Boris Johnson’s hopes of a return to Downing Street were today dealt a severe blow as influential Eurosceptic Steve Baker came out for rival Rishi Sunak, warning that victory for the former PM would be “a guaranteed disaster”.
But there was a boost for Johnson as cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi – who served him as chancellor over the summer – offered his backing.
Mr Zahawi said Mr Johnson had learned from the mistakes which forced him out of office earlier this year, and was now “the one to lead us to victory and prosperity”.
But Mr Baker told Sky News that a second Johnson premiership would “collapse” within months as Tory MPs would not be willing to vote to save him from an inquiry into alleged Partygate lies.
The Northern Ireland minister said it would be for the best if Mr Johnson did “something big and statesmanlike” and delayed any future bid for the Conservative leadership until after the Commons Privileges Committee inquiry is concluded.
Mr Johnson’s hopes of securing the 100 MPs’ nominations needed to get onto the ballot paper in the race to succeed Liz Truss may rest on members of the eurosceptic European Research Group, who meet on Monday to discuss their preferences.
Former ERG chair Mr Baker’s support for Sunak is likely to be influential on members’ decision, with Leave-backing Sunak showing that he is able to command support from the right of the party.
Senior Johnson supporter Chris Heaton-Harris – Mr Baker’s boss in the Northern Ireland Office – insisted that the former PM already has the 100 nominations he needs, but said some were unable to make their support known because of the roles they have within the party and government.
Mr Heaton-Harris confirmed that Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak held talks on Saturday evening, but was unable to give details of what they discussed.
“We have the numbers,” he told Sky News. “This is a time when we need a big player like Boris in our politics.”
Mr Zahawi’s announcement brought Johnson’s declared supporters to 59.
The chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster tweeted: “When I was chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like.
“He was contrite and honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No 10 and the country better.
“With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory and prosperity.”
But Mr Baker told Sky’s Sophy Ridge that a Johnson government would “implode” in short order as Tory MPs are asked to vote in the Commons on the report into whether he misled parliament over lockdown-breaching parties in 10 Downing Street.
“There will be a large number of Conservatives who will refuse to – as they see it – lay down their integrity to save him, and at that point his premiership will collapse,” said Mr Baker.
“Sixty-two MPs resigned from his government over the Pincher affair, which was an issue of conduct and character. Those same MPs are not now going to go like lambs through the division lobby.
“His premiership will collapse, it’s a guaranteed nailed-on failure. We cannot allow it.”
With Conservatives looking at defeat at the next election, many MPs will be thinking about their future prospects after leaving parliament and will not want to see their reputations trashed by voting to save Johnson, said Mr Baker.
Urging Mr Johnson to pull out of the contest, Mr Baker said: “It would be best if Boris did something big and statesmanlike.
“If he wants to come back as prime minister, he would need to do it after this privilege decision issue is settled.
“I think he would make an amazing chairman of the party. Everybody know he’s got huge character and charisma, he lights up any room he’s in.
“As chairman he can lead the campaign … but what we can’t do is have a prime minister in circumstances where he is bound to implode, taking down the whole government with him.”
Mr Heaton-Harris said he did not believe there would be any vote in the Commons over Partygate, as this would only be required if the committee found him to be “in error”.
He said that Mr Johnson was “unbelievably popular with the public” and has a “mandate with the British people” from the 2019 general election.
“This is a man who does know how to govern, who can govern and given the chance would happily govern again,” he said.
Mr Heaton-Harris said he beleived Jeremy Hunt’s plan for the economy is “probably the best one in town”, but was unable to confirm whether Mr Johnson would invite him to stay on as chancellor if he wins.
Meanwhile, a leading supporter of the only declared candidate, Penny Mordaunt, insisted that she would reach the 100 nomination threshold by the deadline of 2pm on Monday.
Former deputy prime minister Damian Green told Ridge he was “confident Penny will get over the line tomorrow”.
And asked if she would accept a senior role in either Sunak or Johnson’s cabinet in return for pulling out ahead of Monday’s vote, Mr Green replied: “She is in it to win.”
Ms Mordaunt herself told BBC1’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that reports she had been in talks with Johnson over pulling out in return for a top cabinet post were “absolutely false”.
The leader of the Commons said she would aim to deliver both financial stability and low taxes as prime minister, and “regretted” Ms Truss’s mini-Budget which caused turmoil in the markets last month.
She confirmed she had been in talks with Mr Hunt and said it was “incredibly important” that he sticks to the timetable of unveiling his tax-and-spend plans on 31 October.
But she refused to confirm whether this meant that she was committed to tax rises and spending cuts if she becomes prime minister.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer denounced the Tory leadership contest as a “ridiculous chaotic circus” and repeated his call for an immediate election.
Close Johnson ally Sir James Duddridge said the former PM had made clear to supporters that he will not attempt to block the Privileges Committee inquiry, following speculation that he might tell Tory MPs to halt it with a vote in parliament.
In an early-morning tweet, Sir James said: “Boris on good form at the 8am meeting with MPs. In a first for Boris he was rather smartly dressed!
“He made it very clear the privileges committee must and will be allowed to get on with their process. He will co-operate fully. Great to see the boss reach out to the other camps .”
