A Poll Reversal

In the last days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, the polls have increasingly reached a consensus on the state of the race: Republicans lead.

Most pollsters over the past few weeks have found Republicans opening a modest but consistent lead when they ask voters whether they’ll back Democrats or Republicans for Congress.

The results are a reversal from polls conducted just over a month ago, when Democrats seemed to have the advantage.

If the recent polls are right — and they may not be — Republicans will almost certainly take the House. The big question on election night would be whether and where individual Democratic candidates could withstand a hostile political environment. Control of the Senate would depend on it.

How Republicans got here

In one sense, the new Republican strength was foreseeable. The president’s party almost always gets pummeled in midterm elections, especially when his approval rating is as low as President Biden’s, which is hovering just over 40 percent. In the era of modern polling dating back nearly a century, no precedent exists for the president’s party to hold its own in the House when his approval rating is well beneath 50 percent.

But for Democrats, the usual midterm losses for the party in the White House — or even a better than usual outcome — may still be something of a disappointment. Democrats seemed to be in a fairly strong position as recently as a few weeks ago. They gained support over the summer after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and amid rising concerns about the state of American democracy and gun violence. Some news also helped the party politically: falling gas prices and Biden’s surprising legislative successes.

But the Democratic summer surge quickly dissipated. The focus on guns, abortion and threats to democracy has given way to renewed inflation concerns, a falling stock market and a campaign debate that’s often focused on other issues, like crime. In just a few weeks, an even larger Republican lead has replaced the Democratic edge. The once-clear Democratic advantage in the critical Senate races has evaporated, leaving control of the Senate a tossup.

In a typical midterm election, Republicans might be expected to sweep many of the closest races. They might even make breakthroughs in a handful of reliably Democratic districts or states. There are signs this year of the latter: Democrats have raced to defend solidly blue seats in New York, Rhode Island, California and Oregon.

The Democrats’ outlook

Democrats still show important signs of resilience. The party appears to be highly competitive in the key Senate races, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. In these states, Republicans have nominated relatively weak candidates who might underperform, even in a favorable national political environment. And there are other bright spots for Democratic candidates in states like Michigan and Kansas, where abortion remains much on the minds of voters.

Yet history and Biden’s low approval ratings might ultimately blot out even these bits of Democratic optimism. The Democrats’ hopes might also be illusory — the product of idiosyncratic polling, which has often erred in many of these same battleground states.

But it is also possible that Democrats can still draw on some of their summer strengths in these states: A Republican candidate who’s an election denier or an abortion initiative on the ballot might turn out enough Democratic voters to keep the party’s candidates competitive or even to propel them to a win.

With just four days until polling places close, there is not much time for surveys to answer these questions. As always, it will be the voters who have the final say.

More midterm news

• Billionaires have helped finance the most expensive midterms ever: Total spending is projected to reach $16.7 billion. Follow our updates.

• More than 32 million Americans have voted early.

• Voters are increasingly worried about public safety, an issue Republicans are elevating as crime trends are mixed.

• Progressive ballot measures have expanded Medicaid in six states. The next test? South Dakota.

• Donald Trump teased his plans to run for president in 2024 at an event in Iowa.

• Republicans in Wisconsin are on the verge of total, veto-proof power.

• Have you been following the election closely? Test your knowledge in a special midterms edition of our weekly News Quiz.

THE LATEST NEWS

Politics

• Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi’s husband, was discharged from the hospital six days after suffering a fractured skull in an attack in their home.

• Trump sued to stop New York’s civil case against his business practices. His legal advisers warned against doing so.

• The Cherokee Nation is calling on the U.S. to honor an 1835 treaty promising the tribe a nonvoting House seat.

• Realistic-looking fabricated videos and images, known as deepfakes, are warping political reality on TikTok.

Antisemitism

• The Brooklyn Nets suspended star guard Kyrie Irving indefinitely after he declined to say he had no antisemitic views, calling him “unfit to be associated” with the team.

• The F.B.I. warned synagogues in New Jersey of a broad threat.

• Reported instances of antisemitism are escalating in the U.S., unsettling American Jews.

International

• Benjamin Netanyahu is about to return to power as Israel’s prime minister, despite unresolved corruption charges against him.

• Imran Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan, was wounded when at least one gunman opened fire on his convoy.

• China is burning more coal. The country’s greenhouse gas emissions rose last year at the fastest pace in a decade.

• Oil production in Gabon — known as Africa’s Eden — won’t last forever. Officials are turning to the nation’s rainforest for revenue, despite also promising to preserve it.

• “Now we’re going to be completely oppressed”: Russia is set to pass laws that would crack down even more on L.G.B.T.Q. freedom.

Other Big Stories

• Elon Musk will begin mass layoffs at Twitter today, most likely losing half of the company’s 7,500 employees in an attempt to cut costs.

• Older, white and wealthy home buyers are pushing younger people with moderate or middle incomes out of the U.S. housing market.

• New Covid variants are circulating. Here’s what to know.

Opinions

America’s vicious partisanship is roping in even Christians who have historically eschewed politics, Bonnie Kristian writes.

Biden gave a speech that sought to invoke a patriotic consensus about American democracy that no longer exists, Michelle Goldberg says.

By allying with extremists, Netanyahu has gone where no Israeli leader has gone before, Thomas Friedman writes.

States have the legal tools to clamp down on extremist groups fomenting political violence, The Times’s editorial board argues.

MORNING READS

J. Law: What does Jennifer Lawrence want? To hang out like everyone else.

Have five minutes? Fall in love with the free jazz pioneer Ornette Coleman.

Modern Love: A post-divorce choice between OkCupid or Petfinder.

A morning listen: “Still Processing” is back. The hosts discuss Jordan Peele’s latest film.

Advice from Wirecutter: This home 3D printer can make almost anything.

Lives Lived: Hannah Pick-Goslar befriended Anne Frank in kindergarten in 1933 and appeared in her diary. They last spoke 12 years later through a barbed-wire fence at a concentration camp. Pick-Goslar died at 93.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Astros one win away: Houston leads the World Series 3-2 after a gritty win in Philadelphia. The Phillies are repeating past mistakes, The Times’s Tyler Kepner writes. Game 6 is Saturday in Houston.

Still unbeaten: The Philadelphia Eagles maintained their pristine record with a 29-17 win last night in Houston in a game that solidified their status as the N.F.L.’s best. The Eagles are 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Mom’s Thanksgiving vs. A.I.’s

Artificial intelligence can create art, play “Jeopardy!” and make scientific breakthroughs. How good is it in the kitchen? Priya Krishna, a Times food reporter, set out to find the answer by giving an A.I. system the ultimate food challenge: creating a Thanksgiving menu.

Priya told the system, called GPT-3, about her family background and the types of flavors she likes. It produced recipes both plausible and intriguing: pumpkin spice chaat, green beans with miso and sesame seeds, and roasted turkey with a soy-ginger glaze.

In a video, Priya cooks the computers’ recipes and asks Times cooking columnists to judge.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook

In these vegetarian sliders, hot sauce-infused butter imparts tofu with a kick.

Where to Eat

Claud, a French-influenced restaurant, is one of the most impressive places in the East Village in years, Pete Wells writes.

What to Watch

“Dangerous Liaisons,” a decadent new drama on Starz, is about younger versions of the Marquise de Merteuil and the Vicomte de Valmont.

Late Night

The hosts joked about Herschel Walker’s résumé.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was unpopular. Here is today’s puzzle.

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Jewels (four letters).

And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. The Times will interview Boris Johnson, Britain’s former prime minister, at the global climate summit on Monday. R.S.V.P. to watch.

Here’s today’s front page.

“The Daily” is about abortion.

Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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