How Much Do Voters Really Care About Biden’s Age?

Many Americans say they do not want President Biden to run for re-election, and his age is a big reason. In an NBC News poll released last weekend, 70 percent of adults said Mr. Biden, who is 80, should not run again. Asked if age was a factor, 69 percent of them said yes. Other recent surveys detect a similar lack of enthusiasm, with many voters — including around half of Democrats — calling him too old to seek the White House again.

Taken at face value, it’s easy to imagine that his age could undermine the re-election campaign he formally announced on Tuesday. Mr. Biden, already the oldest president in U.S. history, would be 86 at the end of his second term. Republicans have amplified video of his verbal miscues — he also has a stutter — and suggested they reflect cognitive decline. Mr. Biden’s age is a frequent punchline on late-night television.

But a review of the polling and academic research paints a surprisingly mixed picture. With the obvious caveat that a serious age-related gaffe or health crisis could change things, there are good reasons to think that Biden’s age may matter less than some polls suggest.

1. Theory vs. practice

Americans often express concern about aging leaders, but that hasn’t stopped them from voting for older candidates.

In a recent USA Today/Suffolk University survey, half of Americans said that the ideal age for a president was between 51 and 65. Another quarter said they preferred candidates to be 50 or younger. But five of the last eight presidential nominees, including Mr. Biden in 2020 and Donald J. Trump (twice), have been well over 65. In several cases, voters chose them over much younger primary opponents. And dozens of senators or representatives over 80 have been elected in the past century.

Concerns over age are also more nuanced than they may first appear. While most voters favor age limits for politicians, they disagree over what that limit should be. Many voters also say older lawmakers bring valuable experience and shouldn’t be barred from serving if they remain in good health.

That doesn’t mean Americans who say they’re concerned about age are lying. Their voting choices may reflect the available options. “There’s nothing inconsistent about people saying no one in their 80s should be president and then voting for someone in their 80s if that’s the only choice they’re given,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

It’s also not clear that age is a disadvantage for older candidates. Older leaders tend to have lower approval ratings than younger ones, according to a 2022 study co-authored by Damon Roberts, a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Colorado Boulder. But in his research, voters expressed relatively equal openness to supporting hypothetical candidates who were 23, 50 or 77.

There are also just a lot of old politicians in office these days. “I don’t think that Biden in particular looks super out of place in the political scene right now,” Mr. Roberts said.

Still, no one Mr. Biden’s age has ever sought re-election to the presidency, and other experts doubt he will blend in so easily. “The presidency is fundamentally different,” Mr. Ayres said. “The visibility is so much greater.”

2. Party above all

Polls do suggest that voters discern bigger issues for Mr. Biden than past older candidates (although pollsters seem to have asked about past candidates’ ages less often). But in a polarized era, party loyalty is far likelier to determine voters’ choice.

“In the final analysis, we’re going to vote for the ‘D’ or the ‘R,’ ” said Karlyn Bowman, an emeritus fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies public opinion polling. “Partisan loyalty is so strong at this point that that will trump the other concerns.”

Perceptions of Mr. Biden’s fitness also track with partisanship. Republicans — who are unlikely to back any Democratic candidate, no matter how spry — are the most apt to say that Mr. Biden is too old to run. His age also hasn’t stopped the vast majority of Democrats from deeming his presidency a success (though younger Democrats have expressed less eagerness to see Mr. Biden run again).

“People are thinking about the election through the lens of other things,” said Margie Omero, a principal at GBAO, a Democratic polling firm. “Biden’s record, Trump’s record, what they see as the future of the country, legislative accomplishments, the fight for abortion rights.”

Mr. Biden’s age may ultimately matter most to swing voters who are open to backing either party, giving them outsize clout to pick the winner. “It’s a very small slice of the population now, but still, it’s a very consequential one,” Ms. Bowman said.

3. Just a number

That brings us to whether Mr. Biden will be able to influence voters’ views about his fitness for office. In February, Ms. Omero and her colleagues at Navigator Research, a Democratic polling firm, recruited a small group of swing voters to watch Mr. Biden’s State of the Union address. Before the speech, just 35 percent of them described him as “up for the job of president.” After the address — which featured an impromptu back-and-forth with congressional Republicans over Social Security and Medicare — 55 percent rated him that way.

Mr. Biden could also try to dodge the issue by continuing to limit his public appearances. Mr. Ayres worked on the 1996 Senate re-election campaign for Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, then 93, at a time when he was reportedly experiencing cognitive decline. “We tried to keep him as invisible as possible,” Mr. Ayres said.

Past presidents, including Dwight Eisenhower and Mr. Reagan, have overcome questions about their age to win re-election decisively.

But Mr. Biden is older than they were during their re-election campaigns. “The issue is not so much what he is like today,” Mr. Ayres said. “The issue is what he would be like in 2028.” The president may have to bank on voters overlooking any longer-term concerns about his age.

4. The Trump factor

Mr. Trump, who will be 78 on Election Day, appears best positioned to win the 2024 Republican primary. He leads his closest potential competitor — Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 44 — in national polls and endorsements from other Republicans.

Though the similar ages of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump could make the issue a wash, for now voters say they’re more concerned about Mr. Biden’s age. And if Mr. Trump aggressively attacks Mr. Biden’s fitness, he may draw more scrutiny to it than a younger but more restrained challenger could.

But it’s also a message Mr. Trump has used before (see: 2020’s “Sleepy Joe”) in a matchup he didn’t win. At some point, all the talk about Mr. Biden’s age may start to feel to voters like old hat.