Coronavirus infections are doubling every seven to eight days in England, according to a major testing programme commissioned by the government, and the R rate could be as high as 1.7.
Expressing concern over the increased prevalence of Covid-19, researchers at Imperial College London said they had found evidence of an epidemic in the community “not a result of increased testing capacity”.
The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1) study — commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care – said its latest findings for the period 22 August and 7 September with 150,000 volunteers indicated that cases doubled every 7.7 days.
It is estimated 13 people per 10,000 were infected in England in the same period, compared to 4 people per 10,000 between 24 July and 11 August – highlighting growing transmission of the virus.
The study also claims the reproduction rate of the virus now stands at 1.7 based on swab tests among volunteers. This is separate from the government’s official R rate produced weekly by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
Professor Paul Elliot, the director of the major programme at Imperial from the school of public health, said: “Our large and robust dataset clearly shows a concerning trend in coronavirus infections, where cases are growing quickly across England and are no longer concentrated in key workers.
“What we are seeing is evidence is evidence of an epidemic in the community and not a result of increased testing capacity. This is a critical time and it’s vital that the public, our health system and policy-makers are aware of the situation as we cannot afford complacency.”
DHSC said the report highlighted the need for “vigilance” from the public, adding that cases of Covid-19 infections are on the rise across all adult age groups below 65 and all areas of the country, with the highest rates in Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and North West.
The department added the findings reinforced the need for social restrictions unveiled earlier this week that will restrict social gatherings – both indoors and outdoors – to six people in the first national curbs on freedoms since the lockdown was eased in England.
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Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said: “We’ve seen all across the world how a rise in cases, initially among younger people, leads to hospitalisations and fatalities. The pandemic is not over, and everyone has a role to play to keep the virus at bay and avoid further restrictions.
“It’s so important that everyone abides by the law and socialise in groups up to six, make space between you and those outside your household, get a test and self-isolate if you develop symptoms and wash your hands regularly.
“It is vital you engage with NHS Test and Trace service if contacted to provide details of your close contacts and self-isolate if you are asked to do so.”
