3 Questions About Tuesday’s Big Elections

Tuesday’s primaries will give us fresh data on the electoral power of Donald Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 presidential election, while offering clues as to how energized Democrats are for November.

In Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia, we’ll get more tests of Trump’s endorsement sway, with two Senate seats and three governor’s mansions up for grabs in November. As our colleague Azi Paybarah notes, Trump has taken some “noteworthy losses” thus far this year.

In Texas, which is holding runoff elections today, we’ll learn if Democrats in Laredo want to re-elect their anti-abortion congressman for a 10th term, or if they are looking for progressive change in the Rio Grande Valley. And we’ll find out if the state’s scandal-ridden attorney general can defeat the scion of a fading political dynasty.

Polls will close tonight in Georgia at 7 p.m. Eastern time, Alabama at 8 p.m., Arkansas at 8:30 p.m. and Texas between 8 and 9 p.m. There’s also a special U.S. House election in Minnesota to replace the late Representative Jim Hagedorn. You can find live results here and our live election night analysis here.

Our colleague Maya King sent you her questions about today’s contests this afternoon. Here are a few more to ponder as the results start trickling in:

If Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ candidates lose, will they accept defeat?

In Pennsylvania, lawyers for the top two finishers in the Republican primary for Senate are still duking it out over whether certain ballots should be counted or not — a fight that the former president and two national party committees are already wading into. The candidates, Mehmet Oz and David McCormick, are separated by about 1,000 votes, and a recount appears almost certain.

We don’t know if any of Georgia’s big contests will be that close. Although Gov. Brian Kemp is comfortably ahead of David Perdue in the Republican primary for governor, there has been scant polling on the secretary of state’s race. The Trump-backed candidate, Representative Jody Hice, faces Brad Raffensperger, the incumbent secretary who provoked Trump’s wrath in 2020 by refusing his demand that he “find 11,780 votes” and declare him the winner.

Perdue, an avid proponent of Trump’s baseless election claims, told reporters this week that he would have to see if there was “fraud” before committing to accept Tuesday’s results. The Hice-Raffensperger grudge match could be tight enough for a runoff, and it’s anybody’s guess what Trump will say or do in that scenario.

There’s also a controversy brewing in the attorney general’s race over John Gordon, a lawyer who is challenging Chris Carr, the Republican incumbent. Like Hice and Perdue, Gordon has insisted that Trump won Georgia in 2020, and called that year’s election a “coup d’état.”

But Gordon faces questions about his eligibility for office, fueled by the Carr campaign, which has challenged whether Gordon has been an active member of the State Bar of Georgia for the required seven years. If Gordon wins the primary, expect litigation.

Can Democrats find hope in today’s outcomes?

The mood on the left is grim, with reports that some Democrats are searching for a replacement for President Biden atop the ticket in 2024. Inflation is at a 40-year high, with the average price of gasoline creeping toward $5 a gallon. To the alarm of party leaders, youth turnout — typically a Democratic strength — has been low in recent elections.

All that aside, Democratic donors are still pouring money into party committees and candidates at a fast clip — and the marquee campaigns in Georgia should be well financed, at least.

Senator Raphael Warnock raised more than $13.5 million in the first three months of 2022, and has at least $23 million in the bank now. Those sums put him well ahead of Herschel Walker, the likely Republican nominee.

Donors gave Stacey Abrams, who is running for governor for the second time, about $11.7 million in the first quarter. Abrams ran unopposed in the primary, but her campaign has been spending most of that money as it comes in; she entered January with $7.2 million in cash on hand and exited March with just $8 million.

She’ll need far more than that if she is to knock off Kemp in November, assuming he defeats Perdue. More than $100 million was spent on the 2018 governor’s race, which Kemp won narrowly. Democratic super PACs have already spent at least $2 million to attack Kemp this campaign, and the Georgia arm of the Democratic Governors Association has donated $1 million to One Georgia, a leadership PAC set up to help Abrams’s campaign.

“Stacey will absolutely have the resources to compete” in the fall, Representative Nikema Williams, the chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Georgia, said in an interview. “But it takes money to organize voters. This isn’t about waiting until after Labor Day.”

For now, Abrams is getting some rhetorical help from the former president, who has said it would be “OK with me” if she ousted Kemp. Trump has attacked the governor relentlessly, including in a statement on Tuesday that called Kemp “very weak.” The former president added: “Most importantly, he can’t win because the MAGA base — which is enormous — will never vote for him.”

What’s the political price of being iced out by Trump?

Tonight’s primaries showcase a variety of ways Trump can show his distaste or ambivalence for Republican politicians: withdraw an endorsement, withhold one or retreat from one he has already given.

In Alabama, no candidate for Senate or governor has Trump’s backing. In the Republican Senate primary, Trump withdrew his support for Representative Mo Brooks, who had been lagging in public polling earlier this year. But Brooks has seen a surge in support in the last few weeks, and he could end up progressing to a runoff election.

In the governor’s race, Trump’s lack of endorsement carries some political weight, too. He has endorsed candidates for governor in about 16 races, including six incumbents. Noticeably absent from that list is Gov. Kay Ivey, who faces a primary challenge. She is still considered the favorite, but it’s possible she will be dragged into a runoff.

Across the political map, Trump has often embraced challengers — a tactic that has pushed multiple House Republicans who voted to impeach him into calling it quits.

But he might have bitten off more than he could chew in Georgia, where Kemp, Trump’s top target in the 2022 primaries, is expected to sail to the nomination. Meanwhile, Perdue, a former senator whom Trump recruited to run against Kemp, has struggled to gain traction.

Trump has slowly backed away from Perdue, choosing not to hold a last-minute rally in Georgia to help his candidacy and telling The Times last month that the news media should focus on his endorsements — but “not the David Perdue one.”

Kemp might not have fulfilled Trump’s stated request — overturning the 2020 presidential election result in Georgia — but he has still embraced a range of conservative priorities, signing legislation to restrict voting access, expand gun rights and prohibit mask mandates in schools.

Further down the ballot, it’s less clear whether Raffensperger, the incumbent secretary of state, will get the same benefit of the doubt from the Republican base. He and his Trump-backed challenger, Hice, could well head to a runoff that would give MAGA loyalists a new opportunity to mobilize against Raffensperger.

What to read

• Jonathan Weisman examines Senator Raphael Warnock’s re-election prospects in Alabama.

• Gov. Kay Ivey is hoping to avoid a runoff in Alabama, but a crowded field of primary challengers could force her below the state’s 50 percent threshold. Transgender issues have been at the forefront of that race, Rick Rojas reports.

• Who are the investors pumping money into Donald Trump’s fledgling social media company? Matthew Goldstein reports on a draft document containing the names of dozens of hedge funds and others behind the $1 billion private investment.

— Blake & Leah

Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.