Republicans Target a Top House Democrat as Winds Shift to the Right

BRIARCLIFF MANOR, N.Y. — Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York was campaigning at a senior center recently, trying to give a largely Democratic audience reason for hope. But Pat Campbell, 84, had little patience for optimism.

“We’re really worried about the Democratic Party,” Ms. Campbell, a Maloney supporter, interjected as the congressman mentioned the party’s legislative accomplishments.

As he alluded to enthusiasm for defending abortion rights earlier this year, she insisted, “That’s not happening now!”

And after the Saturday event, Ms. Campbell, a Democrat, fretted in an interview, “I’m afraid there are not enough of us.”

As Democrats nationwide grow increasingly anxious about their midterm prospects, Mr. Maloney, the leader of the party’s House campaign arm, is racing to protect the current majority, helping vulnerable Democrats as they try to hang on in tough races across the country.

But now he is himself one of those Democrats. The congressman is suddenly at real risk of losing his race for a seat in an area of the Hudson Valley that President Biden won by 10 percentage points. His predicament in New York reflects Democrats’ broader struggles in the face of Americans’ frustrations about the cost of living, Mr. Biden’s weak approval ratings and, sometimes, concerns about public safety.

Republicans are throwing late money into their effort to defeat the powerful party leader, and the Democratic campaign committee Mr. Maloney leads is now spending cash to save him, a move that may rankle some Democrats as the party confronts difficult spending decisions across the map.

“Sean Patrick Maloney is the highest-ranking Democrat in a competitive race,” said Assemblyman Mike Lawler, Mr. Maloney’s Republican opponent in the 17th District. A Republican victory, he said, would send a national message that “one-party rule does not work.”

Party leaders are often enticing targets for their opposition, and they are typically difficult to defeat. Still, Republicans insist that their interest in the seat is not simply a symbolic attempt to make Democrats sweat, but rather a reflection of the worsening political climate facing Mr. Maloney and his party, especially in New York.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with the House Republican leadership, is plunging $6 million into the race, including a $4 million investment announced last week, with ads highlighting a 2018 video in which Mr. Maloney calls ending cash bail a “top priority.” The Republican group’s polling early this month showed Mr. Lawler with a narrow lead within the margin of error, 47 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

The House Republican campaign committee is also spending on the race. And Democrats acknowledge it is highly competitive.

“I’m concerned about how motivated the Democrats are to vote,” said David Carlucci, a Democratic former state senator who represented the region.

He said the politics of crime and bail reform — complex issues that have dominated the midterm landscape in New York — were a challenge for the Democratic brand. “It really moves the needle here,” he said.

The race for the newly configured district took shape after a messy redistricting process that split Mr. Maloney’s current seat in two. Instead of running for a version of his current seat, Mr. Maloney decided to run in a slightly more Democratic-leaning district now represented by Mondaire Jones. (Mr. Jones then ran in a New York City primary and lost. Some Democrats sharply criticized Mr. Maloney’s handling of the process.)

The district Mr. Maloney is now running for includes his home, but he must also introduce himself across significant new territory, even as he travels to raise money for fellow Democrats. Republicans have delighted in highlighting images from a fund-raising trip he took to Europe early this month.

“Sean is new,” said Darren Rigger, a Democratic State Committee member from Westchester County. “People are getting to know him.”

Mr. Maloney said in an interview that he had no regrets about where he chose to run. While redistricting was “disruptive,” he said, “it’s an honor to represent the community where I live.” He emphasized work he had done for the region.

Mr. Maloney’s team notes that he has broad support from key players in the area, including labor, and that he has had a cash advantage over Mr. Lawler. He also had a vigorous campaign presence this summer while navigating a primary challenge from State Senator Alessandra Biaggi, a prominent liberal Democrat.

“I just beat the ‘defund’ candidate,” he said as he highlighted his support for police departments, pushing back on Republican efforts to paint him as anti-law enforcement. In advertising, his campaign overtly embraces a “tough-on-crime” message.

Mr. Maloney casts himself as a “mainstream guy” who emphasizes support for abortion rights. He has also denounced Mr. Lawler over a Congressional Leadership Fund mailer about crime that has been criticized as perpetuating racist stereotypes, while labeling his opponent a far-right extremist (“MAGA Mike”).

“If you put $7 million behind a ham-and-cheese sandwich,” Mr. Maloney said, “that sandwich would be competitive in this district.”

Mr. Lawler, who rejects the extremist label, faces steep challenges, especially over abortion rights. But he has credible political chops: He defeated a seven-term Democrat for an Assembly seat in 2020.

The infusion of Republican cash in the race — and the Democratic spending help in response — leaves Mr. Maloney in an uncomfortable position.

“If he wins and survives, they’ll say, ‘Hey, you spent money on you and you let all these other people lose,’” said former Representative Steve Stivers, who was chairman of the Republican House campaign arm in 2018. “If he loses, it means they didn’t spend enough money and they lost an extra seat that they might not have otherwise.”

Mr. Maloney was elected chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee with a pitch that he had experience winning challenging districts, and he has insisted that he can both manage his race and be a strong party steward.

On Saturday, he sounded notes of bravado as he discussed Republican spending. “Do I like it?” he said. “No, I do not. But they are going to look foolish for having done it.”

But he also said that the spending from the Republican super PAC “changes the equation,” adding, “We’re going to do what it takes to hold the seat.” He said he had recused himself from the D.C.C.C.’s decision to buy $605,000 worth of ads for his race — a cost the committee is sharing with the Maloney campaign — though he acknowledged that the group’s staff members work for him.

Chris Taylor, a D.C.C.C. spokesman, said in a statement, “We are going to make investments that ensure Democrats hold our House majority.” Outside groups are beginning to engage as well.

Party strategists worry that passions over abortion rights have faded since Roe v. Wade was overturned, but interviews in liberal enclaves along the Hudson River showed that the issue still galvanizes Democrats and some independents.

“Choice is a big issue,” said Cynthia Kalman of Ossining, N.Y., an independent who said she was leaning toward Democrats.

But the district also includes more conservative constituencies.

Mr. Lawler and Mr. Maloney are directly competing for Hasidic Jewish voters who often vote, to varying degrees, as a bloc. Mr. Lawler represents portions of those communities in his Assembly district.

Mr. Maloney confirmed that he had invited the mayors of the Hasidic villages of New Square and Kaser, N.Y., to an event with Mr. Biden when he visited Poughkeepsie. He has also sought to link Mr. Lawler, who has worked as a political consultant, to an antisemitic video from the Rockland County Republican Party.

Mr. Lawler, a former lobbyist who has faced scrutiny over his business, has disavowed the video and said that he asked at the time that it be removed.

In an interview on Saturday, after he finished addressing — through a translator — a group of mostly immigrant Latina women at a community center, Mr. Lawler said he was focused on pocketbook and public safety issues that are urgent for many voters.

“I’ve always been my own person,” Mr. Lawler said. “People are frustrated. And it really — when I go out talking to voters — it really has nothing to do with party. It has everything to do with policy.”

Mr. Lawler, who was a 2016 Republican convention delegate for Donald J. Trump and voted for him in 2020, declined to say whether he wanted Mr. Trump to be the party’s 2024 nominee. Asked whether he believed Mr. Biden was elected legitimately, he replied, “Yes.”

In a state that strongly supports abortion rights, Mr. Maloney and his Democratic allies are working to disqualify Mr. Lawler over that issue in the eyes of voters. Mr. Lawler, who opposes abortion with some exceptions, has cast it as a state issue, saying he would not support a federal ban. Abortion rights are protected in New York but have been banned or significantly restricted in many other states.

“Across this district, the primary focus for voters is inflation and crime,” Mr. Lawler said, adding bluntly, “For those voters that abortion is their top issue, they’re never voting for me.”

There are signs that violent crime is down in the Hudson Valley. But across New York, debates over the state’s bail laws have been a point of contention. Republicans are betting that the subject of public safety remains potent, especially in districts, like this one, where there is a significant law enforcement community.

“I was unhappy with how the Democratic Party has been handling decisions with the inflation,” Steven Sanchez, 30, said as he worked at his family’s Colombian coffee shop in Ossining. Mr. Sanchez said he is typically a Democrat but is considering voting for Republicans.

“New York has become very dangerous,” he added. “Hopefully on the Republican Party, it will change.”

Mr. Rigger, the Democratic state official, said he was confident in the battle-tested Mr. Maloney. But he expressed concerns about what a tight New York race meant for the rest of the country.

“When the Republicans are investing in Sean Patrick Maloney’s district, pouring money in against him, I think, ‘Ugh — they must be doing really well elsewhere,’” he said.

Shane Goldmacher and Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting.