The role remote education played.
Months into the current school year, most American students are still trying to make up for what they lost during the pandemic. This fall, we saw some of the clearest evidence yet of the extent to which the pandemic — and the school closures that came with it — hurt children’s education.
Nine-year-olds lost the equivalent of two decades of progress in math and reading, according to an authoritative national test. Fourth and eighth graders also recorded sweeping declines, particularly in math, with eighth-grade scores falling in 49 of 50 states.
The data comes from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, a rigorous exam that evaluates thousands of children across the country and is overseen by a research arm of the U.S. Education Department.
Today, I’ll break down the factors that drove these declines and explain an important trend that helps show why these results are so sobering.
Remote learning’s role
First, to address one of the most common questions I hear as an education reporter: To what degree is remote learning responsible for these setbacks? The answer is both simple and complicated.
At a basic level, there is good evidence and a growing consensus that extended remote learning harmed students. Some state test results from 2021 help show the damage. In Ohio, researchers found that districts that stayed fully remote during the 2020-21 school year experienced declines up to three times greater than those of districts that mostly taught students in person.
More recently, the national test results capture both the initial academic declines and any recovery, and they offer some nuance. While there was a notable correlation between remote learning and declines in fourth-grade math, for example, there was little to no correlation in reading. Why the discrepancy? One explanation is that reading skills tend to be more influenced by parents and what happens at home, whereas math is more directly affected by what is taught in school.
So remote learning does not explain the whole story. What else does? In a sophisticated analysis of thousands of public school districts in 29 states, researchers at Harvard and Stanford Universities found that poverty played an even bigger role in academic declines during the pandemic.
“The poverty rate is very predictive of how much you lost,” Sean Reardon, an education professor at Stanford who helped lead the analysis, told me.
Comparing two California school districts, one wealthier and the other poorer, illustrates this point. Cupertino Union, a Silicon Valley school district where about 6 percent of students qualify for free or reduced lunch (a marker that researchers use to estimate poverty), spent nearly half of the 2020-21 school year remote. So did Merced City in the Central Valley, where nearly 80 percent of students are eligible for free or reduced lunch, according to the Harvard-Stanford analysis.
Yet despite spending roughly the same amount of time attending classes remotely, students in the wealthier Cupertino district actually gained ground in math, while students in poorer Merced City fell behind.
High vs. low performers
While the overall declines in student achievement were stark, the averages mask even deeper divergences between student groups. For example, Black and Hispanic students, who had started out behind white and Asian students in fourth-grade math, lost more ground than those groups during the pandemic.
Notably, the gap is also growing between the country’s highest-achieving students and low-performing students who struggle the most.
That gap — driven by declines among lower performers — was most clear for younger students and in reading. (Middle-school math declines were more significant across the board.)
In fourth grade, the average reading score on the national exam fell three points. But results for students in the top 90th percentile did not fall at all, while those for students in the bottom 10th percentile plunged six points, double the overall average.
In other words: The students who had the least ground to lose lost the most.
There may be a twofold explanation. Recent research from NWEA, a nonprofit academic assessment organization, found that students at the bottom of their classes both experienced sharper setbacks at the start of the pandemic and showed less improvement last school year.
I am sometimes asked: If the pandemic affected all students, how much does it matter? Isn’t everyone behind?
What the latest data affirmed is that while the pandemic affected all students, it did not affect all students equally. That was true with remote learning, and it is playing out now in recovery. The students who had the greatest needs coming into the pandemic have the steepest challenge — and will need the most help — in the future.
Related: On “The Daily,” I explained what schools can do to help students recover.
THE LATEST NEWS
Protests in China
China has witnessed its most defiant eruption of public anger in years, after a deadly apartment fire last week set off nationwide protests against Covid lockdowns.
Anger with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, helps explain how the demonstrations gained momentum.
Chinese spam flooded Twitter and obscured news about the protests, The Washington Post reported.
Politics
A strong midterm performance eased some Democrats’ fears about President Biden’s potential re-election bid.
Attorney General Merrick Garland is recalibrating his political approach as the Justice Department investigates Donald Trump.
Biden’s sweeping marijuana pardons do not apply to many people with minor convictions.
Other Big Stories
Gunmen in explosive vests stormed a hotel in Somalia, trapping government officials in an ongoing siege. The militant group Al Shabab claimed responsibility.
A small plane crashed into power lines in Maryland, injuring two people and knocking out electricity to roughly 117,000 customers.
Many developed countries have reduced roadway deaths, but the U.S. has failed to keep up.
“I simply wanted to save the family I found”: Another patron helped stop the shooter during the attack on an L.G.B.T.Q. nightclub in Colorado Springs.
Millions of people in Houston were told to boil drinking water and schools were closed after a power failure at a purification plant.
Opinions
Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss gun violence.
Just ignore Donald Trump, Patti Davis, a daughter of Ronald Reagan, writes.
To protect patients, give older doctors competency assessments, Dr. Sandeep Jauhar writes.
MORNING READS
Green transition: Oil and gas workers are finding jobs on Scotland’s wind farms.
Vows: They met in an elevator and danced their way to a “beautifully intoxicating” romance.
Metropolitan diary: The upside of a forgotten phone.
Quiz time: Take our latest news quiz, and share your score (the average was 9.4).
Advice from Wirecutter: The best advent calendars.
Lives Lived: Irene Cara was an Oscar-winning singer who performed the title tracks for “Flashdance” and “Fame.” She died at 63.
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
Eagles beat Packers: Philadelphia maintained the N.F.L.’s best record with a 40-33 win over the Packers late last night. Aaron Rodgers left the game with a rib injury.
No. 1 goes down: The Alabama men’s basketball team upset top-ranked North Carolina in four overtimes.
WORLD CUP
Shock: Morocco upset Belgium, leading to riots in Brussels. And Canada is out after losing to Croatia. Manager John Herdman’s ill-fated bravado before the match proved disastrous.
Powers draw even: Germany kept its tournament hopes alive with a 1-1 tie against Spain.
Taking stock: Do all these upsets make for a more exciting tournament?
Protest battle: Iran called for the U.S. to be expelled from the competition over a social media post featuring an altered flag.
Photo collage: A V.I.P. entrance at Qatar’s showpiece stadium replaced a mural celebrating migrant workers.
Today: Cameroon is playing Serbia, and Brazil will face Switzerland this afternoon — though without its star, Neymar, who is injured. Here are the latest scores.
ARTS AND IDEAS
The modern wine bar
They’re popping up all over New York City. But what is a wine bar, anyway?
American wine bars used to be a novelty — a space for customers to learn about the intricacies of a bottle’s taste and production. They have evolved over the last few decades, finding success with a new formula: simple food, casual atmosphere, inexpensive wine by the glass.
This relaxed approach sets wine bars apart from restaurants. “Good wine bars are informal neighborhood gathering places rather than destinations, with occasional exceptions,” our critic Eric Asimov writes. Some of his favorite wine bars introduce new trends, like natural and orange wines.
For more: Eric picks New York’s best wine bars.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to Cook
Cacio e Pepe is simple but incredible.
What to see
Puerto Rican artists at the Whitney.
What to Watch
An “Unsolved Mysteries” reboot from an executive producer of “Stranger Things,” and six other shows to binge.
Now Time to Play
The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was workload. Here is today’s puzzle.
Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Moon goddess (four letters).
And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.
P.S. Amanda Choy and Mantai Chow are joining Times Cooking to produce documentary-style videos.
Here’s today’s front page.
“The Daily” is about the World Cup.
Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.
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