Under a fifth of Tory members believe the most likely outcome at the next general election is a Commons majority if Rishi Sunak succeeds Boris Johnson in No 10, according to a new poll.
Two-and-a-half years after the outgoing prime minister won the Tories’ biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher, the survey by YouGov found the Conservative faithful were doubtful of a major electoral success.
The figures for Mr Sunak – the former chancellor – are most stark, with just 19 per cent of those polled suggesting the “most likely” result after the next election would be a Conservative majority in the Commons.
Thirty-three per cent thought the most likely scenario was a hung parliament with a Tory-led government while 23 opted for a Labour-led government and 14 per cent for a Labour majority – the first in over a decade.
Respondents to the YouGov poll forThe Times suggested that Ms Truss had a better chance of securing a Conservative majority at the ballot box, with 39 per cent saying this was most likely scenario.
However, many were unconvinced, with 27 per cent saying the next election was most likely to lead to a hung parliament with a Conservative-led government if Ms Truss succeeds Mr Johnson in four weeks’ time.
Thirteen per cent opted for a hung parliament with a Labour-led government while eight per cent thought a Labour majority was most likely.
The finding comes as the former chancellor faces an uphill battle to win momentum in the race against Liz Truss, who according to the same survey by YouGov has a huge 34-point lead over Mr Sunak among the party faithful.
Almost 40% of members said a Tory majority under Ms Truss was the ‘most likely’ scenario at the next election
The polling suggested 60 per cent of members intend to vote for Ms Truss — compared with 26 per cent for Mr Sunak — and that almost nine in ten had made up their mind before ballots had landed on members’ doorsteps.
The survey, however, was conducted before the foreign secretary was forced into a humiliating U-turn on Tuesday over proposals to cut public sector wages outside London and the southeast.
Backers of Mr Sunak have compared the episode to Theresa May’s infamous social care proposals – the so-called “dementia tax” – that the former prime minister was forced to abandon during the 2017 general election campaign.
But a campaign source in Ms Truss’s team said the poll showed the cabinet minister has “great moment and Liz’s message of economic growth, low taxes and her ability to deliver from day one is resonating with members.
“We are not complacent and will continue to fight for every single vote. Liz is out across the country meeting as many members as possible and showing why she is the candidate who will deliver on our 2019 manifesto promises, unleash the full opportunities of Brexit and unite the party,” they added.
On Wednesday, the two contenders are set to face their third members’ hustings event in the final run-off stage of the Tory leadership contest, with just days to go until members receive their ballots.
