A choice between two heavyweights

Brazilians are voting for president today in an election between two political heavyweights: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president. To help you understand the election, I spoke to Jack Nicas, The Times’s Brazil bureau chief, who lives in Rio de Janeiro.

Claire Moses: Hi Jack. This is quite an election.

Jack Nicas: It is. We reporters often say any given election is a big deal — but everyone here seems to agree that this one really is Brazil’s biggest vote in decades. Bolsonaro and Lula are perhaps the most prominent names in the modern history of Brazilian politics, and they come with a lot of baggage. They’re either loved or hated. People aren’t usually in-between on either.

Bolsonaro is a right-wing populist who has divided the country. He has fervent supporters on the right, and the left just abhors him and wants him out. Lula led Brazil during a time of tremendous growth, but then he served time in prison on corruption charges, which were later thrown out. He’s been leading in the polls.

Is it mostly political junkies who are obsessed with the election — or ordinary people, too?

It’s everyone. People are wearing their political colors visibly. If you see people wearing yellow and green, the colors of the Brazilian flag, you can probably bet that they’re Bolsonaro supporters. On the other side, people are wearing red, the color of the left-wing Workers’ Party, which is Lula’s party. People are eager to show off their political leanings and happy to debate them. The campaign is kind of in-your-face that way.

Beach towels are another example. You see vendors selling these towels with enormous prints of Lula’s or Bolsonaro’s face. Some of the vendors keep track of sales and post them on a sign — a sort of informal presidential poll.

There have been huge rallies across the country. Just down the street from me here in the Copacabana neighborhood, thousands of people gathered last month to celebrate Brazil’s 200 years of independence. In name it was a national celebration, but in practice it was a political rally for Bolsonaro. To avoid confrontations, Lula asked his supporters to attend a different rally on another day.

The fact that people wear the national colors to support Bolsonaro makes me wonder about soccer jerseys. Will people still wear the iconic jerseys of Brazil’s national team even if they don’t support Bolsonaro?

The national team has been the pride of Brazil for so long. But now its jersey is also a symbol of Bolsonaro supporters. How will Brazil cope with that during the upcoming World Cup in November, weeks after such a contentious election?

You’ve also reported on Bolsonaro’s antidemocratic moves, such as casting doubt on the country’s voting system, despite no evidence of fraud. American readers might see similarities with Donald Trump, with whom Bolsonaro has forged close ties. Is the state of democracy as big a topic in Brazil as it is in the U.S.?

It’s one of the biggest questions overhanging this election (along with a sputtering economy, rising hunger and the destruction of the Amazon). People saw what happened in the U.S. in 2020, and they know about the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. On the left, people are worried about a similar situation here because of Bolsonaro’s rhetoric. He was one of the last world leaders to recognize Joe Biden as the winner of the election.

Bolsonaro has said repeatedly that he sees three possible outcomes in this election for him: He wins, he’s put in jail or he’s dead. Those are aggressive words that worry a lot of people. From our reporting, it appears that institutions like the courts and Congress are prepared to stand up to an election challenge by Bolsonaro. And the armed forces, which had also been questioning the voting systems, now also don’t seem to have any interest in backing a coup.

The bigger threat may be that Bolsonaro’s supporters take to the streets if he doesn’t accept a loss. Many Bolsonaro supporters believe that Lula’s team and election officials are set on rigging the election. That belief doesn’t have any basis in the truth, but years of false claims by Bolsonaro have persuaded a large portion of the population.

What about Lula’s campaign strategy?

In a way, Lula’s campaign has been very Biden-esque. Even though Lula is much more of a leftist than Biden, he has also tried to build a broad coalition and appeal to the center. And like Biden, given his time as vice president, Lula has already spent eight years in the presidential offices. He’s a well-known face, and he’s trying to play it safe against an unpopular incumbent.

We should know the result, and whether there will be a runoff, around 7 p.m. Eastern tonight. Just because Lula is leading in the polls doesn’t mean something unpredictable can’t happen here.

Jack Nicas leads The Times’s coverage of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. Brazilians were fascinated by his efforts to translate the Portuguese words “tchutchuca” and “imbrochável” in his election coverage — two slightly vulgar words that each had their campaign moments.

For more

• Brazil’s Supreme Court has expanded its power to counter Bolsonaro’s antidemocratic stances. But some experts are worried the court itself has become repressive.

• If Bolsonaro loses and his supporters react violently, how will police respond? The Times’s Amanda Taub looks at the possibilities.

• Lula is trying to complete a stunning political comeback.

• You can follow election results here.

NEWS

Hurricane Ian

• Hurricane Ian’s death toll in Florida climbed, with at least 35 people killed.

• Officials in Florida’s hardest-hit county delayed telling people to flee. Now they’re encountering mass death.

Other Big Stories

• Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a key city in eastern Ukraine, one day after Vladimir Putin illegally declared control of the region.

• At least 170 people died after a soccer match in Indonesia as the police tried to quell a riot with tear gas. Many people were trampled.

• Venezuela released seven Americans after Biden agreed to grant clemency to two nephews of the country’s first lady.

• Congress members of both parties are experiencing a surge in threats. In the months since the Jan. 6 attack, they have faced stalking, vandalism and assaults.

• China’s Covid rules are becoming more entrenched, dictating the patterns of daily life.

• The recent flooding in Pakistan has plunged farmers further into debt with their landlords.

• “Saturday Night Live” kicked off its new season with a cold open that was also a commentary on the expectations it faces this year.

FROM OPINION

• Want less inflation? Try a consumption tax on the rich, Ezra Klein says.

• Putin is less a guilt-ridden Raskolnikov than a vengeful Medea, Maureen Dowd writes.

• When paying for an elite private school gets you into an elite college, how dare we call American education a meritocracy? Sophie Callcott asks.

• Liz Truss, Britain’s new prime minister, is floundering because she has nostalgic answers to modern problems, Ross Douthat argues.

• “It is the role of faith to counter evil.” Pinchas Goldschmidt, Moscow’s former chief rabbi, on his first Yom Kippur in exile.

The Sunday question: Could Iran’s protests bring down its government?

Outrage over a woman’s death in police custody, an economic crisis and Iran’s out-of-touch clerical leaders have created a serious legitimacy crisis, Sanam Vakil writes in Foreign Affairs. The Guardian’s Jason Burke is doubtful; dissent appears less widespread than in 1979, when Iranians last ousted their government, and the regime remains strong enough to crush it.

MORNING READS

Musing on mortality: A feminist French rabbi is drawing atheists, Christians and Jews to her talks on death.

Well: Can supplements replace cranberry juice as a U.T.I. treatment? Experts aren’t sure.

Nuclear fashion: Climate consciousness and abortion activism are on the runway at Paris Fashion Week.

Sunday routine: The immigrant rights leader Murad Awawdeh greets arrivals from Texas at the Port Authority or he’s with his family.

Advice from Wirecutter: Pay attention to iPhone permissions.

A Times classic: Facial exercises to make you look younger.

BOOKS

Romance novels: Finding wonderful books that bring to mind old favorites is one of the genre’s greatest pleasures.

By the Book: The Swedish novelist Fredrik Backman has learned to read while distracted.

Times best sellers: “Dreamland,” by Nicholas Sparks, is a No. 1 debut on the hardcover fiction best-seller list, which also includes the latest from Richard Osman, Elizabeth Strout and Andrew Sean Greer. See all our lists.

THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE

On the cover: Whoopi Goldberg refuses to hold anything back.

“Stolen babies”: Thousands of Spanish children were taken from hospitals and sold to wealthy Catholic families. This is Ana Belén Pintado’s story.

Recommendation: The end of life is often invisible. There’s another way.

Eat: These little coconut cakes are fluffy and perfect for sharing.

Read the full issue.

THE WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch For

• The Nobel Prizes will be announced this week, including literature on Thursday and peace on Friday.

• Canada’s Quebec province will hold elections tomorrow. François Legault, the incumbent premier, is expected to win by appealing to nationalism — without advocating for independence.

• The 2022 Miss USA Pageant is tomorrow. It will honor Cheslie Kryst, the 2019 winner who died in January.

• The Australian tennis player Nick Kyrgios is set to face a charge of assaulting a former girlfriend.

• The government will release new monthly jobs numbers on Friday.

What to Cook This Week

Fall seems to have arrived in New York, and Emily Weinstein has ideas for autumnal dishes this week: “I made a crumble after I went apple picking and brought home a ridiculous (some might say crazy) number of apples, and I simmered kabocha squash with scallions, too.” You can also use squash for soup; this recipe is amazing.

NOW TIME TO PLAY

Here’s a clue from the Sunday crossword:

64 Across: Candy bar whose name is an exclamation

Take the news quiz to see how well you followed the week’s headlines.

Here’s today’s Spelling Bee. Here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.

Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.

Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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