The end of a Republican advantage.
Republicans have been more successful than Democrats since 2010 at gerrymandering congressional districts to their advantage. But the Republican advantage may be about to fade because of a few court cases.
In Alabama, the U.S. Supreme Court forced officials to redraw the map to add one majority Black (and therefore Democratic-leaning) district. In New York, Democrats are trying to redraw the map to flip several seats. In Florida, Georgia and Louisiana, other legal challenges could help Democrats.
If everything goes Democrats’ way, roughly 10 House seats could become meaningfully easier to win. Next year, the party needs to net only five seats to reclaim the House. New York alone could switch six seats from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat.
Not every court case is hurting Republicans. In North Carolina, a ruling from the state’s Supreme Court will allow Republican lawmakers to redraw the map to move several seats their way. In South Carolina, liberal groups have taken the state’s Republican gerrymander to the U.S. Supreme Court; but the court’s conservative majority appears likely to side with Republicans, based on oral arguments last week.
Still, the overall picture looks promising for Democrats. “The House map is pretty equitable now, certainly more so than it was 10 years ago,” David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told me. If the cases go in Democrats’ favor, he added, “it could make the House map even a little bit bluer on balance than a random map would be.”
In 2022, Republicans won about 51 percent of the popular vote in House elections nationwide — and about 51 percent of House seats. (My colleague Nate Cohn broke down those results.)
Swinging back
In some ways, the recent gerrymandering developments are the pendulum swinging back.
States typically update congressional maps once a decade, after each U.S. census. In 2010, Republicans swept state elections just in time for the redrawing of maps. They took full advantage, drawing congressional districts in their favor.
After the 2020 census, Republicans remained in power in more states than Democrats. But after the gerrymanders of the 2010s, Republicans could not do much more to skew the maps.
Meanwhile, legal challenges from liberal groups diminished the Republican gerrymanders. Some states, like Michigan, embraced independent redistricting commissions that drew more balanced maps. Democrats also used their control of some state governments, including in Illinois and Oregon, to aggressively redraw maps.
“Republicans are not the only ones who gerrymander,” Claire Wofford, a political scientist at the College of Charleston, told me.
Of course, Democrats will still need to win elections next year. The balance of gerrymandering is likely to determine control of the House only if the national vote is close.
What’s next
Here are three major stories to watch in coming months:
New York: The case moving through the courts would likely affect six seats, the most in any current dispute. A lower court already ruled in Democrats’ favor, and the state’s highest court is set to hear the case in November. Republicans now hold 11 of the state’s 26 congressional seats.
North Carolina: Republicans are set to redraw the map in the next month, and could flip three or four seats in their favor. Republicans currently hold seven of the state’s 14 congressional seats.
Time: If Republicans stall legal challenges for long enough, the maps may not change before the 2024 election. “There is more potential upside for Democrats right now than for Republicans,” said Stephen Wolf, an elections writer at Daily Kos, “but there are too many unresolved court cases to say yet what will likely happen.”
More on 2024
Donald Trump has entered October with nearly as much campaign cash as the rest of the Republican field combined.
Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia, a debt-ridden coal magnate who has switched parties twice, is running for U.S. senate.
Polls show few voters are aware of President Biden’s record on climate issues. One advocacy group plans to spend big to change that.
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
The Latest
Israel and Hamas denied agreeing to a humanitarian cease-fire, and Israel continued to strike Gaza overnight.
Western diplomats are negotiating to get emergency aid into Gaza and foreigners out through Egypt.
Many Gazans are evacuating south as Israel prepares to invade the enclave. Hospital workers in the north said they weren’t able to move patients.
Israel said Hamas had abducted at least 199 people, more than initially thought.
Fighting has continued on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, and the U.S. is worried about a broader regional conflict. See maps of the fighting.
Israelis are planning for a longer war despite having lost trust in their government and its intelligence services because of the Hamas attacks.
International Response
President Biden warned Israel not to reoccupy Gaza.
A man in Chicago stabbed a 6-year-old boy to death because he was Muslim, the police said. The F.B.I. is tracking increased threats to Jewish and Muslim Americans.
“Kidnapped”: In cities around the world, posters highlight the hostages abducted by Hamas.
Many evangelical Christians are supporting Israel.
Powerful donors, like Wall Street financiers, are pressuring U.S. schools to condemn student criticism of Israel.
People upset about the attack by Hamas are leaving bad reviews on a Palestinian restaurant in Brooklyn.
MORE NEWS
Politics
Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio is the current nominee for House speaker, but he’s short of the votes needed to be elected. Read what to expect in the speaker race this week.
Donald Trump’s lawyers and federal prosecutors will argue today over whether a gag order should be imposed on him in a federal election case.
Afghan Earthquakes
Two more powerful earthquakes struck northwestern Afghanistan, after recent quakes killed more than 1,000 people.
Read about a man’s search for his son after the first of the tremors leveled his village.
South American Elections
A 35-year-old heir to a banana empire won Ecuador’s presidential election.
The front-runner to be Argentina’s next president once called Pope Francis a “filthy leftist.” Some Argentines aren’t happy about it.
More International News
Satellite images suggest North Korea may be sending weapons to Russia, The Washington Post reports.
Dariush Mehrjui, an Iranian film pioneer, and his wife were killed in their home near Tehran.
Business
The pharmacy chain Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy as it deals with billions in debt and more than a thousand lawsuits over opioid prescriptions.
Goodwill is figuring out e-commerce to compete with sites like Etsy’s Depop.
Other Big Stories
China won an expensive contract to build an airport in Nepal, extending its regional influence. But the project left Nepal in debt.
The Covid lab-leak theory has led to a lack of funding for studying dangerous pathogens, scientists say.
Suzanne Somers, known for playing Chrissy Snow on the sitcom “Three’s Company,” died at 76.
The American Museum of Natural History will remove human bones from public display. Some belonged to Indigenous and enslaved people.
Opinions
Mayor Eric Adams of New York has asked a court to suspend the city’s mandate to shelter migrants. But even when the migrant crisis fades, a housing crisis will remain, Mara Gay writes.
The central cause of Gaza’s misery is Hamas, and Hamas deserve the blame for the deaths in this war, Bret Stephens writes.
Here are columns by Nicholas Kristof on Gaza and Ross Douthat on Ukraine and Israel.
MORNING READS
“I want to be forgiven”: Inside a meeting of the Minnesota Board of Pardons, where supplicants have 10 minutes to make their case.
The Piccirillis: How six stone-carving Italian brothers shaped the story of New York through sculpture.
Waiting: With much of Hollywood on strike, many actors have slid back into restaurant work.
Metropolitan Diary: Worst. Whale watch. Ever.
Lives Lived: Rudy Perez was a pioneer of postmodern dance who challenged notions of what dance is, and isn’t, through minimalist choreography. He died at 93.
SPORTS
Sunday Night Football: The Buffalo Bills narrowly defeated the New York Giants, 14-9. The Bills’ running back, Damien Harris, sustained a neck injury in the second quarter.
Around the N.F.L.: The league’s two unbeaten teams both lost. The San Francisco 49ers missed a last-minute field goal in their 19-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns, and the Philadelphia Eagles were stifled by the New York Jets defense, losing 20-14. Here are takeaways from the weekend.
M.L.B. playoffs: The Texas Rangers are still undefeated in the postseason after beating defending-champions the Houston Astros, 2-0, in Game 1 of the A.L.C.S.
W.N.B.A. finals: The New York Liberty fended off the Las Vegas Aces, 87-73, in Game 3 of the league finals, forcing a Game 4.
ARTS AND IDEAS
New beginning: The National Museum of Women in the Arts in Washington, D.C., is set to reopen this week after a two-year, nearly $68 million renovation. The social context has shifted since the museum first opened in 1987, and women today are better represented in museums surveys and gallery shows. Is the museum, then, still relevant?
“People in the art world always think we’re achieving parity faster than we are,” said Susan Fisher Sterling, the museum’s director since 2008. “We’re not even close to there.”
More on culture
Madonna opened her global Celebration Tour — a spectacle of her hits across four decades — at a 20,000-capacity arena in London.
“She understands her power”: Read a review from the critic Wesley Morris of Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” movie. (The Washington Post shows how much she has made from the tour.)
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Elevate a roasted vegetable salad with creamy coconut dressing.
Wear cowboy boots without feeling like you’re in a costume.
Bake on an inexpensive and durable baking sheet.
Make smoothies in a blender that has been Wirecutter’s top pick for nearly a decade.
Take our news quiz.
GAMES
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was gravity.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German
Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
Source: Elections - nytimes.com
