up 29% of registered Latino voters in the state of Florida, followed only by Puerto Ricans, who make up 27% of this demographic. The remaining 44% is composed of numerous origin nationalities, such as Mexicans, who account for 10% of this electorate, and Colombians, who account for 8%. NBC News exit polls for the 2020 election found that while 55% of Cuban American voters in Florida cast their ballot in favor of Trump, this was also the case for 30% of Puerto Rican voters and 48% of the remaining Latino electorate in the south-eastern state.

In any case, Hispanics across the rest of the state preferred Joe Biden over Trump by a 2-to-1 margin during Biden’s successful run to the White House in 2020, according to a 2021 report by the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Yet Latinos in and around Miami supported Trump over the race’s Democratic victor 2-to-1, that same report showed. And the Democratic polling firm Catalist, which looked back at the 2020 election and estimated dips in leftwing support across presidential battleground states, found “the biggest drop by far was in Florida” despite Biden’s relative popularity.

Both sets of data show that Reagan’s decision to align his Republican party with that populous region’s Cuban American majority is still paying dividends, said Northwestern University professor Geraldo Cadava, who teaches history as well as Latina and Latino studies.

“Since the 1980s, Republicans have put boots on the ground [in Florida], they have organized Cuban Americans, they have supported Cuban American candidates, they have invested them, [and often] left the Democratic Party in the dust,” said Florida International University’s Guillermo Grenier, a professor of the college’s department of global and sociocultural studies.

As Cadava sees it, Florida’s Cuban Americans remain loyal to Republican politics because of cold war-era narratives centering on opposition to Cuba’s late dictator Fidel Castro that continue to resonate here, even as they have faded in the rest of America. It’s why presidential candidates’ campaign stops in Florida have historically involved speeches on foreign policy, which is important to the many who either fled Castro’s regime themselves or have relatives who did.

To this day, Cadava thinks many Cuban Americans in Florida are drawn to Republicans because this continues to be a group “driven by cold war narratives of opposition to Castro”. Similarly, Grenier points out, “when presidential candidates come to Florida, they give foreign policy speeches because they know there is a population that will respond to that”.

A Cuban-born retiree who would only identify himself as Pablo said he gave up on even considering support for the Democratic party when the Barack Obama White House sought to thaw the US’s long hostile relationship with Cuba, including by easing restrictions on travel to the island of 11 million people for pursuits such as academics.

Obama’s stance set the stage in 2016 for him to become the first US president to visit Cuba in nearly 90 years despite the regime there being repeatedly cited for human rights violations. And Pablo, along with many of his neighbors, preferred it when Trump reimposed some of the sanctions that Obama spurned but which predecessors had left in place in hopes of pressuring the communist Caribbean island toward capitalism and democracy.

“I vote with Cuba’s freedom in mind,” Pablo said during one of his frequent visits to the renowned Calle Ocho in Miami-Dade county. “Republicans are better at putting more pressure on Cuba, and that’s why I align with the party.”

A poll on Cuba that Grenier helps helm for FIU found in 2020 that 60% of Cuban Americans in south Florida were like Pablo, favoring the embargo of trade against the island, which is a stance that is tough to adopt for any candidates seeking progressive support.

Meanwhile, 79-year-old Cuban retiree Thelma Dominguez said: “I’ve been a Republican since I came to this country.” One of her first acts as a citizen was to vote for Richard Nixon before the Watergate scandal forced him to become the only president to resign from the Oval Office.

Dominguez now says she is a fierce supporter of Trump and is quick to call him a patriot. She did not seem all that worried that his supporters staged the January 6 2021 US Capitol attack in a desperate, undemocratic attempt to prevent the congressional certification of his loss to Biden.

She’s more concerned about keeping guns accessible to the public through the US constitution’s second amendment, and she likes that Republicans are devoted to that, saying Cubans lost the right to bear arms after Castro’s ascent.

When at the polls, she said the economy is at her mind’s forefront. And she counts herself among the 80% of Cuban Americans in south Florida who, according to the FIU Cuba poll, support the economic agendas of Trump, Florida’s extreme rightwing governor Ron DeSantis, and their Republican allies.

“I deeply hate communism, and Democrats today are complete communists,” Dominguez said. “They’re against rich people and millionaires who have companies. If a country goes against big companies – the ones who employ people – the country goes south like it happened in Cuba.”

Dominguez is far from alone in her thoughts. Many of the Latinos in and around Miami, as well as throughout Florida, see the Republicans as the party of “prosperity”, Cadava said.

“[The Republican party is seen as] the party that helps you get a good paying job, pay lower taxes and own a home,” Cadava added.

Latino Republican loyalists in south Florida don’t necessarily feel a kinship with other immigrants who flee violent, impoverished and corrupt countries – but who then aren’t granted asylum automatically because their native nations aren’t run by dictatorial communist governments.

That could explain why they aren’t put off when DeSantis does something like arrange to fly 50 Venezuelan migrants to the wealthy liberal island of Martha’s Vineyard, a move he carried out recently whose legality is in question amid allegations that the migrants were deceived about where they were going.

Arisleidy Rodriguez, a 39-year-old mother of two who makes a living selling her husband’s art after coming to the US more than two decades ago, said ensuring that close loved ones prosper will always be more important to her and many of her neighbors than some of the social justice and equality issues which the Democratic party has built itself around.

“When I vote, I think about my children’s wellbeing,” said Rodriguez, who noted that the news sources she trusts the most come from Facebook and the Cuban news site Cubanos por el Mundo.

All of which leads Grenier to conclude that the Democrats have not implemented the organization necessary to overcome the anti-leftist narrative that Reagan began deeply ingraining in voters like Rodriguez as control of Washington DC’s levers of power hangs in the balance in November.

“In Florida, you can’t just believe that your ideas are right,” Grenier said. “You have to actually get on the ground and organize. Otherwise, people will either not vote or vote Republican.”