Boris Johnson is facing a fight for his political life at Westminster this week as a perfect storm of issues threaten to destabilise his premiership.
The PM is set to suffer the government’s biggest rebellion yet on Tuesday over plans to bring in vaccine passports, with the list of Tory MPs threatening to vote against them nearing 70.
As well as being damaged by scandals over alleged breaches of Covid rules at parties and quizzes during lockdown, and questions over sleaze and corruption, the PM will also go into this week struggling to hold on to a safe Tory heartland seat.
Allies of the prime minister on Sunday downplayed Tory prospects of holding North Shropshire, which is holding a by-election to replace Owen Paterson. Mr Paterson quit in a row over his second job and breaches of lobbying rules.
Education secretary Nadhim Zahawi said on Sunday that by-elections are sometimes used to “send a message” to the government and sought to manage expectations by claiming the contest could see a “protest vote”.
The Liberal Democrats have positioned themselves as the main challengers in the seat and now see victory as being within their grasp – citing early canvass returns and bookies’ odds.
While a defeat would do little to practically dent Mr Johnson’s significant majority, it could not come at a worse time for the PM, whose party is increasingly reconsidering whether he is an electoral asset.
Some Tory MPs are thought to have filed votes of no confidence in the prime minister with the chair of the 1922 Committee – the mechanism used to replace the Tory leader. The letters are kept confidential until they hit a threshold, currently 56.
While the number of letters with the chair is not thought to be anywhere near that number, it was reported over the weekend that close allies of former prime minister Theresa May are considering submitting theirs in the event of a by-election defeat on Thursday.
Pressing ahead with vaccine passports on Tuesday – with the help of Labour votes – could also further antagonise those in the Conservative Party who have so far tolerated the PM.
MPs on the rebellion list compiled by the Tory-supporting Spectator magazine, which Mr Johnson once edited, range from old hands such as Iain Duncan Smith and Christopher Chope, to new “red wall” MPs including Dehenna Davison and Lee Anderson.
As of Sunday night the list numbers 68, with Tobias Ellwood, Scott Benton, Henry Smith and Matt Vickers being the latest additions.
Mr Johnson has long been able to rely on a poll lead, or at least midterm level-pegging with Labour, but recent scandals have eroded his lead.
An Opinium survey published on Sunday put Labour nine points ahead of Mr Johnson’s party – the biggest Labour lead in seven years, according to the polling firm.
