Boris Johnson must delay the completion of Brexit by 12 months to avoid “a disastrous no deal”, a report commissioned by Tony Blair says today.
The study, by a former government Brexit official, says it is now “too late” to strike an agreement with the EU, with the cliff-edge looming at the end of the December – and the talks deadlocked.
Instead, the prime minister is urged to recognise that “the responsible thing” to do – with all of Europe facing a deep recession – is to agree a standstill “implementation period” for up to one year.
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This would not require Mr Johnson to go back on his rejection of an extension to the transition period, because it would genuinely implement a permanent trade deal, agreed “in-principle”.
Anton Spisak, the report’s author, argued there is “a landing zone for a sensible compromise” between the two sides, but warned: “It is very narrow.
“It is only possible if both sides show willingness to move away from principled stances and be realistic about what can be achieved by the end of this year. The alternative is a disastrous no deal.”
The report comes as the UK and EU launch another round of talks, but with little apparent hope of the breakthrough needed this month, if a deal is to be reached in time.
The two sides remain far apart on the UK’s demands to break free of EU rules and the remit of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), while securing a tariff-free and quota-free agreement for goods.
The other flashpoints are fishing rights and future police and judicial cooperation, with a UK expectation of sharing data outside of ECJ control.
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1/66 A message projected onto the White Cliffs of Dover
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2/66 Getty
3/66 Big Ben, shows the hands at eleven o’clock at night
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4/66 Nigel Farage speaks to pro-Brexit supporters
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5/66 Pro-Brexit demonstrators celebrate on Parliament Square
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6/66 The Union flag is taken down outside the European Parliament in Brussels
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7/66 Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
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8/66 A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag in Parliament Square
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9/66 EU Council staff removed the Union Jack-British flag from the European Council in Brussels, Belgium
EPA
10/66 A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag
PA
11/66 Pedestrians pass in front of the Ministry of Defence Building on Whitehall, illuminated by red, white and blue lights in central London
AFP via Getty Images
12/66 A Brexit supporter shouts during a rally in London
AP
13/66 Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
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14/66 Pro-EU campaigners take part in a ‘Missing EU Already’ rally outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
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15/66 A large pro-EU banner is projected onto Ramsgate cliff in Kent
PA
16/66 Pro-EU supporters light candles in Smith Square in Westminster
PA
17/66 A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty Images
18/66 The five-year old Elisa Saemann, left, and her seven-year old sister Katie hold a placard during a rally by anti-Brexit protesters outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh
AP
19/66 Pro Europe supporters gather on Brexit day near the British embassy in Berlin, Germany
EPA
20/66 Anti-Brexit protester hugs a man while holding a placard
REUTERS
21/66 A decorated, old fashioned fire pump in Parliament Square
PA
22/66 Pro Brexit Elvis impersonator performs at Parliament Square
Getty Images
23/66 An anti-Brexiteers stands with his dog in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty Images
24/66 Paddy from Bournemouth wears Union colours as he sits next to an EU flag decorated bag in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty Images
25/66 A pro-EU activist plays a guitar decorated with the EU flag during a protest organised by civil rights group New Europeans outside Europe House, central London
AFP via Getty Images
26/66 People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
REUTERS
27/66 A Pro Brexit supporter has a Union Jack painted onto his face at Parliament Square
Getty Images
28/66 Men hold placards celebrating Britain leaving the EU
REUTERS
29/66 Pro Brexit supporters dance in the street draped with Union Jack flags at Parliament Square
Getty Images
30/66 An anti-Brexit demonstrator spreads his wings during a gathering near Downing Street
AP
31/66 Pro EU supporters display a banner ‘ Here to Stay, Here to Fight, Migrants In, Tories Out’ from Westminster bridge
EPA
32/66 Pro-Brexit supporters burn European Union flags at Parliament Square
Getty
33/66 A man poses for a picture on Parliament Square in a ‘Brexit Day’ t-shirt
Reuters
34/66 People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
Reuters
35/66 AFP via Getty
36/66 A man wears a pro-Brexit t-shirt
Reuters
37/66 Anti-Brexit demonstrators visit Europe House to give flowers to the staff on Brexit day
Reuters
38/66 Pro Brexit supporter wears a novelty Union Jack top hat outside the Houses of Parliament
Getty Images
39/66 Customers Scott Jones and Laura Jones at the Sawmill Bar in South Elmsall, Yorkshire, where a Brexit party is being held throughout the day
PA
40/66 AP
41/66 Getty
42/66 Getty Images
43/66 Pro-EU activists protest
Getty Images
44/66 A pro-Brexit demonstrator burns a European Union flag
AP
45/66 Pro Brexit supporters
Getty Images
46/66 Pro Brexit supporters
Getty Images
47/66 A Brexit supports holds a sign in Parliament Square
AP
48/66 A man carries an EU themed wreath
Reuters
49/66 Ann Widdecombe reacts with other members of the Brexit party as they leave en masse from the European Parliament
PA
50/66 Anti-Brexit demonstrators in Parliament Square
PA
51/66 Pro EU supporters let off flares from Westminster Bridge
Getty
52/66 British MEPs Jonathan Bullock, holding the Union Jack flag and Jake Pugh leave the European Parliament, in Brussels on the Brexit day
AFP via Getty
53/66 Newspapers and other souvenirs at a store, near Parliament Square
Reuters
54/66 Brexit supporters hold signs in Parliament Square
AP
55/66 Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty
56/66 French newspapers
PA
57/66 Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald with a Border Communities Against Brexit poster before its unveiling in Carrickcarnon on the Irish border
PA
58/66 National growers organisation British Apples & Pears has renamed a British apple to EOS, the Greek goddess of dawn, to commemorate Brexit day
AP
59/66 Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty
60/66 Britain’s departure from the European Union was set in law on January 29, amid emotional scenes, as the bloc’s parliament voted to ratify the divorce papers. After half a century of membership and three years of tense withdrawal talks, the UK will leave the EU at midnight Brussels time (23.00 GMT) on January 31
Reuters
61/66 A man poses with paintings on Parliament Square
Reuters
62/66 People sporting Union Flags gather in Parliament Square
Getty
63/66 A man walks with a St. George’s flag at Westminster bridge on Brexit day
Reuters
64/66 A British bulldog toy and other souvenirs at a souvenir store
Reuters
65/66 British pro-brexit Members of the European Parliament leave the EU Parliament for the last time
Reuters
66/66 Jonathan Bullock waves the Union Jack as he leaves the European Parliament
EPA
1/66 A message projected onto the White Cliffs of Dover
Sky News/AFP via Getty
2/66 Getty
3/66 Big Ben, shows the hands at eleven o’clock at night
AFP via Getty Images
4/66 Nigel Farage speaks to pro-Brexit supporters
PA
5/66 Pro-Brexit demonstrators celebrate on Parliament Square
REUTERS
6/66 The Union flag is taken down outside the European Parliament in Brussels
PA
7/66 Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
PA
8/66 A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag in Parliament Square
PA
9/66 EU Council staff removed the Union Jack-British flag from the European Council in Brussels, Belgium
EPA
10/66 A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag
PA
11/66 Pedestrians pass in front of the Ministry of Defence Building on Whitehall, illuminated by red, white and blue lights in central London
AFP via Getty Images
12/66 A Brexit supporter shouts during a rally in London
AP
13/66 Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
PA
14/66 Pro-EU campaigners take part in a ‘Missing EU Already’ rally outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
PA
15/66 A large pro-EU banner is projected onto Ramsgate cliff in Kent
PA
16/66 Pro-EU supporters light candles in Smith Square in Westminster
PA
17/66 A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty Images
18/66 The five-year old Elisa Saemann, left, and her seven-year old sister Katie hold a placard during a rally by anti-Brexit protesters outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh
AP
19/66 Pro Europe supporters gather on Brexit day near the British embassy in Berlin, Germany
EPA
20/66 Anti-Brexit protester hugs a man while holding a placard
REUTERS
21/66 A decorated, old fashioned fire pump in Parliament Square
PA
22/66 Pro Brexit Elvis impersonator performs at Parliament Square
Getty Images
23/66 An anti-Brexiteers stands with his dog in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty Images
24/66 Paddy from Bournemouth wears Union colours as he sits next to an EU flag decorated bag in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty Images
25/66 A pro-EU activist plays a guitar decorated with the EU flag during a protest organised by civil rights group New Europeans outside Europe House, central London
AFP via Getty Images
26/66 People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
REUTERS
27/66 A Pro Brexit supporter has a Union Jack painted onto his face at Parliament Square
Getty Images
28/66 Men hold placards celebrating Britain leaving the EU
REUTERS
29/66 Pro Brexit supporters dance in the street draped with Union Jack flags at Parliament Square
Getty Images
30/66 An anti-Brexit demonstrator spreads his wings during a gathering near Downing Street
AP
31/66 Pro EU supporters display a banner ‘ Here to Stay, Here to Fight, Migrants In, Tories Out’ from Westminster bridge
EPA
32/66 Pro-Brexit supporters burn European Union flags at Parliament Square
Getty
33/66 A man poses for a picture on Parliament Square in a ‘Brexit Day’ t-shirt
Reuters
34/66 People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
Reuters
35/66 AFP via Getty
36/66 A man wears a pro-Brexit t-shirt
Reuters
37/66 Anti-Brexit demonstrators visit Europe House to give flowers to the staff on Brexit day
Reuters
38/66 Pro Brexit supporter wears a novelty Union Jack top hat outside the Houses of Parliament
Getty Images
39/66 Customers Scott Jones and Laura Jones at the Sawmill Bar in South Elmsall, Yorkshire, where a Brexit party is being held throughout the day
PA
40/66 AP
41/66 Getty
42/66 Getty Images
43/66 Pro-EU activists protest
Getty Images
44/66 A pro-Brexit demonstrator burns a European Union flag
AP
45/66 Pro Brexit supporters
Getty Images
46/66 Pro Brexit supporters
Getty Images
47/66 A Brexit supports holds a sign in Parliament Square
AP
48/66 A man carries an EU themed wreath
Reuters
49/66 Ann Widdecombe reacts with other members of the Brexit party as they leave en masse from the European Parliament
PA
50/66 Anti-Brexit demonstrators in Parliament Square
PA
51/66 Pro EU supporters let off flares from Westminster Bridge
Getty
52/66 British MEPs Jonathan Bullock, holding the Union Jack flag and Jake Pugh leave the European Parliament, in Brussels on the Brexit day
AFP via Getty
53/66 Newspapers and other souvenirs at a store, near Parliament Square
Reuters
54/66 Brexit supporters hold signs in Parliament Square
AP
55/66 Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty
56/66 French newspapers
PA
57/66 Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald with a Border Communities Against Brexit poster before its unveiling in Carrickcarnon on the Irish border
PA
58/66 National growers organisation British Apples & Pears has renamed a British apple to EOS, the Greek goddess of dawn, to commemorate Brexit day
AP
59/66 Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
AFP via Getty
60/66 Britain’s departure from the European Union was set in law on January 29, amid emotional scenes, as the bloc’s parliament voted to ratify the divorce papers. After half a century of membership and three years of tense withdrawal talks, the UK will leave the EU at midnight Brussels time (23.00 GMT) on January 31
Reuters
61/66 A man poses with paintings on Parliament Square
Reuters
62/66 People sporting Union Flags gather in Parliament Square
Getty
63/66 A man walks with a St. George’s flag at Westminster bridge on Brexit day
Reuters
64/66 A British bulldog toy and other souvenirs at a souvenir store
Reuters
65/66 British pro-brexit Members of the European Parliament leave the EU Parliament for the last time
Reuters
66/66 Jonathan Bullock waves the Union Jack as he leaves the European Parliament
EPA
The study, published by the Tony Blair Institute, concludes agreement is possible with compromise in each area, by:
* The UK agreeing to a system of sanctions if it were breach commitments to prevent it undercutting the EU – enforced by independent domestic regulators.
* On state aid, the UK maintaining an effective domestic anti-subsidy regime, based on a set of “common objectives” agreed with the EU.
* On environment and labour standards, both sides agreeing to uphold existing protections, with the UK committing to enforcement through independent bodies.
* On governance, an “overarching institutional framework” could bridge the divide between the EU’s push for a single agreement and the UK’s wish for multiple separate deals.
Calling for the implementation period, the report states: “Such a standstill period wouldn’t be an automatic extension of the transition period, which the UK government has already rejected.
“Rather, it would be an actual implementation period – legally contained within the future treaty – allowing both sides to complete the technical negotiations, ratify the deal, and implement it, without rushing through a quick and poor agreement and risking far bigger ratification and legal problems down the line.
“Failing to agree to such a time-limited standstill period when the UK and European economies are facing a deep recession following the Covid-19 pandemic would be a grave mistake.”
Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk