Liz Truss’s government is hurtling towards another winter of discontent with moves for coordinated industrial action expected to pass this week.
It comes as the true scale of industrial action is revealed for the first time, with up to one in 16 employees – 1.9 million people – set to strike or be balloted for industrial action in the coming months, an analysis by The Independent has found.
Essential public sector staff such as teachers, nurses and junior doctors could all down tools as they fight for pay rises in the face of soaring inflation.
Battle lines between employers, including the government, and the unions are expected to be drawn this week as the Trades Union Congress (TUC) holds its annual meeting in Brighton.
A motion calling for it to coordinate industrial action by striking unions this winter is thought likely to pass on Wednesday. The move would fall short of a “general strike”, but would call on the leadership to help ensure walkouts are synchronised or staggered in order to have the greatest impact.
Ahead of the conference, Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the TUC, insisted the ball was in the prime minister’s court, saying the government had only itself to blame if the UK sees large-scale strike action in the months ahead.
“The Conservatives should be working with unions to deal with Britain’s cost of living emergency,” she said. “But instead, ministers want to introduce new laws to make it harder for workers to protect their pay and conditions.
“If there is large-scale strike action over the months ahead the government only has itself to blame. Rather than getting around the table, it is picking a fight with unions and working people.”
Asked if the country was getting close to a coordinated strike, Unite leader Sharon Graham told the Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme: “Yes. I said yesterday I think we are getting close to one million people going on strike.”
Last week, the new health secretary Thérèse Coffee said nursing staff could leave “if they want to” over poor pay and conditions as she made it clear ministers would not improve the pay offer. The governor of the Bank of England has also called for workers to show restraint in their demands for wage rises as inflation continues to rise.
The TUC does not collate official figures on the number of workers striking or being balloted across the country. But an analysis of the plans of individual unions lays bare the scale of the challenge Ms Truss faces.
The National Education Union (NEU) is balloting 250,000 members, with the union saying it was moved to act “following the announcement of a below-inflation pay increase for teachers in England and Wales”. The Royal College of Nursing is understood to be balloting 300,000 nurses over their public sector pay offer, while the Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) will balloting around 160,000 civil servants for “strike action over pay, pensions, jobs and redundancy terms”.
In addition, the British Medical Association (BMA) is understood to be asking 50,000 junior doctors for their appetite to take action.
The total, including posties and other workers, comes to between 1.7 and 1.9 million, according to senior union sources.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show there were a record 29.7 million people in work in July 2022, meaning one in every 16 employees is affected. The figure is thought to be the highest since 2011 when an estimated 800,000 workers joined action over public sector pensions.
The Winter of Discontent was the name given to the period in late 1978 and early 1979 characterised by widespread strikes by private and public sector unions demanding pay rises. But the true figure could be much higher by the end of winter, as more workers baulk at below-inflation pay offers.
Gary Smith, the general secretary of the GMB union, said his members were “taking on bosses and winning”.
But he added: “People are hurting. The brutal cost of living crisis and the trashing of the economy by the Tories means millions of working people – NHS workers, carers, shop staff and so many more – are struggling to get by. And, under this government, it’s only going to get worse.”
Ms O’Grady added: “Nobody takes strike action lightly. But UK workers are suffering the longest squeeze on their living standards in more than 200 years.
“Many of those being balloted for action this autumn and winter are key workers who got us through the pandemic. After more than a decade of having their wages held down, the very least they deserve is a decent pay rise.”
Unions say the previous government under Boris Johnson has done little to head off a winter of strikes. Many reported no official meetings with ministers between Mr Johnson’s last reshuffle in early July and his departure from Downing Street.
A government spokesperson said it recognised the pressures people were facing with the rising cost of living but it urged parties involved in strike talks to settle disputes.
“The government will do whatever it can to keep our economy moving and minimise disruption so that the public can get on with their daily lives,” they added.
