Boris Johnson is heading for a trouncing in crucial London local elections in May, according to a new poll giving Labour a massive 30-point lead.
The Tories are failing to gain a bounce in support from the war in Ukraine, the survey suggests – with worries over a deepening cost of living crisis foremost in voters’ minds.
At the last borough council elections in London in 2018, Labour beat the Conservatives by 15 points, but that margin has now doubled according to the research by Deltapoll.
Keir Starmer’s party leads in the capital by 54 per cent to 24 per cent – compared with a victory by 44 per cent to 29 per cent four years ago.
Crucially, the “totemic” Tory-held London boroughs of Wandsworth and Westminster are expected to be the key to the election battles on 5 May, which could still determine Mr Johnson’s fate.
The Ukraine war has made it highly unlikely that Conservative MPs will topple him over the Partygate scandal – even if he is fined for breaking his own Covid rules, when the police investigation concludes.
However, the prime minister remains vulnerable to evidence at the ballot box that voters have turned decisively against his premiership.
Worryingly for the Conservatives, National Insurance payments, energy bills and council tax will all rise sharply next month – one month before polling day.
A spring statement next month gives Rishi Sunak the opportunity to ease the pain, but the chancellor is not expected to announce further expensive help for households just yet.
The poll was carried out on behalf of the London Communications Agency, whose board director, Jenna Goldberg, said: “From this poll, Labour would appear to be approaching May’s elections in the capital from a position of strength.”
London’s voters are able to “blame the government for the cost of living crisis”, she said, even as ministers attempt to point to global factors.
The poll, of 1,026 Londoners, carried out online between 3 and 7 March, found 52 per cent pointed to the cost of living as a major cause of concern.
This was far ahead of other issues such as housing (26 per cent), the Ukraine war (26 per cent), crime (25 per cent) and inflation (23 per cent).
Wandsworth, in south London, has been Tory-controlled since 1978, shortly before Margaret Thatcher entered Downing Street, but is vulnerable to both changing voter opinion and boundary changes.
The Conservatives have run Westminster since 1964, but face an “uphill fight” to hang onto it, local elections expert Rob Hayward has said.
The Deltapoll puts the Liberal Democrats on just 9 per cent in London, with the Greens on 5 per cent.
On 5 May, elections will be held for 146 councils in England, all 32 Scottish councils, all 22 Welsh councils and seven directly elected mayoralties.
