Your Election Day Guide

Perhaps the only certainty about today’s midterm elections — which will determine control of American government at all levels and shape democracy’s future — is that the polls will close tonight.

“Nobody actually knows what’s going to happen,” said my colleague Lisa Lerer, who covers politics.

Voter surveys suggest Republicans are favored to take back the House and potentially the Senate, but so many races are tossups that several outcomes are still possible. (Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, outlined four possible scenarios.)

Results will start trickling in around 6 p.m. Eastern, when the first polls close. But the full picture could take days or weeks to emerge. Some pivotal states, like Pennsylvania, can take days to count votes. And Georgia’s Senate race, which may decide control of the chamber, could go to a December runoff.

Today’s newsletter is a guide to what’s at stake and what to look for as results come in, including potential signposts for control of Congress.

The stakes

The midterm campaigns have focused largely on three issues: the rising cost of living, crime and abortion. “Everybody’s a little bit angry about something,” said my colleague Jennifer Medina, who’s in Nevada covering races there. “No matter which party you’re voting for, you’re angry about something.”

A divided federal government is unlikely to do much about those issues. More directly in play is each party’s issue agenda. If Democrats keep the House and the Senate, they will get more shots at passing legislative priorities such as tax increases on the wealthy and tax credits for families with children.

If Republicans take the House, they have suggested they may try to cut spending on Ukraine aid, health care and other federal programs, and would likely open investigations into Biden administration officials. If Republicans win the Senate as well, they will also have the final say over President Biden’s nominations to his administration and the courts.

Many Republicans are also likely to take their cues from Donald Trump, who teased a potentially imminent presidential campaign announcement last night and could disrupt his party’s congressional agenda with his own priorities.

Americans are also voting on 36 state governors and a host of state and local officials. These races could have a larger influence on some of the campaigns’ dominant issues; both abortion and criminal justice policy are largely set at the state and local levels. “Many Democrats running for governor have cast themselves as a bulwark when it comes to protecting abortion rights,” said my colleague Katie Glueck, who is covering Pennsylvania’s elections.

Voters will also decide whether to approve a range of ballot measures, including abortion-related proposals in five states, marijuana legalization in five others and Medicaid expansion in South Dakota.

The races could also help determine the future of American democracy. Numerous Republican nominees continue to question the results of the 2020 presidential election. Some are running for positions, like secretary of state, that directly oversee elections; others will have a say in certifying future voting results.

What to watch for

How will we know where the night is headed? There are some helpful signs to look for:

Tune in around 8 p.m. Eastern: Polling places in several key states will have closed by then, including in Georgia, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. (Here’s when polls close and when to expect results.) Watch Virginia and New Hampshire closely; both tend to count votes relatively quickly and could act as bellwethers for the rest of the nation.

Possible signs of a red wave: Democrats won House seats in Virginia’s three swing districts in 2018, during a blue wave. Today, these districts could signal where the rest of the country is going. If Republicans take back two or all three of these seats, their party will likely have a good night. If they take only one, the outcome could be close. And if Republicans lose all three, the polls might have overestimated them. (If you want to look up the results for these races tonight, they are the Second, Seventh and 10th House districts.)

Potential blue defense: In New Hampshire, Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, is up for re-election. Polls favor her by about 3.5 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight. If she does better than that, Democrats could have a good night. If she does worse, Democrats could underperform the polls. And if Hassan loses, the party is probably in trouble: If they’re not winning elections in which they’re favored, Democrats are probably doing worse in races that are expected to be close.

“If Democrats are losing there, it doesn’t speak well to Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin,” said my colleague Reid Epstein, who is covering the midterms.

The remaining key races: Four closely contested elections will likely be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. If Democrats lose even two, they probably will give up their narrow hold over the Senate. But we might not know the full results for these elections for days or even weeks.

For live updates and analysis tonight, check the Times website, which will have results pages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. (Here’s how The Times tabulates the vote counts.) And I’ll be back tomorrow with a rundown of the results we do have.

More on today’s elections

• Candidates have delivered their final pitches, stressing abortion, inflation and threats to democracy.

• Voter turnout is expected to be high. Here’s what you need to know today.

• Some Republicans, inspired by conspiracy theories, are preparing to challenge the results in Michigan.

• Officials are worried that lies will undermine voters’ confidence no matter who wins.

• An important question is whether candidates will accept results they dislike, the political scientist Lynn Vavreck writes in Times Opinion.

• Nancy Pelosi told CNN that the attack on her husband would affect her decision about whether to retire if Democrats lose control of the House.

THE LATEST NEWS

Climate

• “We are on a highway to climate hell,” the U.N. secretary general said at climate talks in Egypt.

• Today’s topics include holding companies accountable and what wealthier nations owe to the rest of the world.

• The top four emitters — China, the U.S., the European Union and India — aren’t meeting their climate goals.

• Switzerland is paying poorer countries to cut emissions and plans to take credit for the savings.

• Many of the most visited glaciers, including in Yosemite and Yellowstone, may disappear by 2050, the U.N. warned.

Other Big Stories

• Apple will make some of its iPhones in India for the first time, seeking to decrease its dependency on China.

• Some people have left Twitter for the alternative social app Mastodon since Elon Musk took over.

• Taking Paxlovid within a few days of contracting Covid cuts the risk of long-term symptoms, a study found.

• The Supreme Court appeared ready to make it easier to challenge federal agencies.

• Europeans are frustrated by inflation but still supportive of Ukraine.

Opinions

Fentanyl and other synthetics have made drug experimentation more dangerous than ever for kids, Maia Szalavitz argues.

Elon Musk wanted to go to Mars. Instead, he’s distracted by blue check marks, Eugene Robinson writes in The Washington Post.

MORNING READS

Design couple: They create unforgettable rooms.

Text fights: Can “fexting” help a marriage?

Please stop: The National Park Service asks you not to lick the psychedelic toads.

Advice from Wirecutter: Hand-wash your cashmere sweaters.

Lives Lived: The virologist and pediatrician Samuel Katz helped develop the measles vaccine, which has saved millions of lives around the world. He died at 95.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Monday night football: Baltimore won its third straight game with a 27-13 victory in New Orleans, maintaining its one-game lead in the A.F.C. North. The Ravens’ defense won the night with four sacks.

Trading rumors: Shohei Ohtani will remain in Los Angeles through the off-season, the Angels’ general manager Perry Mianasian said. Ohtani is set to be a free agent after the season.

New leadership: Indianapolis fired head coach Frank Reich yesterday and named Jeff Saturday, a former Colts offensive lineman with no professional or college coaching experience, to serve as interim.

Lucrative endorsements: Female college athletes are earning millions through social media. But some worry that their brand building is regressive, Kurt Streeter writes in The Times.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Pie season

It’s time to plan for Thanksgiving. Start with dessert: Genevieve Ko, a Times food writer, has nine new pie recipes.

Genevieve and her team began testing for the collection in August. “I ended up baking 49 pies total to finalize the nine (plus the crust!),” she said. Her goal was to evoke the classic pies of a diner — apple, pecan, pumpkin — updated with modern ingredients and techniques.

If you’re not sure where to start, try the caramel apple pie, which tastes like a carnival caramel apple atop a buttery cookie. “It doesn’t match any standard pie, but it eats like a pie and shows how holiday dishes can continue to evolve over time,” Genevieve said.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook

Any kind of pasta works with tuna, capers and scallions.

What to Read

In “Flight,” Lynn Steger Strong examines the complexity of being home for the holidays.

Where to Go

Spend the night in an underwater hotel.

Late Night

The hosts joked about Trump’s nickname for Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was excavated. Here is today’s puzzle.

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Phase out (three letters).

And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German

P.S. The Times’s Tracy Bennett will curate, program and test Wordle as its dedicated puzzle editor.

Here’s today’s front page.

“The Daily” is about Wisconsin’s elections.

This edition of The Morning is also available in Spanish, as part of our El Times newsletter. Read and share the translation here.

Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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