Boris Johnson news – live: Police ‘should give final analysis’ on No 10 parties as PM handed ‘one last chance’

In an opinion piece, Independent veteran and former political editor Donald Macintyre asks “why on earth” Simon Case took the job of investigating the Downing Street party allegations in the first place.

He writes: “Even if it hadn’t turned out that one of these gatherings occurred in his own private office – prompting his humiliating recusal on Friday from the official enquiry into what went on this time last year, it was clear that he was not the right man for the job.

“For a start, any investigator with a modicum of independence would have surely wanted to ask the cabinet secretary whether, as head of the Home Civil Service, he himself knew about the gatherings across government, including the ones next door in Downing Street. And if not, why not?”

You can read his thinking in full here:

Discussing whether Boris Johnson can turn his flailing premiership around in the eyes of his own MPs, the prime minister’s former boss Sir Max Hastings told LBC: “He can’t turn it around, he’s incapable of changing.

“And anybody who thinks that Boris Johnson is going to change is a fool. The question is whether anyone who succeeds him is going to be able to do a lot better.”

Asked who he would vote for in an election today, the former Daily Telegraph editor said: “I think I’d probably vote for Keir Starmer, because I think that Britain desperately needs a change of government. I think the Tories have shot their bolt and they’ve shown their own unfitness for power by making Boris Johnson prime minister.”

As the first anniversary of Brexit approaches, it seems that the arguments may soon splutter to an exhausted standstill, writes our associate editor Sean O’Grady.

The British appear to have caved in on the sensitive issue of the European Court’s jurisdiction over the operation of the single market in Northern Ireland – which is, after all, explicitly inside both the EU customs union as well as the UK internal market. In return, the EU has indicated it may go easy on the strict interpretation of the rules on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland/Ireland/the EU. Medicines, in particular, can flow freely. Quietly, the UK and Jersey have been more generous to French fisherfolk, another flashpoint.

It may actually be that Brexit is, practically speaking, “done” at last, the “interim” status of the agreement allowing both sides to reserve their formal final positions indefinitely, and preserve their pride. Like the Korean war that ended in 1953, but which is technically still on, it is a ceasefire that seems set to turn into a permanent, if sometimes volatile, truce.

Read his analysis in full with Independent Premium:

With today’s newspapers full of Tory woes in the wake of the seismic North Shropshire by-election result, here’s Boris Johnson’s public response to the poll:

Moving briefly to Covid for a moment, our political correspondent Ashley Cowburn reports that Boris Johnson’s Cabinet is to be briefed on the latest data amid concerns over the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and calls from some experts for more stringent restrictions.

My colleague Chiara Giordano is providing rolling updates on the situation here.

There has been much talk this morning of Sue Gray, the civil servant appointed to take over the inquiry into the Downing Street party allegations.

The BBC reports that she is “not exactly a typical career civil servant”, having taken a break in the late 1980s to run a pub in Northern Ireland.

“I loved it, loved it at the time, I’d never do it again,” Ms Gray previously told the broadcaster.

While in 2012 she was described as “deputy God” by then Labour MP Paul Flynn, former Tory MP and Cabinet office minister Oliver Letwin is reported to have said of Ms Gray: “It took me precisely two years before I realised who it is that runs Britain.

“Our great United Kingdom is actually entirely run by a lady called Sue Gray, the head of ethics or something in the Cabinet Office. Unless she agrees, things just don’t happen.”

In case you missed it yesterday, here is The Independent’s report following a joint investigation with Politico, which heard accusations that cabinet secretary Simon Case was present at impromptu Christmas drinks at his office and in the waiting room outside at 70 Whitehall.

Several bottles of wine and Prosecco were poured in the office, two officials present claimed, and in the waiting room of the cabinet secretary. Mr Case allegedly carried a glass through the group as he greeted staff who gathered for what one official characterised as “last-minute” drinks, including civil servants from other departments.

At the time, London was in tier 2 restrictions, meaning people were not allowed to socialise indoors and were told to work from home where possible.

A source close to the Cabinet Office said they could not rule out that drinks had been consumed at civil servants’ desks, but a spokesman initially rejected claims of an organised gathering, saying in a statement: “These allegations are categorically untrue.”

But by Friday evening, the department had admitted that a quiz event involving drinks had taken place.

After calls from Labour and the SNP, Mr Case has now “recused” himself as the head of an internal inquiry into the Downing Street Christmas party allegations.

Here’s another snippet from my colleague Colin Drury’s deep dive into the Lib Dem’s “shock and awe” campaign in North Shropshire. He reports:

Almost immediately, local activists identified that, although the by-election had been called after former Tory MP Owen Paterson resigned on the back of a lobbying scandal, focusing on such sleaze was not necessarily conducive to a good result.

“At that point, the reaction to sleaze was for people just to not want to vote at all,” said one local activist. “But when you’re chasing a 23,000-vote lead, people not turning up is no good. You need them to flip.”

Instead, the party focused relentlessly on the key local issues of terrifyingly long ambulance waiting times and poor public transport.

Again and again, they hammered home how the region had received no levelling up money, and how Brexit trade deals had repeatedly over-looked the region’s farmers. The over-riding message was simple: a century of holding this seat had meant the Tories were taking it for granted.

Writing for Independent Voices in the wake of the North Shropshire by-election result, our associate editor Sean O’Grady suggests:

“The Conservatives are faced with an effective pincer movement reminiscent of the one that destroyed them in the 1990s.

“If Labour and the Liberal Democrats are both growing in strength and confidence, and tending not to cannibalise one another’s electoral base, then the Tories are heading for oblivion.

“The 10 per cent swing to Labour in Old Bexley and Sidcup was actually the most significant psephological fact of 2021, because it is the kind of huge swing needed to put Keir Starmer in No 10, and it showed that, in the right circumstances, voters will switch directly to Labour, and in volume.”

You can read the full piece here:

Tony Blair’s former comms director Alastair Campbell has said he does not believe there is “any way” that both Boris Johnson and the police would not not have been aware of a gathering or party within Downing Street last Christmas.

“I’ve worked in Downing Street. I know how the internal and external security systems work. I know how much CCTV there is,” he told LBC.

He added: “There are very, very few rooms inside Downing Street where you could have either a gathering or a party. One of the worst things about working there was the fact it was often so difficult to find a proper meeting space outwith the state rooms and the Cabinet rooms.”