The Omicron wave could lead to up to 1,000 daily deaths, according to government modelling, The Independent understands – heightening concern among ministers that a lockdown will be needed in the coming weeks.
The estimates are a worst-case scenario modelled by members of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), and have placed Downing Street on high alert.
Ministers believe that parliament could be recalled as early as next week to debate the imposition of further restrictions, with multiple senior sources claiming that the government is coming round to the realisation that Christmas cannot go ahead as normal.
The prime minister is set to hold an emergency Cobra meeting with the devolved administrations over the weekend, where it’s expected the Sage modelling will be discussed.
The cabinet will also be presented with a Covid data briefing on Saturday, but the government is understood to be awaiting further evidence on the impact of plan B measures and the booster rollout before decisions are taken.
One insider said the figures that had been presented by Sage to No 10 on Friday afternoon were “very disturbing”. Another said they could be enough to convince ministers of the need to impose a lockdown.
However, the sources emphasised that the 1,000 daily deaths figure was likely a worst-case estimate, with a wide range of other scenarios being presented to Downing Street in respect of the possible impact of the Omicron wave.
A record 1,359 people died from Covid on 19 January this year, during the second wave. However, at this stage, the UK was in the early stages of its vaccination programme. Now, more than 80 per cent of the population have received two vaccine doses.
In leaked papers seen by the BBC, Sage also emphasised that more stringent restrictions may need to be brought in “very soon” to prevent hospitalisation admissions in England reaching 3,000 a day.
The warning comes as 93,045 new Covid infections were reported on Friday – the third day in a row that a pandemic record has been set. However, the true number of infections is thought to be far higher. Officials believe the UK could reach a million daily infections by next week.
Separate modelling from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that cases of the Omicron variant are doubling every one-and-a-half days in some of the most populous regions of England, including London, the West Midlands, the northeast and Yorkshire and the Humber.
Research from Imperial College London has meanwhile shown that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times greater than with Delta – implying that the protection past infection offers against reinfection by Omicron may be as low as 19 per cent.
“This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity, given by [either] infection or vaccination,” said Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the study’s authors. “This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.”
The research also found no evidence that the variant is less virulent than Delta – though the finding was based on a low number of hospital admissions.
Some 65 patients infected with Omicron were in English hospitals on Friday, the UKHSA said. The number of people in hospital with Covid in London has increased to 1,534, up 25.6 per cent on last week. These rising pressures have been attributed to both Omicron and the continuing spread of Delta.
Downing Street is publicly resisting calls to impose further Covid restrictions as the variant continues its rapid spread through the population, though it’s understood a number of ministers now believe harsher measures than those currently in place are required.
One senior official said there were mounting fears in No 10 that a fourth lockdown would be required to combat Omicron and prevent hospitalisations and deaths from surging. Another said it was “unlikely”, based on the emerging data, that Christmas would be normal. The Times reports that plans are now being drawn up for a two-week “circuit breaker” after 25 December.
Boris Johnson spoke with Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon on Friday and discussed “the shared challenges” presented by the variant, according to a spokesperson for the PM. Counterparts from all four devolved administrations will join this weekend’s planned Cobra meeting to “continue discussions” around Omicron, the spokesperson added.
Recent modelling from Imperial College professor Neil Ferguson, whose projections first convinced No 10 of the need to lock down in March 2020, paints a far bleaker outlook than Sage’s own analysis.
Published on Friday, it made a number of estimates on what infection rates and deaths could look like in various scenarios.
Among them is one scenario in which there could be up to 100 daily deaths per million in a high-income nation – not specified as the UK – where the majority of people over 10 were vaccinated and the majority of over-40s had received boosters.
However, Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial and one of the researchers behind the modelling, said: “I think it’s an illustration of the need to act, rather than a prediction.”
Prof Ferguson said: “We’re ahead of the rest of Europe in terms of the Omicron wave.
“I agree that time is of the essence. I think if we’re going to make additional decisions – which remains to be seen – they probably will need to be made in the next week or two to have a substantial impact.”
In separate comments on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Saturday, he said that the epidemic of Omicron was now “very obvious” in London and would become more apparent across the country in the coming week.
“The thing we’re most anxiously looking at, analysing, is what is happening to hospitalisation numbers – the key indicator in terms of how well we’re coping with this epidemic,” he said.
“We’re seeing quite a significant surge in hospitalisations in the London region, which is most ahead, but less of an indication in other regions.”
Asked whether the country was heading for “a very serious position” in hospitals in the coming weeks, he replied: “Yes, and … Chris Whitty said exactly the same in his last press conference. That is the major concern, and we’ll be more certain of … exactly what we’re heading to in the next few days, I think, with increasing amounts of data coming in.
“But it is a real concern we’ll be heading into something which has the risk of overwhelming the health service.”
