Sir David King, a former government chief scientific adviser, told The Independent that the pandemic was “taking off quite dramatically again”, highlighting an increase in transmissions in London, areas of the southeast and east.
Raising the alarm over the five-day planned reprieve over the festive period – allowing individuals to see their relatives in limited bubbles – he said it could turn out to be a “super-spreader” event with a surge of cases in the first weeks of 2021.
The warning from Sir David, who chairs the Independent Sage group, comes as the prime minister prepares to review the tiered measures in England at a session of the government’s Covid Operations Committee on Wednesday.
Last month, Mr Johnson held out the possibility that some areas could be brought down a level, as he told the country in a televised address from Downing Street: “Your tier is not your destiny. Every areas has the means of escape.”
Areas such as Greater Manchester, which has faced severe restrictions since the summer months, could be brought down to tier 2, allowing pubs and restaurants to open their doors once again to customers ahead of the festive period.
But given a rise in cases of the virus in parts of London and Kent, there is now a considerable chance millions more people will face greater curbs on freedoms.
Asked whether any areas of England should be brought down a tier next week, Sir David told The Independent: “No, absolutely not.”
“I’m just stating where it is now the worst and that’s because the rate of increase has been fastest in those areas. The northwest has come down, but it’s come down from a very high level. The northeast as well.”
On the current situation, Sir David added: “It’s very, very clear that the pandemic in England and Wales is taking off quite dramatically again right now and if you break down England it’s actually London, the southeast and the east which have now got very, very high levels.
“The highest case rates in England per head of population are now in London. Do you leave London in level two? Obviously not.”
The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) revealed on Friday the reproduction number – or R value – of virus transmissions across the UK had risen a fraction and now stands between 0.9 and 1.
However, scientists added they were not confident that R was below 1 in all English regions, particularly in London, just 24 hours after the health secretary Matt Hancock suggested there were “worrying rises” not just in the capital, but in parts of the southeast and east.
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, also told The Independent the rise in cases was “a real concern”, saying: “A rise in cases puts more pressure on our already stretched NHS and a move to tier 3 restrictions would have a terrible impact on our hospitality and cultural industries, which have already suffered so much this year.
“The reality is that unless the spread of the virus starts to slow again, we are facing further restrictions being imposed.”
While he added the rollout of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine has provided “some light at the end of the tunnel”, he went on: “It will take time before all vulnerable people are protected so we must all continue to do our bit to keep them safe.
“We have a long winter ahead and must do all we can to prevent a further surge in cases or the need for more restrictions. I urge all Londoners to keep following the rules and play their part in protecting their families, our businesses and our NHS.”
John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for northwest England and author of Blinded by Corona, said that ministers should act urgently to move London into tier 3, adding: “They should do it now, they should do it this afternoon.
“This is going to be one of the biggest shopping weekends of the year – just imagine what it’s going to be like on Oxford Street and onto the weekend.
“That’s what is going to happen this weekend and has the potential this weekend to be a massive spreader event. In enclosed spaces but then going to have something to eat when they finish shopping in a cafe or a restaurant.”
Stressing a third wave of the virus could start in London, Mr Ashton went on: “My advice is they should move London into tier 3 this afternoon.
“My advice is they should not be making any changes downwards for anywhere between now and Christmas and that really they need to start a media campaign between now and Christmas to tell people they’ve been given these freedoms but they really shouldn’t be using them.”
Professor Susan Michie, a member of Sage, also urged people to reconsider spending time with their families over the festive period. “We’re in an extremely risky situation,” she told The Independent.
“If you put that together with the government messaging about people seeing each other over five days with two other households.
“The main message in my view should be that please think about having your family celebrations and your holidays next summer. Have your Christmas celebrations next summer. This winter really focus on keeping your loved ones safe. If you want to keep people safe as possible the best way is actually not to physically see them.”
Gabriel Scally, the president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine and member of Independent Sage, said the government should rethink the Christmas reprieve and urged members of the public to be “extraordinarily cautious”.
Asked whether the country faced a third wave of Covid-19, he said: “It’s almost inevitable if we lower the level of restrictions for a period just because it covered Christmas – why would you do that?
“In terms of the virus that’s a perfect opportunity for it to spread. People travelling all over the place, people flying in, people coming home for Christmas, will they be self-isolating for two weeks? I would very much doubt it. All of these factors would indicate almost perfect conditions for the virus to spread.”
Speaking at the Downing Street Covid-19 briefing last week, professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, stressed a third wave of the virus was “not inevitable”, but added: “The way we prevent it is everybody, all of us, coming together and actually deciding we want to try and stick to the guidance that’s there.”
On the easing of restrictions between 23-27 December, professor Whitty urged members of the public to be cautious, and “accept that Christmas is a period when we can do things, that’s the reason the rules are being relaxed, but that doesn’t mean we should do things”.
He added: “People should be very, very sensible over that period and over the whole period of risk because this is a very risky period for all of us. But is definitely not inevitable that things will get substantially worse, that’s something we need to all work together on.”
