Evelyn Reynolds

Joe Biden, facing a backlash from young voters over the war in Gaza, has sought to rally support around the issue of gun safety just hours after his son Hunter was convicted of lying about his drug use to illegally buy a firearm.Contrasted his record with election rival Donald Trump, the US president brought an audience that included many students to its feet at the Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund’s annual Gun Sense University conference in Washington on Tuesday.But in a reminder of the issues jostling for priority in voters’ minds, Biden’s remarks were briefly interrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters. One shouted: “You’re complicit in genocide!” As the crowd booed, Biden said: “No, no, no, no … It’s OK. Look, they care. Innocent children have been lost. They make a point.”He went on to give an otherwise uneventful speech that made no mention of Hunter Biden’s conviction in Delaware earlier in the day on three felony counts relating to buying a handgun while being a user of crack cocaine.The conference, which brings together Moms Demand Action and Students Demand Action volunteers and survivors of gun violence from all 50 states, served as a show of strength for Biden at a time when his position looks fragile in opinion polls.Speakers praised his commitment, compassion and willingness to listen. Julvonnia McDowell, whose 14-year-old son JaJuan was shot and killed by another teenager playing with an unsecured firearm in Savannah, Georgia, told the gathering: “I can say today, standing here right now, he’s been true to his word on the urgency of creating a safer future for families like mine and yours.”She added: “I am proud to stand with him.”Biden was greeted by chants of “Four more years” and “Let’s go, Joe!” He received loud acclaim when he reminded the audience that in June 2022 he signed the most significant federal bipartisan gun safety legislation in nearly 30 years. On Wednesday the justice department announced it has charged more than 500 defendants under the new law.There was another big cheer when Biden noted his creation last September of the first White House office of gun violence to coordinate a nationwide effort to reduce gun violence, “overseen by my incredible vice-president”.But perhaps the most enthusiastic response came to the president’s renewed call for a ban on assault weapons, sparking prolonged cheering, whooping and chants of “Four more years!” Biden asked: “Who in God’s name needs a magazine which can hold 200 children?” Someone shouted: “Nobody!” Biden replied: “Nobody. That’s right.”He added: “They’re weapons of war and, by the way, it’s time we establish universal background checks.”Biden asserted that the country’s murder rate saw the highest increase on record in the year before he came to the presidency. But last year saw the largest drop in murder rates in history, he added.He condemned congressional Republicans for seeking to abolish the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), a law enforcement agency responsible for fighting gun crime. “You can’t be pro-law enforcement and say you are pro-law enforcement and be pro-abolishing the ATF. It’s outrageous.”He went on to take a swipe at Trump, reminding voters of the stakes in November. “After a school shooting in Iowa killed a student and a teacher, my predecessor was asked about it. You remember what he said. He said, have to get over it. Hell no, know enough to get over it!“More children are killed in America by guns and cancer and car accidents combined. My predecessor told the NRA [National Rifle Association] convention recently he’s proud that ‘I did nothing on guns when I was president’ and by doing nothing, he made the situation considerably worse.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“That’s why Everytown, why all of you here today are so damned important. We need you. We need you to overcome the unrelenting opposition of the gun lobby, gun manufacturers, so many politicians when they oppose commonsense gun legislation.”In the 2024 election cycle the NRA has contributed a total of $191,900 to 166 House Republicans, according to the non-profit group OpenSecrets. It gave nearly $75,000 to Senate Republican candidates and the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. The NRA has spent more than $100m to help elect Republicans over the past decade.Trump has said there is “no bigger fan” of the NRA and is vowing to roll back the measures and implement national concealed carry reciprocity legislation which, critics say, will weaken states’ gun safety laws and harm law enforcement.A 2022 poll by the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 71% of Americans say gun laws should be stricter, including about half of Republicans, the vast majority of Democrats and a majority of those in gun-owning households.Believing this to be an arena where the electoral choice is clear cut, the Biden campaign is seeking to make a major push on gun safety. Last week the vice-president Kamala Harris held a gun violence prevention campaign event in Maryland with Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks and hosted a Students for Biden-Harris organising call.Voters cited addressing gun violence as their third most important issue during the 2022 midterm elections, according to a Politico-Harvard survey. But in this cycle it is competing with the cost of living, immigration, abortion rights, the defence of democracy and the war in Gaza.Drew Spiegel, 19, a gun violence survivor and student from Deerfield, Illinois, said: “Joe Biden has done the most any administration in my life has done for gun violence prevention. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act was the first comprehensive gun reform we got in 30 years, which is remarkable and I am super proud of his administration for that.“I believe that Biden is certainly on the right track, which is why it’s critical to keep him in office. We saw what Donald Trump has in store and he has no intentions of making our communities safer, of keeping guns off the hands of dangerous people. He will cosy up to the NRA, as he has already done, and not only will they stop reform from happening but they will actively take us in the opposite direction.” More

The Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, has launched a political action committee that is targeting popular ballot amendments on abortion access and marijuana legalization that will be voted on in November.The group, known as the Florida Freedom Fund, launched in May, Politico first reported. The committee is chaired by James Uthmeier, DeSantis’s chief of staff who was previously the Republican’s campaign manager during his unsuccessful presidential primary run.In addition to targeting ballot initiatives, the committee will get involved in school board races, Politico reported, citing an individual who is familiar with the group’s plans.Florida Republicans have attempted to maximize their political control of local school boards, especially amid book bans and far-right education laws banning discussions of race and sexual identity being passed in the state, WUFT reported.A spokesperson for the governor told Politico that the goal of the political action committee is to support issues and candidates that are “committed to preserving Floridians’ freedom”.“From up and down ballot races to critical amendments, we’re steadfast in our mission to keep Florida free,” a DeSantis spokesperson, Taryn Fenske, said.Reproductive-rights activists have been pushing for voters to support an upcoming ballot initiative that would enshrine broader abortion access in Florida’s constitution, Axios reported.Since Florida’s six-week abortion ban went into effect in June, fewer abortions have been performed in the state. Activists have also seen more people seeking care in states on the east coast with broader abortion access.Amending Florida’s constitution is a difficult task – 60% of voters will have to approve the ballot initiative.But support for the abortion access measure, known as Amendment 4, has been picking up steam before the November vote.Supporters of the constitutional amendment have raised more than $12m in two months since the state’s supreme court approved the measure in April, the Tampa Bay Times reported.“Seeing increased financial support for the Yes on 4 effort provides us a glimmer of hope. Regardless of income or background, every Floridian deserves the freedom to make their own healthcare decisions without government interference, including abortion, and we’ll keep up the fight to make that a reality,” the campaign director for Yes on 4 Florida, Lauren Brenzel, said to the Times.Both amendments appear to be garnering widespread support. Recent polling by Fox News predicted that both amendments would overwhelmingly pass, with 69% of voters supporting the abortion-access initiative and 66% favoring the marijuana-legalization amendment. More

A new Pew Research survey has found that Joe Biden’s global perception is generally favorable – but most abroad disapprove of how the US president has handled Israel’s war in Gaza.According to survey results released on Tuesday, a median of 43% across 34 countries have confidence in Biden to “do the right thing” regarding world affairs. However, a median of 57% across 34 countries disapprove of Biden’s approach to the war in the Middle East, where, according to estimates, Israeli forces have killed more than 37,000 Palestinians in Gaza in response to the 7 October attack by Hamas that killed 1,200 Israelis and took hostages.Majorities in 10 countries have confidence in Biden. The countries with his largest shares of popularity are in the Philippines, where 77% of the population has indicated confidence towards him; Kenya, at 75%; and Poland, at 70%.Biden is least favorable in Tunisia, where 89% have indicated zero confidence towards him, as well as in Turkey – where that figure is 87%.Across 10 European countries surveyed, the majorities in six of those nations do not have confidence in Biden, including 56% in France and 72% in Hungary.By contrast, most in Canada and across Europe do not have confidence in Donald Trump, Biden’s presidential predecessor and the presumptive nominee to challenge him in November’s election.According to the survey, more than eight in 10 hold this view in France, Germany and Sweden. Trump – who was convicted of 34 felonies in late May in connection with a plot to cover up hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels – also scored poorly in Latin America, where at least six in 10 in every country surveyed have no confidence in him to do the right thing in global affairs, including 86% in Mexico.Speaking about the findings on Tuesday, Pew’s director of global attitudes research, Richard Wike, said: “As the US presidential election approaches, what we see in our international surveys is that there is significantly more confidence in president Biden than in former president Trump … In part, it’s due to personal characteristics – for example, in our polls, people have been much more likely to say Biden is well-qualified to be president than to say this about Trump. In contrast, they have been more likely to describe Trump as dangerous.”Wike added: “Biden also gets higher ratings than Trump because people tend to like his policies better. In particular, they have generally seen him as being more of a multilateralist and as working more closely with other countries to solve international challenges.”Despite Biden’s higher popularity compared with Trump, the president’s global ratings have declined since last year in 14 of 21 countries where trends are available, the survey revealed.Those countries include Australia, Israel, Japan, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the UK.Opinions in 34 countries polled surrounding Biden’s handling of major international issues are divided, with the exception of the Israel-Gaza war. Climate change and global economic problems are two areas of Biden’s international policies in which his approval and disapproval ratings are nearly evenly divided. For each area, 44% indicated their disapproval while 43% indicated their approval.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Israel-Gaza war is where those surveyed were most divided with respect to Biden. In addition to a median of 57% indicating their disapproval of the Gaza war, six in 10 Israelis disapproved of how Biden had handled the conflict, including 54% of Jewish Israelis and 86% of Arab Israelis.Among the Muslim countries surveyed, large majorities in Tunisia, Turkey and Malaysia have significant disapproval towards Biden’s handling of the war. In Tunisia, 93% indicated disapproval. Meanwhile, in Turkey and Malaysia, 85% and 84% indicated disapproval, respectively.The survey also found that adults under 35 years old in Australia, Canada and some European countries are less likely than those ages 50 and older to approve of Biden’s handling of the war.In France and the UK, 18% and 19% of younger adults, respectively, are roughly half as likely as older adults – at 40% and 41%, respectively – to rate Biden positively on his response to the Gaza war.Moreover, in Japan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Thailand, younger adults are more likely than older ones to approve of Biden’s handling of the war. More

A Donald Trump fundraiser in London, where his eldest son will be the star guest, has already clocked up $2m (£1.57m) in donations before it takes place on Wednesday, according to organisers.The event is being hosted by the actor and singer Holly Valance, who has become an increasingly influential figure on Britain’s radical right since meeting the former president in the US in the company of Nigel Farage.Farage will take a break from campaigning in the general election to attend the event along with American Republicans, including people who served in the last Trump White House and some tipped for roles if he wins again.They include Richard Grenell – a former acting director of US national intelligence who served as the US ambassador to Germany – who has been playing a role as a roving international envoy for Trump.The event is billed as a reception and dinner with Donald Trump Jr and his fiancee, Kimberly Guilfoyle, a lawyer and former Fox News host.View image in fullscreenOther hosts include Woody Johnson, the owner of the New York Jets NFL team who was Trump’s ambassador to the UK, along with George Glass, the US ambassador to Portugal under Trump, and Duke Buchan, his ambassador to Spain.Scott Bessent, a prominent Trump fundraiser who is tipped as a potential treasury secretary, is also expected to attend.While Trump himself is on the US presidential campaign trail, he may make a virtual appearance, or at least send a recorded video message similar to the one that was played at Farage’s 60th birthday in April.The event is expected to take place at a private residence in Chelsea or Knightsbridge, with about 100 people attending.Invites bearing a Trump logo list a number of different categories under which attenders can make donation, such as “host committee” ($100,000 a couple) and “dinner” ($50,000). A photo opportunity will cost $25,000, while simple attendance is $10,000.Some of the donations already raised are understood to be in excess of $100,000. Valance, who is married to the billionaire property tycoon Nick Candy, qualifies to make donations to Trump as a US green card holder.Valance and Candy have been publicly associated with Trump and Farage since at least April 2022, when Farage tweeted a picture of the four of them after a dinner at the former president’s Palm Beach resort, Mar-a-Lago.Since then, reports have gone as far as suggesting that she was under consideration as a Conservative candidate to run in the London mayoral elections, and more recently as a candidate for Farage’s Reform UK party in the general election.She attended the launch earlier this year of the Popular Conservatism – or “PopCon” – movement, co-founded by the former prime minister Liz Truss. The former Tory leader will not be attending the Trump fundraiser.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionValance told GB News after the event: “I would say that everyone starts as a lefty and then wakes up at some point after you start either making money, working, trying to run a business, trying to buy a home, and then realise what crap ideas they all are, and then you go to the right.”Earlier this month she was among those who claimed credit for encouraging Farage to run again, saying she had been “whispering in his ear for a long, long time, saying ‘c’mon’”.Greg Swenson, a spokesperson for Republicans Overseas UK, a campaign group for Trump’s party, said the former president’s trial and conviction in New York had “energised” supporters in Britain and the US.“We’ve already noticed that people who were writing cheques for $100 are now writing for $1,000. The question is what it means for the independents and those who are undecided,” he added.While super-wealthy donors will be gathering for the Trump event, London-based supporters and would-be supporters of his Democratic opponent will be gathering for a £40-a-head comedy event.Kristin Kaplan Wolfe, the chair of Democrats Abroad UK, said: “While Republicans eat their $100,000 a couple dinner with Donald Trump Jr here in London, our UK volunteers will be helping Americans register to vote so we devour them at the ballot box in November.“We invite all Republicans living in the UK who can’t stomach the idea of dinner with Donald Trump Jr to join our big tent party and help defeat Donald Trump Sr at the ballot box in November.” More

JD Vance, a rightwing senator vying to be Donald Trump’s running mate, has inadvertently revealed that as part of his vetting for the role, he was asked questions that might disqualify Trump himself.Talking to Fox & Friends, the Republican senator for Ohio told co-host Steve Doocy that his team had been asked “for a number of things” as part of a traditional background check for the vice-president role, adding that “a number of people have been asked to submit this and that”.Doocy interjected: “Like your taxes or something?” before raising the ante: “Your criminal background?”Vance replied: “I don’t know everything they’ve been asked, yeah, but certainly like: ‘Have you ever committed a crime?’ ‘Have you ever lied about this?’”The exchange elicited an immediate response on social media. Jen Psaki, the former Biden White House spokesperson – and now an anchor on MSNBC, posted that Trump “could not pass his own vetting materials for Vice President”. Others suggested that committing a crime or lying may be a requirement for a place on the ticket.Trump himself was given a criminal record last month after he was convicted on 34 counts of document falsification relating to hush money paid to an adult film actor in an effort to win the 2016 presidential election.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHe has also bucked a long-standing convention that presidential candidates release their tax returns, and earlier this year was ordered to pay a $464m penalty for fraudulently inflating property values. More

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American psyche: a new series exploring the angst at the heart of the US election

She was sentenced to prison for voting. Her story is part of a Republican effort to intimidate others
Americans don’t have much faith in America right now. Or at least not in its institutions.In 2022, a Gallup poll found that Americans had experienced “significant declines” in trust in 11 of 16 major US institutions. The supreme court and the presidency saw the largest drops in public confidence – by 11% and 15%, respectively. Trust also fell in the medical system, banks, police, public schools and newspapers.Things didn’t improve in 2023: a follow-up poll found that levels of trust remained low, with none of the scores “worsening or improving meaningfully”.Public confidence waxes and wanes, but these numbers are notably bleak. Trust in institutions has “never been lower”, confirms Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor of the Gallup poll and the author of the 2022 report.This mistrust is not a one-time blip, a rough patch in an otherwise happy relationship between a country and its people. According to polling experts, it is partly the result of a decades-long effort by political leaders to erode public confidence in institutions such as science, media and government. And the consequences are serious. Not trusting the forces that govern their lives is detrimental to the health and wellbeing of individuals and communities, and makes the country less prepared to face a major crisis.“Trust is the grease that oils the gears and makes things work,” says Dr Marc Hetherington, professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “Without it, everything is more difficult.”But how did we lose this trust in the first place? And is there a way to get it back?With the exception of a couple of surges, the US “has been in a really low-trust environment since the 1970s”, says Hetherington.At that point, public confidence in institutions started to fall. Part of this was a natural leveling out. After the second world war, trust levels had been “extraordinarily high”, Hetherington says. “Probably anomalously so.”And part of it was due to the simple fact that – after the civil unrest of the 1960s and the energy crisis followed by stagflation of the 1970s – many Americans felt the government just wasn’t performing very well.But there was another force at play. Around this time, the Republican party became “the anti-government party”, Hetherington says. “There was a lot of political hay to be made from actively saying negative things about institutions, and it helped win elections.”By 1984, the Republican party’s official platform condemned government overreach. “Not every problem cries out for a federal solution,” it read.Over the next few decades, there were spikes of trust – usually during sunny economic times, like in the middle of the Reagan administration or at the end of the Clinton presidency. There were also spikes that arose from crises, like the months following 9/11.View image in fullscreenBut overall, trust trended downwards. “For the last 20 years, confidence has been depressed,” Jones says. He notes two major drops. The first during the second term of the George W Bush administration, when average confidence dropped 10%, and the second from 2019 to now, when average confidence dropped another 10% (save a brief spike during the early days of Covid).Numbers can feel abstract. But the effects of low public confidence are very concrete for both individuals and communities.“As individuals, we rely on institutions to sustain various aspects of our lives, whether we realize it or not,” says Keanu Jackson, a licensed social worker and therapist in New York City. Trust gets undermined when people feel like the institutions they rely on are not concerned with their wellbeing, he says, adding that when it happens, it can lead to “feelings of disillusionment, increased anxiety and stress, identity confusion, and a decreased sense of stability”.Constantly questioning the organizations that govern our lives is exhausting. “Having institutions that we trust is an easier lift for us cognitively,” says Dr Lynn Bufka, deputy chief of professional practice at the American Psychological Association. If someone feels that they have to double-check government guidance, news reports and medical directives, it wears on them and leads to a greater sense of uncertainty and anxiety.Low public confidence can also suggest “a lower collective sense of who we are”, Bufka notes. If Americans don’t have a shared understanding of how institutions represent them and what they can depend on, that may lead to greater splintering between groups. “That can potentially lead to anticipation of more general conflict, which at minimum would put you on edge,” she says.On a larger scale, the effects can be even more devastating. And perhaps they already have been, Hetherington says.Consider the Covid crisis. “Government was responsible for carrying out whatever ideas scientists thought were best practices,” he says. But significant mistrust of both the government and the science made many Americans treat official health guidelines with suspicion, if not outright rejection. “The ramifications of that are pretty clear. Probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths happen in the US,” Hetherington says.Is there potential to turn it around? Experts are torn.Jones says he is not optimistic that there will be a reversal in the mistrust trend anytime soon. In the past, he says, moments of economic prosperity have buoyed public trust, but he’s not sure that can happen any more. “Even when the economy’s good, there’s still economic angst,” he says.Hetherington says that, given how unwilling both major political parties seem to give each other any credit, he doubts “whether it’s even possible” to have a meaningful surge in trust. “I’ve come up with lots of problems and too few solutions,” he admits.Bufka is more optimistic. Leaders can rebuild trust with their public, she says. In the American Psychological Association’s 2023 Stress in America report, 59% of Americans said it is stressful that “politicians aren’t talking about things that are most important to them”.So, Bufka says, leaders need to speak on issues that matter to people. “Are [officials] talking about the things that are important to the people they represent? Does the news focus on things that are important to the average person?” Doing this, and explaining how and why they are making decisions, makes a big difference, she says.“Institutions have some opportunity to make change here, and it’s important for those who have power to think about what it is they could do,” she says. “It often comes down to transparent and honest communication.” More

More than a third of Harvard’s graduating seniors are heading into finance or management consulting – two professions notable for how quickly their practitioners “make a bag”, or make money, reports the New York Times.Similar percentages show up in other prestigious universities.Frankly, if anything, I’m surprised that only a third of graduating seniors at Harvard and similar places are heading into finance and consulting.In this era of raging income inequality and billionaire robber barons, the bags are gigantic. At Goldman Sachs they start at $105,000 to $164,000. At McKinsey, $100,000 to $140,000.And that’s just the first year.Think of it: make a bag and then do whatever you really want to do without ever again worrying about money. Make a bag and support whatever good causes you believe in without having to work at social change. Make a bag and you’ll never have to grovel to those with wealth and power.When I graduated Dartmouth College in 1968, almost no one I knew went into finance or consulting. In those days, inequalities were minuscule compared with now. The bags at that time could have fit into a glove compartment.One of the least-discussed but most profound consequences of America’s surging inequality is the number of talented young people now devoting themselves to making bags.Remarkably, though, most talented young people are not yet in the bag.For most of the last 43 years I’ve taught at several of America’s most prestigious universities. The biggest change I’ve seen over the years isn’t how starry-eyed students have become about finance and consulting.It’s how passionate they’ve become about making the world better.Sure, I’ve noticed the mini-stampede into finance and consulting. But graduates out to make a bag are still the minority.Most graduates are joining non-profits, entering politics or becoming community organizers, public defenders, teachers, healthcare workers, diplomats, staffers on congressional committees, union organizers and environmental activists.The conservative columnist David Brooks bemoans this trend. In a recent column he laments that at elite universities “the share of progressive students and professors has steadily risen, and the share of conservatives has approached zero”.He cites a May 2023 survey of Harvard’s graduating class showing 65% identifying as progressive or very progressive.Why is this happening? Brooks thinks the gen Z cohort at prestigious universities is so tormented by the cognitive dissonance between their positions of privilege and their commitments to social justice that they must “prove to themselves and others” that they’re “on the side of the oppressed”.It doesn’t seem to have dawned on Brooks that, at least since the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2017, the meaning of “progressive” has shifted from someone who wants a more just society to someone who simply wants to preserve democracy.To be a “progressive” at a prestigious university these days – indeed, to be a progressive anywhere in America – is no longer to be on the political left as the left used to be defined. It’s to be on the side of the constitution, the rule of law, and a modicum of decency.This is why so many more undergraduates and professors now deem themselves progressive.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionI agree with Brooks that elite universities should dismantle arrangements that let the privileged members of society pass down their educational privileges to their children, while locking out most everyone else – for example, by ending affirmative action for legacies and calling on the private sector to remove college prerequisites for decent-paying jobs.But Brooks and other conservatives are dead wrong about which elite is holding back the rest of America. It’s not the educated class. It’s the moneyed class.America’s corporate and financial elites have flooded American politics with money in order to receive government subsidies, bailouts, tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks – all of which ratchet up their wealth, entrench their power and make it harder for average working people to advance.Trump and much of his Republican party are deploying criticisms of the educated class to pose as populists on the side of the people.Consider Elise Stefanik, Harvard class of ’06 and chair of the House Republican Conference, who doesn’t miss an opportunity to attack elite universities and their presidents. Or Senator Josh Hawley, Stanford class of ’02 and Yale Law ’06, who calls the recent student demonstrations signs of “moral rot”.It’s all a thinly veiled cover for their efforts to help the wealthy make even bigger bags while keeping everyone else – especially average workers – down.At this moment, Republicans are promising the moneyed class that in return for financial backing in the upcoming election, they’ll get an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts – which disproportionately boosted the wealth of big corporations and the rich – plus additional tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks.This could expand the national debt by roughly $1tn over the next decade, rendering it impossible for the government to invest in things average Americans desperately need – such as childcare, eldercare, affordable housing, and, yes, affordable higher education.Brooks thinks that if present trends continue, there will be a populist uprising – “a multiracial, multiprong, right/left alliance against the educated class”.For Brooks, the lesson is that the educated class must “seriously reform the system or be prepared to be run over”.He’s wrong. The real lesson is we must reform the system created by the moneyed class – or be prepared to run the moneyed class over.
Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His newest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com More

Sixteen days before the Brexit referendum, and only two days before the deadline to apply to cast a ballot, the IT system for voter registrations collapsed. The remain and leave campaigns were forced to agree a 48-hour registration extension. Around the same time, evidence was beginning to emerge of a major Russian “hack-and-leak” operation targeting the US presidential election. Inevitably, questions arose as to whether the Russians had successfully disrupted the Brexit vote.The truth was more embarrassingly simple. A comprehensive technical investigation, supported by the National Cyber Security Centre – which I headed at the time – set out in detail what had happened. A TV debate on Brexit had generated unexpected interest. Applications spiked to double those projected. The website couldn’t cope and crashed. There was no sign of any hostile activity.But this conclusive evidence did not stop a parliamentary committee, a year later, saying that it did “not rule out the possibility that there was foreign interference” in the incident. No evidence was provided for this remarkable assertion. What actually happened was a serious failure of state infrastructure, but it was not a hostile act.This story matters because it has become too easy – even fashionable – to cast the integrity of elections into doubt. “Russia caused Brexit” is nothing more than a trope that provides easy comfort to the losing side. There was, and is, no evidence of any successful cyber operations or other digital interference in the UK’s 2016 vote.But Brexit is far from the only example of such electoral alarmism. In its famous report on Russia in 2020, the Intelligence and Security Committee correctly said that the first detected attempt by Russia to interfere in British politics occurred in the context of the Scottish referendum campaign in 2014.However, the committee did not add that the quality of such efforts was risible, and the impact of them was zero. Russia has been waging such campaigns against the UK and other western democracies for years. Thankfully, though, it hasn’t been very good at it. At least so far.Over the course of the past decade, there are only two instances where digital interference can credibly be seen to have severely affected a democratic election anywhere in the world. The US in 2016 is undoubtedly one. The other is Slovakia last year, when an audio deepfake seemed to have an impact on the polls late on.The incident in Slovakia fuelled part of a new wave of hysteria about electoral integrity. Now the panic is all about deepfakes. But we risk making exactly the same mistake with deepfakes as we did with cyber-attacks on elections: confusing activity and intent with impact, and what might be technically possible with what is realistically achievable.So far, it has proved remarkably hard to fool huge swathes of voters with deepfakes. Many of them, including much of China’s information operations, are poor in quality. Even some of the better ones – like a recent Russian fake of Ukrainian TV purporting to show Kyiv admitting it was behind the Moscow terror attacks – look impressive, but are so wholly implausible in substance they are not believed by anyone. Moreover, a co-ordinated response by a country to a deepfake can blunt its impact: think of the impressive British response to the attempt to smear Sadiq Khan last November, when the government security minister lined up behind the Labour mayor of London in exhorting the British media and public to pay no attention to a deepfake audio being circulated.This was in marked contrast to events in Slovakia, where gaps in Meta’s removal policy, and the country’s electoral reporting restrictions, made it much harder to circulate the message that the controversial audio was fake. If a deepfake does cut through in next month’s British election, what matters is how swiftly and comprehensively it is debunked.None of this is to be complacent about the reality that hostile states are trying to interfere in British politics. They are. And with fast-developing tech and techniques, the threat picture can change. “Micro” operations, such as a localised attempt to use AI to persuade voters in New Hampshire to stay at home during the primaries, are one such area of concern. In the course of the UK campaign, one of my main worries would be about targeted local disinformation and deepfake campaigns in individual contests. It is important that the government focuses resources and capabilities on blunting these operations.But saying that hostile states are succeeding in interfering in our elections, or that they are likely to, without providing any tangible evidence is not a neutral act. In fact, it’s really dangerous. If enough supposedly credible voices loudly cast aspersions on the integrity of elections, at least some voters will start to believe them. And if that happens, we will have done the adversaries’ job for them.There is a final reason why we should be cautious about the “something-must-be-done” tendency where the risk of electoral interference is concerned. State intervention in these matters is not some cost-free, blindingly obvious solution that the government is too complacent to use. If false information is so great a problem that it requires government action, that requires, in effect, creating an arbiter of truth. To which arm of the state would we wish to assign this task?
Ciaran Martin is a professor at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, and a former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre More