Boris Johnson has appealed for unity as rebel Conservative MPs warned he had to provide “hard” evidence for the introduction of controversial new lockdown tiers or face a backbench revolt.
As his foreign secretary raised the spectre of a possible third wave of cases next year, the prime minister said the government’s plans would protect the NHS from becoming “overwhelmed” and allow the economy to re-open safely.
But in a letter to potential rebels he added that with a vaccine in sight “now more than ever is the time to demonstrate unity and resolve”.
In a dramatic climbdown over the weekend, Mr Johnson also offered to end the new system early, after just nine weeks, and to give MPs a separate vote on whether or not the restrictions should continue until March.
But Tory MPs warned their concerns about the economic impact of the strict new tiers remained.
In a message to Downing Street, Mark Harper, the chair of the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) of Tory MPs, said: “Show us that the measures that are being proposed are going to be effective and show us the cost.”
“We need hard evidence not hyperbole,” he added.
Under the plan, on which MPs will vote on Tuesday, 99 per cent of England will be allowed to socialise inside pubs and restaurants only with their own household or not at all.
Last week, 70 members of the group wrote to the prime minister asking him to publish a cost-benefit analysis of the tiers.
Downing Street has said the information will be made available before Tuesday’s vote.
Mr Harper also told Times Radio that in parts of England a county-by-county approach was “sensible, but I can see in some parts of the country where you have much bigger variance … that might not actually be sensible”.
Pauline Latham, the Conservative MP for Mid-Derbyshire, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “I think it will depend very much on what Boris does between now and Tuesday.
“If he produces that evidence and he can prove to us that he’s got good evidence to go on, then I think he won’t have a rebellion.”
Earlier, the foreign secretary Dominic Raab had raised the spectre of a return to national lockdown as he defended the new tiers.
He said the restrictions were part of a determined effort to come out of a national lockdown “and stay out”.
He also warned of the “risk” of a third wave of cases in the New Year if ministers did not get the virus under control, and downplayed the idea ministers would abandon the current county-by-county approach.
In his letter to members of the CRG group, Mr Johnson wrote: “As all of us know too well, these are very difficult times for our country and the whole world. No government or parliament has had to grapple with issues of this difficulty and magnitude since the end of the Second World War.
“Disagreement on approach is natural, and I hope you recognise that the government is seeking as far as possible to listen to criticism and respond positively to constructive proposals.
“I do believe that the strategy set out is a balanced approach, which helps protect the NHS from being overwhelmed, keeps children attending school, and lets the economy open up in a safe way, and the best way forward.
“There is every reason to hope and believe that the worst is nearly behind us, so now more than ever is the time to demonstrate unity and resolve. As we move from winter to spring, the prospects offered by vaccines and testing mean we can begin the process of recovery in earnest and focus our energies once again on improving the lives of the people we were elected to serve.”
In an article in the Mail on Sunday Mr Johnson urged his MPs to back the measures, telling them it was “crucial to understand that with the help of these scientific advances we hope to make progress – and to de-escalate – BEFORE Easter.”
He added that the new restrictions in place from Wednesday would not be a lockdown.
“We are so nearly out of our captivity. We can see the sunlit upland pastures ahead. But if we try to jump the fence now, we will simply tangle ourselves in the last barbed wire, with disastrous consequences for the NHS.”
Tory MP and former children’s minister Tim Loughton said that unless MPs received the cost-benefit analysis they have asked for between now and Tuesday, the prime minister’s letter offering a new sunset clause “does not change anything, I’m afraid”.
A number of other Tory MPs have said they will decide how to vote once they see the government’s impact assessment.
Labour have yet to commit to vote for the measures.
However, the party has yet to vote against public health measures since the pandemic began.
Ministers pointed to the latest figures from the large-scale REACT study, which showed infections across England fell by 30 per cent during an 11-day period towards the beginning of the latest lockdown.
The findings also confirm cases were rising as the country entered lockdown, despite the less stringent tier system in place at that time.
The Department of Health last night said the new tiers would be “crucial to safeguarding” the gains made during lockdown.
