N.Y. Republican Quandary: How to Veer Right and Still Win in November

POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. — For most of his early political career, Lee M. Zeldin was a classic Long Island moderate Republican: As an Army officer elected to the State Senate, he worked with Democrats to champion causes like tax cuts, veterans’ benefits and even beer, protecting breweries in his district and elsewhere.

That centrism began to fade after Mr. Zeldin was elected to Congress in 2014 and was cast off completely after the election of President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Zeldin was one of the earlier House Republicans to embrace Mr. Trump, a fealty that culminated in his vote to overturn the results of the 2020 election in key swing states.

Now, Mr. Zeldin may be forced to reconcile his past and present stances as he pursues a run for governor this year, a tricky balancing act that will require him to win a surprisingly fractious four-way Republican primary on Tuesday and then try to appeal to a far more moderate general electorate.

Mr. Zeldin has largely stayed in the right lane, voicing allegiance to an array of conservative touchstones, including support for the Second Amendment, rejection of abortion and a devotion to Mr. Trump.

Even so, he on some occasions has seemed mindful of the general election audience, a nuance that has emerged in subtle ways in debates, interviews and on the stump.

Mr. Zeldin, for example, celebrated the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade on Friday, calling it “a victory for life, for family, for the constitution, and for federalism” and adding that “New York clearly needs to do a much better job to promote, respect and defend life.” But last month, before the decision, he had also been keen to stress that “nothing changes” for states like New York, which have enshrined abortion rights.

On the Second Amendment, Mr. Zeldin cheered the Supreme Court’s decision on Thursday to strike down a century-old law that placed strict limits on the carrying of handguns, calling it “a historic, proper and necessary victory.” He also says he would like to overturn a 2013 state law — the Safe Act — that tightened state guns laws.

But after the recent massacre at a Buffalo supermarket, Mr. Zeldin walked back a call for the abolition of so-called red-flag laws, which prohibit gun ownership for those deemed a threat to themselves and others. He clarified that he simply felt such laws shouldn’t apply to “law-abiding New Yorkers.”

And even as Mr. Zeldin has attacked rivals for being “never-Trumpers” and Republicans in name only, he has stopped short of saying the 2020 election was stolen and didn’t exactly endorse a 2024 Trump campaign during the candidates’ first debate.

“If President Trump wants to run,” Mr. Zeldin said, “he should run.”

On Tuesday, too, when asked during the candidates’ final debate — hosted by Newsmax, the conservative cable network — if he was politically closer to Mr. Trump or former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr. Zeldin demurred, saying he was his “own man” — and drew a mixed reaction from a live audience in Rochester.

Indeed, the challenge facing Mr. Zeldin, the putative front-runner endorsed by the state Republican Party, is one facing all four party candidates ahead of the primary on Tuesday: How to appeal to primary voters, hungry for red-meat issues like crime, immigration and social welfare, while not alienating more moderate swing voters who are dissatisfied with President Biden or Gov. Kathy Hochul, the incumbent Democrat favored to win her primary on Tuesday.

Such a balancing act, political consultants from both parties say, is central to achieving one of the most daunting tasks in American politics: winning a statewide race in New York as a Republican.

No Republican has done so since George E. Pataki won a third term as governor in 2002. And in the decades since, the task has become even more difficult as the state’s demographics have steadily drifted left while New York Republicans — once known for centrists like former governor Nelson A. Rockefeller — have banked hard to the right.

“Right now, you have a race to the absolute bottom,” said Jefrey Pollock, the veteran pollster who is working with Ms. Hochul, referring to what he described as the Republicans’ pandering to right-wing voters. “So what you get is Republican candidates who are going to be incredibly out of step with general election voters on things that are going to be in the news, like guns and abortion and Donald Trump.”

Mr. Zeldin’s victory in the primary is far from assured, with a spirited challenge coming from three rivals: Rob Astorino, the former Westchester County executive; Harry Wilson, a corporate turnaround specialist; and Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

Some voter surveys have shown Mr. Giuliani running a close second, or even surpassing, Mr. Zeldin in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Even if Mr. Zeldin is the winner on Tuesday, it will be an uphill climb to the governor’s mansion in Albany. In pure statistical terms, Republicans are a third party in New York, trailing Democrats by more than three million registered members, and also outnumbered by nonaffiliated voters. And the calculus for Republicans winning in a statewide election generally means winning at least 30 percent of the vote in New York City, which is heavily Democratic.

Still, with voters across the country rejecting Democratic leadership, and concern about crime and cost of living spiking in New York, Republicans believe this year could be an exception to that terrible track record. Even Democrats acknowledge that it could be a good year for Republicans, who lost their last foothold of power in Albany — control of the State Senate — in the 2018 elections.

Mr. Zeldin insists that his proposed policies will remain constant even after the primary, emphasizing that he believes New Yorkers are most focused on kitchen-table issues like the economy, taxes and public safety.

“These are issues that resonate with Republicans, these are issues that also resonate with independents, and they’re resonating with Democrats as well,” he said in an interview, adding that while “the conversation may be different in a general election,” on issues like guns, “My positions won’t change. My positions don’t change.”

Like other Republicans, he’s also tried to emphasize less polarizing policies — mocking “the geniuses in Albany” and laying out ideas like stopping out-migration from the state, as well as reducing crime and government mandates.

“We rule the government,” he said. “They don’t rule us.”

Likewise, Mr. Zeldin’s Republican primary opponents seem aware of the calculations Republicans must make with voters.

Mr. Wilson, a wealthy Greek American from the well-to-do enclave of Scarsdale, N.Y., is probably the campaign’s closest approximation of a moderate, having voiced support for abortion rights and advised the Treasury Department under President Barack Obama. He says he refused to vote for Mr. Trump in 2020 and wrote in Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador under Mr. Trump.

Mr. Wilson, who has plowed more than $10 million of his own money into his campaign, has also shunned litmus tests on social issues, saying he’s running on an economic platform. He prefers to speak in wonky bullet points about overhauling state government and producing more housing units.

“What I’m trying to do is lay out very clearly how different I am than any other candidate,” said Mr. Wilson said in a recent interview. “You used the term moderate. I think about it as someone who is not a politician — an outsider who has spent his entire career fixing failed organizations. And we need to hire a governor who has the capability to fix the most failed state government in the country.”

Mr. Astorino, the former Westchester County executive, knows about the challenges of winning statewide in New York; he was the party’s unsuccessful nominee for governor in 2014. Still, he’s touted something Republicans have often pushed aside in primary contests in recent years: electability. He argues that Mr. Zeldin’s trail of votes in Albany and Washington has made him toxic to many New Yorkers.

“I’m the most electable Republican in this race,” he said, noting his record winning Democratic crossover votes in “overwhelmingly blue Westchester County.”

In an interview, Mr. Astorino played down the impact of Mr. Trump’s shadow over the race, insisting that voters would focus more on real-life concerns than on whom Mr. Trump might favor.

“There’s the quality of life, the chaos, the dangerousness, the radicalism that’s taken hold because of the progressives right now,” he said. “All of that is subplot in this, but the basics are the economy, taxes, jobs and crime.”

In the first debate, Mr. Astorino also went further than any other candidate in tying Mr. Trump to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, calling it “a horrible day in our nation’s history,” and saying that Mr. Trump “bears some responsibility.”

Mr. Giuliani seems to be the most willing to embrace far-right talking points, seemingly hoping to energize the base by leaning on his father and emphasizing divisive culture-war topics. He railed against “the leftist media,” consideration for transgender people and critical race theory.

Mr. Giuliani, who worked in the Trump administration for four years, has also actively sought Mr. Trump’s backing and unequivocally voiced his belief in the baseless conspiracy theory that Mr. Trump had won the 2020 election, the outcome of which he called “one of the greatest crimes in American history.”

But in terms of political accomplishments and experience, Mr. Zeldin, who has represented the eastern part of Long Island since 2015, seems to have the upper hand.

Trained as a lawyer, Mr. Zeldin passed the bar at the age of 23 and served in the U.S. Army as an intelligence officer and prosecutor, as well as being deployed to Iraq with the 82d Airborne in 2006. He still serves in the Army Reserve; married with two twin daughters, Mr. Zeldin likes to joke that he is “the fourth highest- ranking person” in his family.

On a recent Thursday night, in front of a well-dressed coterie of Republican faithful at an elegant event space in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., Mr. Zeldin noted all the reasons he had for not running for governor, including the fact that he could have easily won another term and perhaps had a leadership position in a potential Republican majority in the House.

But he said he was called to run to “save our state,” arguing — in a catch phrase from his campaign — that “losing is not an option.”

“I’m not in this race to win a primary,” Mr. Zeldin said, stirring the audience to its feet. “I’m in this race to win in November.”