Russia’s attempt to seize the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine is being hampered by weather conditions, because “Russians don’t like fighting in the rain”, Western officials have said.
President Vladimir Putin has shifted his military effort towards the largely Russian-speaking Donbas area after failing to take Ukrainian capital Kyiv and losing 15,000 or more troops in a bitter war which has now stretched over two months.
But Western sources said that his forces are making “slow progress” in the region because of stiff resistance from Ukrainian defenders, a failure to learn from tactical mistakes in the early stages of the war and an inability to cope with adverse environmental and weather conditions as torrential downpours turn muddy fields into quagmires for Russian heavy armour.
“Russia has continued to build up forces in and around the Donbas,” said one official. “That’s an ongoing process and as they begin to try and prosecute targets, they are making minor gains.
“But when they come up against genuine military objectives, they are finding it difficult to overcome the staunch Ukrainian resistance and they are suffering losses.
“It’s not helped by the weather conditions at the moment in the Donbas, with heavy rain. The Russians don’t like to fight in the rain and that is slowing their progress.”
He added: “This is what we are seeing in practice. They are not advancing in in heavy rain.
“It’s also surprising that they have the ability to operate off the roads, and have done since the start of the conflict, but have chosen not to. It speaks to a bit of a miscalculation on their part in terms of how they employ their tactics, but also perhaps how they train to fight.”
The Russian forces were displaying “poor tactical awareness of the environment” and continuing difficulties with logistical supply lines, which are vulnerable to Ukrainian special forces operating behind enemy lines, said the official.
As a consequence, the reconstitution of forces moved from the northern front around Kyiv to join the assault in the east is taking “longer than expected”.
The Russians have not yet been able to achieve their aim of encircling Ukrainian troops in the area, said one official.
And he added: “Where they have encircled Ukrainian forces previously, it has not prevented the Ukrainians from continuing to fight – and for some period of time. We’ve seen that in Mariupol.
”Even when encircled, the Ukrainians have still managed to resupply their forces for a surprising length of time. So, even with supply routes cut, anticipate that Ukrainians will continue to resist.”
The UK has already contributed about £2bn in support for Ukraine, including £450m of military support, and Western officials said that Britain and its allies were now “stepping up” support for what they expect to be a “long haul” resistance to Russia’s incursion into the Donbas, requiring heavy artillery and armoured vehicle capacity.
Welcoming the recent German announcement of heavy weapons, one Western official said: “We do think that Ukrainian need has changed as the focus of the new Russian campaign has shifted into the Donbas, where some of its advantages in artillery are more more easily applied.
“The Ukrainian need for for greater range and more armoured vehicles is is absolutely critical. The more countries there are providing military support is great news.”
In the longer term, the loss of 15,000 or more troops killed in action and vast amounts of weaponry, coupled with the impact of Western sanctions, is thought likely to constrain Putin’s ability to use military muscle to threaten Russia’s neighbours in future.
“Russia will not be able to support the same level of threat that it does at this time,” said one Western official.
“The Russians have lost experienced and elite forces. They’ve expended vast amounts of munitions, including advanced weapons.
”Whatever happens next, they are going to take time to rebuild that expertise, the number of personnel and the equipment they need to pose a threat of any significant nature to others in the future.”
