Boris Johnson should reverse the reopening of high-risk indoor venues like pubs and gyms and some shops as part of a drive to get England as close as possible to “zero Covid” before the winter strikes, a member of the Independent Sage group of scientists has said.
And Professor Susan Michie told The Independent the government should be providing financial support to people self-isolating and offering hotel rooms for quarantine, to ensure effective implementation of a key element of the fight against coronavirus which is currently virtually voluntary.
Her comments came as Mr Johnson postponed plans to reopen bowling alleys, wedding receptions and skating rinks following an upward surge in cases, while chief medical officer Chris Whitty warned that England was now “near the limit” of the restrictions which can be relaxed without losing control of the virus.
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Professor Whitty told a Downing Street press conference on Friday: “If we wish to do more things in the future, we may have to do less of some other things.”
A member of the government’s official Sage group of scientific advisers, Professor Graham Medley, today backed Prof Whitty’s message, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It might come down to a question of which do you trade off against each other and then that’s a matter of prioritising. Do we think pubs are more important than schools?”
left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch.
1/50 31 July 2020People enjoy the sunny weather at a Bournemouth Beach
Reuters
2/50 30 July 2020An artist puts the finishing touches to a wax figure of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in the entrance line at Madame Tussaud’s in London, as the attraction prepares to reopen to the public following the easing of lockdown restrictions in England
PA
3/50 29 July 2020A member of staff stands on Ai Weiwei’s ‘History of Bombs’ during a photocall for the Chinese artist’s new work on display at the Imperial War Museum in London
PA
4/50 28 July 2020Stuart Broad celebrates after taking the wicket of West Indies batsman Kraigg Brathwaite. It was a milestone wicket in his career, reaching his 500th Test Wicket for England. They went on to beat the West Indies in Manchester and therefore win the series 2-1
Getty/ECB
5/50 27 July 2020Demonstrators protest outside the Tate Modern in London over proposed job losses in the wake of the Covid-19 lockdown. The group believe that the emergency money provided by the government to culture-based organisations should be used to retain all jobs and that any other use of the funding is unfair. The gallery on London’s South Bank, as well as the Tate Britain, Tate Liverpool and Tate St Ives, reopened today after closing in March due to lockdown measures meant to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus
Getty
6/50 26 July 2020Harry Maguire shakes hands with Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers after Manchester United beat the Foxes. The win meant they finished third in the Premier League and Leicester finished outside a Champions League place in fourth
Pool via Reuters
7/50 25 July 2020Women exercise using pool noodles during an aqua fit class at a gym in Sunbury-on-Thames after gyms and swimming pools were allowed to reopen
AFP via Getty
8/50 24 July 2020Mayor of London Sadiq Khan tries out a new Streetspace protected cycle lane in London at the launch a new online cycle training scheme
PA
9/50 23 July 2020A customer has her hair cut outside at Blade Hairdressers in Soho in London
Getty
10/50 22 July 2020Liverpool’s English midfielder Jordan Henderson lifts the Premier League trophy during the presentation following the English Premier League football match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield in Liverpool. Liverpool on Wednesday lifted the Premier League trophy at the famous Kop stand at Anfield after their final home game of the season
AFP via Getty
11/50 21 July 2020Vivienne Westwood demonstrates outside the Old Bailey in support of Julian Assange in London
Reuters
12/50 20 July 2020Comet Neowise in the skies over the Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank in Cheshire
PA
13/50 19 July 2020Mods and rockers unite on Madeira Drive, Brighton, for a demonstration to call for the reopening of the road which Brighton & Hove City Council plans to keep closed permanently
PA
14/50 18 July 2020People enjoy the sunny weather at Painshill, an 18th century landscape garden in Cobham, Surrey
PA
15/50 17 July 2020Captain Sir Thomas Moore receives his knighthood from Queen Elizabeth, during a ceremony at Windsor Castle
AP
16/50 16 July 2020Red Arrows do a flypast during the Graduation Ceremony of the Queen’s Squadron at RAF College Cranwell, Lincolnshire
The Daily Telegraph/PA
17/50 15 July 2020Jen Reid poses in front of a black resin and steel statue titled ‘A Surge of Power (Jen Reid) 2020’, which is based on her by Marc Quinn, where it has been installed on the vacant Edward Colston plinth in Bristol city centre. The original statue was pulled down and thrown into Bristol Harbour during Black Lives Matter protests
PA
18/50 14 July 2020Fields of echium and borage in full flower near the town of Thaxted in Essex
PA
19/50 13 July 2020People ride a rollercoaster in a theme park next to Southend pier. Many businesses in tourism and hospitality have been able to reopen after some lockdown measures were eased
Getty
20/50 12 July 2020West Indies’s John Campbell and Jason Holder celebrate winning the test as England’s Rory Burns and teammates look on dejected
Reuters
21/50 11 July 2020Chicldren play in the water during a cricket match between Abinger and Worplesdon & Nurpham in Abinger Hammer, Surrey
Reuters
22/50 10 July 2020People gather for the funeral of Dame Vera Lynn in Ditchling, England. During World War II she travelled to the frontlines, including Burma, entertaining British troops and boosting morale. She died on 18 June at her home in West Sussex
Getty
23/50 9 July 2020Artist Anish Kapoor looks into his sculpture ‘Sky Mirror’ at Houghton Hall, King’s Lynn, ahead of the opening of his largest UK exhibition of outdoor sculptures
PA
24/50 8 July 2020Players take a knee in support of the Black Lives Matter movement on the first day of the first Test cricket match between England and the West Indies at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton
AFP via Getty
25/50 7 July 2020A circus performer from the Association of Circus Proprietors in Whitehall, London. The association handed a petition to Downing Street to ask Prime Minister Boris Johnson to allow circuses to reopen
EPA
26/50 6 July 2020Bamburgh Castle in Northumberland, which re-opened to the public after being closed due to the coronavirus lockdown
PA
27/50 5 July 2020People visit Columbia Road Flower Market, London, as it reopens following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions across England
PA
28/50 4 July 2020A member of bar staff wearing PPE in the form of a face mask, pours drinks inside the The Goldengrove in Stratford
AFP via Getty
29/50 3 July 2020Cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands prior to the League One play-off semi final match between Portsmouth and Oxford United at Fratton Park
PA
30/50 2 July 2020A diver cleans the inside window of the seal tank at Tynemouth Aquarium in North Shields, as it prepares to open on Saturday after further coronavirus lockdown restrictions are lifted in England
PA
31/50 1 July 2020Slackliner Sandor Nagy practices on the beach in Boscombe, on the south coast of England
AFP via Getty
32/50 30 June 2020(left to right) Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, former Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill attending the funeral of senior Irish Republican and former leading IRA figure Bobby Storey in west Belfast
PA
33/50 29 June 2020Former Team GB Rhythmic Gymnastic dancer Hannah Martin during a training session at Ouse Valley Viaduct in Sussex
Reuters
34/50 28 June 2020People visit Bolton Abbey in Yorkshire, that recently reopened following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restriction
PA
35/50 27 June 2020A protest for Justice for Shukri Abdi on Trafalgar Square in London, following a raft of Black Lives Matter protests across the UK
PA
36/50 26 June 2020Police at the scene of an incident at the Park Inn Hotel in central Glasgow. Scottish police said armed officers shot dead a man after a suspected stabbing in the city centre left six others injured, including one of their colleagues. Several roads were closed and the surrounding area was cordoned off
AFP via Getty
37/50 25 June 2020A horse is washed down at Haydock Racecourse
PA
38/50 24 June 2020People enjoy the hot weather on Margate beach
Reuters
39/50 23 June 2020Tony Bennett the owner of The Devereux pub in Temple, London. Pub and hospitality bosses have cheered the Government’s proposals to allow customers through their doors again on July 4 as “a welcome relief”. PA Photo. Picture date: Tuesday June 23, 2020. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that pubs, restaurants and cinemas will be able to reopen from July 4, with “one metre-plus” distancing measures in place
PA
40/50 22 June 2020Police forensics officers carry out a search near Forbury Gardens, in Reading town centre, the scene of a multiple stabbing attack which took place at around 7pm on Saturday, leaving three people dead and another three seriously injured
PA
41/50 21 June 2020Soccer Football – Premier League – Everton v Liverpool – Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain – June 21, 2020 Children play football outside the stadium before the match, as play resumes behind closed doors following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Action Images via Reuters
42/50 20 June 2020Arsenal’s midfielder Nicolas Pepe kneels before the Premier League match against Brighton and Hove Albion at the American Express Community Stadium in southern England
AFP via Getty
43/50 19 June 2020Bianca Walkden during a training session at the National Taekwondo Centre in Manchester
PA
44/50 18 June 2020French President Emmanuel Macron gestures about social distancing alongside Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he arrives at Downing Street for a meeting. Macron also visited London to commemorate the 80th anniversary of former French president Charles de Gaulle’s appeal to French people to resist the Nazi occupation during World War II
AFP
45/50 17 June 2020Players kneel, as well as, having ‘Black Lives Matter’ in place of names on their shirts prior to the start of the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Sheffield United at Villa Park in Birmingham. The league resumed after its three-month suspension because of coronavirus
AP
46/50 16 June 2020Motakhayyel ridden by Jim Crowley, right, wins the Buckingham Palace Handicap during day one of Royal Ascot. This year, the flat racing’s biggest meeting, is behind closed doors due to the coronavirus outbreak
PA
47/50 15 June 2020Queues form at Primark at the Rushden Lakes shopping complex after the government relaxed coronavirus lockdown laws significantly, allowing zoos, safari parks and non-essential shops to open to visitors
Getty
48/50 14 June 2020A man kneels at a commemoration to mark the third anniversary of the Grenfell Tower fire in London. The fire claimed 72 lives on 14 June 2017
PA
49/50 13 June 2020Protesters confront police in Whitehall near Parliament Square, during a protest by the Democratic Football Lads Alliance
PA
50/50 12 June 2020A Black Lives Matter supporter sings to crowds who marched with her in front of the National Gallery in Trafalgar Square in London. The death of an African American man, George Floyd, while in the custody of Minneapolis police has sparked protests across the United States, as well as demonstrations of solidarity in many countries around the world
Getty
1/50 31 July 2020People enjoy the sunny weather at a Bournemouth Beach
Reuters
2/50 30 July 2020An artist puts the finishing touches to a wax figure of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in the entrance line at Madame Tussaud’s in London, as the attraction prepares to reopen to the public following the easing of lockdown restrictions in England
PA
3/50 29 July 2020A member of staff stands on Ai Weiwei’s ‘History of Bombs’ during a photocall for the Chinese artist’s new work on display at the Imperial War Museum in London
PA
4/50 28 July 2020Stuart Broad celebrates after taking the wicket of West Indies batsman Kraigg Brathwaite. It was a milestone wicket in his career, reaching his 500th Test Wicket for England. They went on to beat the West Indies in Manchester and therefore win the series 2-1
Getty/ECB
5/50 27 July 2020Demonstrators protest outside the Tate Modern in London over proposed job losses in the wake of the Covid-19 lockdown. The group believe that the emergency money provided by the government to culture-based organisations should be used to retain all jobs and that any other use of the funding is unfair. The gallery on London’s South Bank, as well as the Tate Britain, Tate Liverpool and Tate St Ives, reopened today after closing in March due to lockdown measures meant to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus
Getty
6/50 26 July 2020Harry Maguire shakes hands with Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers after Manchester United beat the Foxes. The win meant they finished third in the Premier League and Leicester finished outside a Champions League place in fourth
Pool via Reuters
7/50 25 July 2020Women exercise using pool noodles during an aqua fit class at a gym in Sunbury-on-Thames after gyms and swimming pools were allowed to reopen
AFP via Getty
8/50 24 July 2020Mayor of London Sadiq Khan tries out a new Streetspace protected cycle lane in London at the launch a new online cycle training scheme
PA
9/50 23 July 2020A customer has her hair cut outside at Blade Hairdressers in Soho in London
Getty
10/50 22 July 2020Liverpool’s English midfielder Jordan Henderson lifts the Premier League trophy during the presentation following the English Premier League football match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield in Liverpool. Liverpool on Wednesday lifted the Premier League trophy at the famous Kop stand at Anfield after their final home game of the season
AFP via Getty
11/50 21 July 2020Vivienne Westwood demonstrates outside the Old Bailey in support of Julian Assange in London
Reuters
12/50 20 July 2020Comet Neowise in the skies over the Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank in Cheshire
PA
13/50 19 July 2020Mods and rockers unite on Madeira Drive, Brighton, for a demonstration to call for the reopening of the road which Brighton & Hove City Council plans to keep closed permanently
PA
14/50 18 July 2020People enjoy the sunny weather at Painshill, an 18th century landscape garden in Cobham, Surrey
PA
15/50 17 July 2020Captain Sir Thomas Moore receives his knighthood from Queen Elizabeth, during a ceremony at Windsor Castle
AP
16/50 16 July 2020Red Arrows do a flypast during the Graduation Ceremony of the Queen’s Squadron at RAF College Cranwell, Lincolnshire
The Daily Telegraph/PA
17/50 15 July 2020Jen Reid poses in front of a black resin and steel statue titled ‘A Surge of Power (Jen Reid) 2020’, which is based on her by Marc Quinn, where it has been installed on the vacant Edward Colston plinth in Bristol city centre. The original statue was pulled down and thrown into Bristol Harbour during Black Lives Matter protests
PA
18/50 14 July 2020Fields of echium and borage in full flower near the town of Thaxted in Essex
PA
19/50 13 July 2020People ride a rollercoaster in a theme park next to Southend pier. Many businesses in tourism and hospitality have been able to reopen after some lockdown measures were eased
Getty
20/50 12 July 2020West Indies’s John Campbell and Jason Holder celebrate winning the test as England’s Rory Burns and teammates look on dejected
Reuters
21/50 11 July 2020Chicldren play in the water during a cricket match between Abinger and Worplesdon & Nurpham in Abinger Hammer, Surrey
Reuters
22/50 10 July 2020People gather for the funeral of Dame Vera Lynn in Ditchling, England. During World War II she travelled to the frontlines, including Burma, entertaining British troops and boosting morale. She died on 18 June at her home in West Sussex
Getty
23/50 9 July 2020Artist Anish Kapoor looks into his sculpture ‘Sky Mirror’ at Houghton Hall, King’s Lynn, ahead of the opening of his largest UK exhibition of outdoor sculptures
PA
24/50 8 July 2020Players take a knee in support of the Black Lives Matter movement on the first day of the first Test cricket match between England and the West Indies at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton
AFP via Getty
25/50 7 July 2020A circus performer from the Association of Circus Proprietors in Whitehall, London. The association handed a petition to Downing Street to ask Prime Minister Boris Johnson to allow circuses to reopen
EPA
26/50 6 July 2020Bamburgh Castle in Northumberland, which re-opened to the public after being closed due to the coronavirus lockdown
PA
27/50 5 July 2020People visit Columbia Road Flower Market, London, as it reopens following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions across England
PA
28/50 4 July 2020A member of bar staff wearing PPE in the form of a face mask, pours drinks inside the The Goldengrove in Stratford
AFP via Getty
29/50 3 July 2020Cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands prior to the League One play-off semi final match between Portsmouth and Oxford United at Fratton Park
PA
30/50 2 July 2020A diver cleans the inside window of the seal tank at Tynemouth Aquarium in North Shields, as it prepares to open on Saturday after further coronavirus lockdown restrictions are lifted in England
PA
31/50 1 July 2020Slackliner Sandor Nagy practices on the beach in Boscombe, on the south coast of England
AFP via Getty
32/50 30 June 2020(left to right) Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, former Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill attending the funeral of senior Irish Republican and former leading IRA figure Bobby Storey in west Belfast
PA
33/50 29 June 2020Former Team GB Rhythmic Gymnastic dancer Hannah Martin during a training session at Ouse Valley Viaduct in Sussex
Reuters
34/50 28 June 2020People visit Bolton Abbey in Yorkshire, that recently reopened following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restriction
PA
35/50 27 June 2020A protest for Justice for Shukri Abdi on Trafalgar Square in London, following a raft of Black Lives Matter protests across the UK
PA
36/50 26 June 2020Police at the scene of an incident at the Park Inn Hotel in central Glasgow. Scottish police said armed officers shot dead a man after a suspected stabbing in the city centre left six others injured, including one of their colleagues. Several roads were closed and the surrounding area was cordoned off
AFP via Getty
37/50 25 June 2020A horse is washed down at Haydock Racecourse
PA
38/50 24 June 2020People enjoy the hot weather on Margate beach
Reuters
39/50 23 June 2020Tony Bennett the owner of The Devereux pub in Temple, London. Pub and hospitality bosses have cheered the Government’s proposals to allow customers through their doors again on July 4 as “a welcome relief”. PA Photo. Picture date: Tuesday June 23, 2020. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that pubs, restaurants and cinemas will be able to reopen from July 4, with “one metre-plus” distancing measures in place
PA
40/50 22 June 2020Police forensics officers carry out a search near Forbury Gardens, in Reading town centre, the scene of a multiple stabbing attack which took place at around 7pm on Saturday, leaving three people dead and another three seriously injured
PA
41/50 21 June 2020Soccer Football – Premier League – Everton v Liverpool – Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain – June 21, 2020 Children play football outside the stadium before the match, as play resumes behind closed doors following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Action Images via Reuters
42/50 20 June 2020Arsenal’s midfielder Nicolas Pepe kneels before the Premier League match against Brighton and Hove Albion at the American Express Community Stadium in southern England
AFP via Getty
43/50 19 June 2020Bianca Walkden during a training session at the National Taekwondo Centre in Manchester
PA
44/50 18 June 2020French President Emmanuel Macron gestures about social distancing alongside Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he arrives at Downing Street for a meeting. Macron also visited London to commemorate the 80th anniversary of former French president Charles de Gaulle’s appeal to French people to resist the Nazi occupation during World War II
AFP
45/50 17 June 2020Players kneel, as well as, having ‘Black Lives Matter’ in place of names on their shirts prior to the start of the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Sheffield United at Villa Park in Birmingham. The league resumed after its three-month suspension because of coronavirus
AP
46/50 16 June 2020Motakhayyel ridden by Jim Crowley, right, wins the Buckingham Palace Handicap during day one of Royal Ascot. This year, the flat racing’s biggest meeting, is behind closed doors due to the coronavirus outbreak
PA
47/50 15 June 2020Queues form at Primark at the Rushden Lakes shopping complex after the government relaxed coronavirus lockdown laws significantly, allowing zoos, safari parks and non-essential shops to open to visitors
Getty
48/50 14 June 2020A man kneels at a commemoration to mark the third anniversary of the Grenfell Tower fire in London. The fire claimed 72 lives on 14 June 2017
PA
49/50 13 June 2020Protesters confront police in Whitehall near Parliament Square, during a protest by the Democratic Football Lads Alliance
PA
50/50 12 June 2020A Black Lives Matter supporter sings to crowds who marched with her in front of the National Gallery in Trafalgar Square in London. The death of an African American man, George Floyd, while in the custody of Minneapolis police has sparked protests across the United States, as well as demonstrations of solidarity in many countries around the world
Getty
Prof Michie told The Independent that indoor venues like pubs and bars (which were allowed to reopen with social-distancing measures on 4 July) and gyms (which opened on 25 July in England) risked being “super-spreader areas”, driving repeated local flare-ups, which would hobble efforts to return to normality.
She said it was clear that the government – following advice from the Joint Biosecurity Centre in May that 1,000 new cases a day was an “acceptable incidence” of coronavirus – was not aiming for zero Covid in England.
“If they wanted zero Covid, they wouldn’t be opening gyms,” she said. “They wouldn’t be opening super-spreader areas like indoor pubs and bars, places where people are close to each other and touching each other and shouting and sweating.”
She added: “We have to look at first principles. The more people you are in contact with for the longer time and the closer in distance, and the more there is going to be shouting or singing or sweating, the more risk there is. Now that we know there is aerosol transmission, it is clear that the more ventilation there is the less risk there is.
“Drinking outdoors is less risky than inside. Open-air markets are much less risky, and shops which have a lot of people going through without much ventilation more risky.”
Prof Michie said: “The government should be less short-term and less ‘wing and a prayer’ and more focused on the lessons from other countries where they’ve got Covid down and kept it down.
“We need to be in a position where we can have confidence that children can get back to school in September and businesses can reopen with confidence. If we hadn’t lifted lockdown in June we could have been looking at zero Covid in September. If we restricted those high-risk places, then by October and November when the pressures start building on the NHS, then hopefully we can get through the winter.”
Prof Michie, professor of health psychology at University College London, said the government should be focusing more on the “isolate” strand of the “test, trace and isolate” system.
The Independent Sage has long argued that an effective system must include financial support to reduce pressures to breach the period of isolation required of those identified as close contacts of coronavirus patients.
“The problem is that the government hasn’t got a strategy to support people to isolate,” she said.
“There are a lot of people who need financial support to be able to isolate. And there are a lot of people who can’t self-isolate at home because they are living in multi-generational families or overcrowded buildings.”
She suggested England should learn from Vietnam, where coronavirus deaths were avoided altogether until the first fatality on Friday and where anyone who tests positive and their contacts are provided with accommodation to complete their isolation.
Vietnam has delivered one of the world’s most effective responses to coronavirus (AFP/Getty)
Thousands of hotel rooms lying empty could be used for those unable to isolate at home or those quarantining after arriving from abroad, she said.
“It seems expensive now, but it’s not if it means that within a matter of months we can properly reopen the economy,” she said, warning that Mr Johnson’s whack-a-mole strategy of clamping down on local flare-ups means an unpredictable cycle of relaxations and restrictions.
“There are going to be other Leicesters,” she said. “Businesses want certainty and predictability, they don’t want to be opening up to shut down again.
“What the government should be trying to do in England is what Scotland and Ireland are doing and that is going for zero Covid – eliminating any community transmission and getting a good test-and-trace system in place before the winter flu season, because that allows us to jump on any local outbreaks quickly and use quarantine at the borders to stop new seeding events.
“Otherwise it’s potentially going to be very problematic.”
Prof Medley, the professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the increased lockdown measures in areas across the northwest of England were “highly unlikely” to be the “last intervention that has to be done regionally”.
He told Today : “I think we’re in a situation whereby most people think that opening schools is a priority for the health and wellbeing of children. And so actually, closing some of the other networks, some of the other activities may well be required to enable us to open schools.”
Prof Medley said the current upsurge in coronavirus infections appeared to be among younger people but warned there was a danger it could “spill” over into other parts of the population.
“The age distribution of infections has changed, it has moved down into younger age groups and so it is likely we won’t see that increase in hospital admissions related to infection in the same way we did in March,” he said.
“But the big fear is the virus just gets out of control and we end up in a situation where there is so much virus that it inevitably spills out into all sections of the population.”
Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk