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The Year in Charts

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Opinion

The Year in Charts

A tour of the major trends, from Covid-19 spread to political polarization, that affected Americans this year.

Mr. Rattner served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration. Lalena Fisher is a graphics editor for The Times.

  • Dec. 31, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET
Credit…Daniel Roland/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

If 2019 was the Year of Trump, then 2020 was the Year of Covid-19 and Trump. Only the most devastating pandemic in a century could have bumped our loudmouthed president into second place. That is, until Joe Biden also took him down a peg, in a free and fair election with an unambiguous result — except in the world of Trump. And oh yes, all of this occurred during the biggest recession since the Great Depression.

Not all of this year’s ugliness can be charted. In particular, the death of George Floyd certainly should be high on the list of what made 2020 so awful, and so should how President Trump abetted the tensions that have divided America. But that still leaves plenty of material for this, my ninth annual year in charts.

As early as January, experts at the World Health Organization told us the virus was coming. That was followed in March by eruptions in Italy, Spain and elsewhere. Yet we did little under the leadership of a president who kept telling us it would “go away.” Even after the coronavirus nearly brought the New York City area to its knees, the Trump administration responded feebly. Many parts of the country — particularly places where Mr. Trump remained popular — refused to take simple precautions like wearing masks.

By fall, the greatest country on earth led the developed world in total cases. More than 340,000 Americans have died, more than the number killed in combat in World War II.





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Confirmed coronavirus cases per million residents

United

States

50 thousand

Spain

40

France

ELECTION

Britain

Italy

30

Germany

20

Canada

10

Japan

South Korea

March

April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Confirmed coronavirus cases per million residents

United

States

50 thousand

Spain

40

France

ELECTION

Britain

Italy

30

Germany

20

Canada

10

Japan

South Korea

March

June

Sept.

Dec.

Sources: State and local health agencies and hospitals; Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University; National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China; World Health Organization.·Totals through Dec. 28.

While the human toll remains paramount, the economic collapse was also vast. In just two months, more than 22 million jobs vanished, more than in any other postwar recession. While 12 million jobs have been added to payrolls since April, job growth has decelerated steadily since June. Just 245,000 jobs were added in November, and forward-looking indicators, like new claims for unemployment benefits, suggest the next monthly report, on Jan. 8, could show another loss. The climb back to the employment levels of early 2020 may take many years.





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Percentage change from peak employment in economic downturns

0%

1990

2001

Other recessions

since World War II

2008 Great Recession

–5%

2020

–10

–15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Months since employment peak

Percentage change from peak employment

in economic downturns

0%

1990

2001

2008 Great Recession

–5%

2020

–10

–15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Months since employment peak

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recessions rarely spread their pain evenly, and that’s surely been true in 2020. Workers with less education, younger workers and people of color have been hit the hardest.

At the low point this year, 21 percent of Latinos had lost their jobs compared to 16 percent of whites. Similarly, 28 percent of those without high school diplomas became unemployed. And after years of gains, more women than men lost their jobs. This is all because job losses were concentrated in service industries, such as retail stores, restaurants and hotels, which employ a disproportionate number of these Americans. The stock market, meanwhile, notched double-digit returns, and the net worth of the wealthiest American, Jeff Bezos, has risen by $89 billion since March.





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Changes in employment over

the course of the pandemic

February employment levels

Lowest month

Latest

All U.S.

Black

Latino

Asian

White

Some college

H.S. graduate

Less than H.S.

College grad.

Women

Men

Age 16-24

Age 55+

Age 25-54

–35%

–30

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

Changes in employment over the course

of the pandemic

February employment

levels

Lowest month

Latest

All U.S.

Black

Latino

Asian

White

Some college

H.S. graduate

Less than H.S.

College grad.

Women

Men

Age 16-24

Age 55+

Age 25-54

–30%

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics·The lowest month in employment was April for all groups except Asians and those with less than a high school diploma; for these, the lowest month was May.

Amid all that, record numbers of Americans turned out to elect a new president. While Mr. Trump retained much of his white, working-class base, other parts of the electorate shifted enough to give Joe Biden a larger popular vote margin than Hillary Clinton achieved in 2016, enough to flip the Electoral College decisively. Mr. Biden made particularly big inroads among moderates and independents; he won 54 percent of independents, a swing of 17 percentage points from 2016.

Mr. Biden also made gains among suburban voters and those in small cities and rural areas, although Mr. Trump still won 57 percent of this last group. The president also did surprisingly well among minority groups: compared to the 2016 results, he improved by 6 percentage points among Black voters, 5 percentage points among Latinos and 11 percentage points among Asians. It turns out, as Jay Caspian Kang and others have written, that people of color are not an electoral monolith.





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Percentage point difference in vote margin from 2016 presidential election, by group

5

10

15

Moderates

Independents

Small city or rural area

White men, college degree

Catholic

White men, no college degree

Among these voters, Biden increased support compared

to Clinton in 2016.

Suburban area

Whites

65 and over

White women, college degree

High school graduate or less

Among these voters, Trump

increased support compared

to his 2016 run.

30-44 years old

City of 50,000 or more

Latino or Hispanic

Incomes under $30,000

Blacks

Republicans

Asians

Incomes $100,000 and over

Percentage point difference

in vote margin from 2016

presidential election, by group

5

10

15

Moderates

Independents

Small city/rural

White men, college deg.

Catholic

White men, no college deg.

Among these voters, Biden increased support compared

to Clinton in 2016.

Suburban

Whites

65 and over

White women, college deg.

High school grad. or less

Among these voters, Trump

increased support compared

to his 2016 run.

30-44 years old

City of 50,000+

Latino or Hispanic

Incomes under $30,000

Blacks

Republicans

Asians

Incomes $100,000+

Source: Edison Research

America’s increasing polarization seems to have become an article of faith. Regrettably, the facts support this worrisome shift. When George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000, 56 percent of the votes were cast in counties that were reasonably evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. This year, evenly split counties accounted for only 42 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, the percentage of votes in “ultrapartisan” counties, in which one party won by more than 60 percentage points, more than doubled, to 7 percent from 3 percent in 2000.





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Change in share of presidential vote, 2000 to 2020, by level of county partisanship

2000

REPUBLICAN COUNTIES

DEMOCRATIC COUNTIES

30%

of national vote

25

20

2020

15

10

5

Most partisan

counties

Least partisan

counties

Most partisan

counties

Least partisan

counties

60+ POINT

MARGIN

40-60

20-40

0-20

60+ POINT

MARGIN

40-60

20-40

0-20

Change in share of presidential vote,

2000 to 2020, by level of county partisanship

REPUBLICAN COUNTIES

DEMOCRATIC COUNTIES

2000

30%

of national vote

25

20

2020

15

10

5

Most partisan

Least

partisan

Most partisan

Least

partisan

60+ POINT

MGN.

40-60

20-40

0-20

60+ POINT

MGN.

40-60

20-40

0-20

Source: David Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Below the top of the ticket, the news for Democrats was surprising and simply bad. The party managed to add just one seat in the Senate, with two Georgia races to be decided next Tuesday. In the House, Democrats have lost 10 seats so far with two races not yet called, a rare occurrence for a party whose candidate won the presidency. Once again, the polls fell short; many experts believed Democrats would win the Senate and gain seven or so seats in the House. Worse, the results suggest that the Democrats have a messaging problem; Republican claims that their opponents were socialists who wanted to defund the police and abolish private health insurance seem to have resonated.





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Estimated number of seats to be won based on modeling, and latest results

SENATE

52

Estimate: 51.5

DEMOCRATS

51

Latest results:

50 Republican

50

49

Estimate: 48.5

REPUBLICANS

48

Latest results:

48 Democratic

47

Aug. 1

Sept. 1

Oct. 1

Nov. 1

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

240

Estimate: 239

DEMOCRATS

230

222

220

211

210

REPUBLICANS

200

Estimate: 196

190

Aug. 1

Sept. 1

Oct. 1

Nov. 1

Estimated number of seats to be won

based on modeling, and latest results

52

DEMOCRATS

51

50

49

REPUBLICANS

48

47

Aug. 1

Sept. 1

Oct. 1

Nov. 1

240

DEMOCRATS

230

220

210

REPUBLICANS

200

190

Aug. 1

Sept. 1

Oct. 1

Nov. 1

Source: FiveThirtyEight

A year ago, Mr. Trump’s government by tweet seemed to have reached maximum velocity. But never underestimate his ability to take craziness to a new level. In 2020, his yearly total reached nearly 12,000, compared to 7,547 in 2019. On one day in June, he set a personal record of 200 tweets and retweets. In early October, he sent 42 tweets in just two hours while being treated for Covid-19. Along the way, the tone deteriorated. After the election, he pushed fringe views of election-rigging that were so devoid of any legitimacy that Twitter began attaching disclaimers to more of his messages.





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Election

Average number

of Trump’s tweets

per day, by month

Trump tests positive for the coronavirus

Twitter begins to label Trump’s false claims

40

30

20

10

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

Election

Trump tests positive for the coronavirus

Twitter begins to label Trump’s false claims

40

Average number

of Trump’s tweets

per day, by month

30

20

10

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source: Trump Twitter Archive·Activity through Dec. 28. Includes retweets.

Tweets were just a part of the craziness of the Trump White House. Huge staff turnover was another. Of Mr. Trump’s 15 initial cabinet members, nine, so far, have not survived his term in office. In the White House, 59 of his 65 top aides have left, many of them before the end of Mr. Trump’s first year. That’s more than any other recent president. In certain positions, there was serial turnover; Mr. Trump has had six different communications directors and deputy national security advisers.





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Percentage of top White House jobs that changed hands

TOTAL

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Trump

35

31

17

8

91%

Obama

9

15

43

4

71

G.W. Bush

63

6

27

25

5

Clinton

11

27

20

16

74

G.H.W. Bush

7

18

32

9

66

Reagan

17

40

13

8

78

Percentage of top White House jobs

that changed hands

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

4

TOTAL

Trump

35

31

17

8

91%

Obama

9

15

43

4

71

G.W. Bush

6

27

25

5

63

Clinton

11

27

20

16

74

G.H.W. Bush

7

18

32

9

66

Reagan

17

40

13

8

78

Source: Brookings Institution·Chart shows turnover in Trump’s White House as of Dec. 18, and excludes cabinet positions.

Amid the chaos, Mr. Trump managed to make a deep impact on the judiciary. As his term neared its end, he had put 234 judges with lifetime appointments onto the federal courts. That’s far more than Barack Obama managed in his first term and more than any other recent president. A full 30 percent of appeals court judges have been appointed by Mr. Trump, the largest first-term share in four decades.

And let’s not forget his three Supreme Court appointments, the most in one term since Ronald Reagan. Mr. Trump was aided in this effort by the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, who streamlined the consideration process last year to allow more confirmations.





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Article III court appointments in each president’s first term

Appellate courts

All other courts

54

180

Trump

234

Obama

30

141

171

G.W. Bush

35

169

204

Clinton

30

173

203

G.H.W. Bush

41

146

187

Reagan

33

131

164

Article III court appointments in each president’s first term

Appellate courts

All other courts

54

180

Trump

234

Obama

30

141

171

G.W. Bush

35

169

204

Clinton

30

173

203

G.H.W. Bush

41

146

187

Reagan

33

131

164

Source: Heritage Foundation·Chart shows appointments as of Dec. 22 in each president’s fourth year in office.

Judges are not Mr. Trump’s only legacy. Well before the coronavirus upended the economy, Mr. Trump had put the country on track for a return to trillion-dollar deficits, a terrible policy when unemployment was near record low levels. His administration promised that the 2017 tax cut would pay for itself; it never came close. He enabled huge spending increases. Then came Covid-19.





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Federal budget balance, 12-month sum, in trillions

$0

CARES Act signed

CLINTON

G.W. BUSH

OBAMA

–1

Tax Cut and Jobs Act signed into law

–2

TRUMP

RECESSIONS

–3

’98

’00

’02

’04

’06

’08

’10

’12

’14

’16

’18

’20

Federal budget balance, 12-month sum, trillions

$0

CARES Act signed

CLINTON

G.W. BUSH

OBAMA

–1

Tax Cut and Jobs Act signed into law

–2

TRUMP

RECESSIONS

–3

’98

’00

’02

’04

’06

’08

’10

’12

’14

’16

’18

’20

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

The resulting stimulus bills were essential to keeping the American economy together, but coming on top of an already huge deficit, the additional spending sent the nation’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product soaring past 100 percent for the first time since World War II. As with so much else, Mr. Trump is leaving this mess behind for others to fix.





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Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of G.D.P.

Current trajectory

September projection

END OF WORLD WAR II

 

100%

80

Pre-pandemic projection

60

40

20

’40

’50

’60

’70

’80

’90

’00

’10

’20

’30

Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of G.D.P.

Current trajectory

September projection

END OF WORLD WAR II

 

100%

80

Pre-

pandemic projection

60

40

20

’40

’50

’60

’70

’80

’90

’00

’10

’20

’30

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget·“Pre-pandemic projection” is based on a C.B.O. March 2020 baseline forecast. “Current trajectory” is a September C.R.F.B. forecast that assumes $1 trillion of fiscal support, extension of various expiring tax provisions, and appropriations growth in proportion to that of the economy.

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