Is the Electoral College Becoming Fairer?

The Electoral College has been very kind to Republicans in the 21st century. George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, and Donald Trump did the same in 2016.

But over the past few years the Republican advantage in the Electoral College seems to have shrunk, as Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, points out in his newsletter. Republicans are no longer faring significantly better in the states likely to decide the presidential election — like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than they are nationwide. Instead, a 2024 race between Biden and Trump looks extremely close, with a tiny lead for Biden both nationally and in the swing states.

What’s going on here? Democrats have lost some ground in comfortably blue states like New York while gaining some in swing states like Pennsylvania. “At this point,” Nate writes, “another large Trump Electoral College advantage cannot be assumed.”

In today’s newsletter, we’ll examine the main reasons for the trends.

An unexpected shift

One surprising feature of American politics since Trump’s 2016 victory has been the decline in some forms of polarization. Many political analysts (including me) assumed that Trump’s presidency would aggravate racial gaps in voting, given Trump’s embrace of white nationalism. We were wrong. Instead, the racial gaps have narrowed.

White voters have moved toward the Democratic Party, while Asian, Black and Hispanic voters have moved to the right. Voters of color still lean clearly Democratic, and white voters clearly Republican, but the shifts are big enough to matter. White voters have helped Democrats win recent elections in the Midwest and Georgia, while voters of color have helped Republicans keep their hold on Florida and Texas.

Nobody has come up with a comprehensive explanation, but there are some plausible theories. In much of the world, left-leaning parties are increasingly attractive to college graduates. The U.S. — where the Republican Party denies climate change and spreads conspiracy theories — is a good example. And college graduates are disproportionately white.

On the flip side, polls suggest that some voters of color have been influenced by economic trends. After years of weak performance, the economy fared better while Trump was president. (How much credit he deserves is another matter.) Covid interrupted that boom, but some voters evidently appreciated the Republican emphasis on reopening the economy. In an analysis of the Republicans’ unexpectedly strong 2020 showing in Texas, Equis Research, a research firm that focuses on Latinos, cited voters’ frustration with lockdowns.

Social issues probably play a role, too. Many voters of color are moderate on these issues. The most progressive segment of the American public, by contrast, is disproportionately white, the Pew Research Center has documented. As the progressive left has become bolder — on gender, immigration, policing and other subjects — it has alienated some of the voters of color for whom it claims to speak.

Whatever the full explanation, the decline in racial polarization has diminished the Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College. That advantage has existed partly because swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are heavily white, Nate notes.

Blue states, less blue

In addition to race, polarization has declined in another way: Some blue states have become a little less blue, while some once-reddish swing states have turned blueish.

In both types of places, Nate suggests, voters are unhappy with what they consider the excesses of their own party. In swing states, the Republican Party has damaged itself by trying to ban abortion and spreading lies about the 2020 election.

In solidly blue states, however, an overturned election or abortion ban is implausible. Instead, some voters have apparently grown dissatisfied with Democratic politicians who have been in charge while other problems have mounted. Crime remains elevated. Cities are struggling to handle a surge of migrants. Education issues, including new admission policies for magnet high schools, have hurt the party in some places.

“Moderate voters in a blue state — say around Portland, Ore. — have no need to fear whether their state’s conservatives will enact new restrictions on transgender rights or abortion rights, but they might wonder whether the left has gone too far pursuing equity in public schools,” Nate writes. “They might increasingly harbor doubts about progressive attitudes on drugs, the homeless and crime, as visible drug use among the homeless in Portland becomes national news.”

If one voter in solidly blue Oregon flips to the Republicans and another voter in swing-state Arizona moves to the Democrats, the Republicans’ Electoral College edge shrinks.

Nate emphasizes that these trends are not guaranteed to continue. Perhaps the Republicans’ edge will re-emerge by 2024. Or perhaps the election will be so close that even a tiny Republican edge will decide the outcome. For now, though, a key feature of recent American politics has receded.

Nate’s newsletter, called The Tilt, is free for Times subscribers, and you can sign up here.

Related: Gov. Glenn Youngkin hopes his more moderate plans to restrict abortion will help other Republicans win in Virginia this November.

THE LATEST NEWS

Morocco Earthquake

• Four days after the earthquake, many people in mountain villages are still waiting for help. They are digging bodies out of rubble with their hands.

• When rescuers finally arrived in one village, residents were angry about the pace of aid efforts. Read the story of one man searching for his daughter.

Politics

• The House returns today after weeks in recess. Republicans’ disagreements over spending could shut down the government this month.

• Trump’s lawyers asked the judge in his federal trial on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election to recuse herself, accusing her of bias.

• Biden is planning an expensive ad campaign to reassure voters about his age.

• The president stopped at an Alaska military base on his way back from Vietnam to mark the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Putin-Kim Meeting

• Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, will make a rare trip outside the country to meet with Vladimir Putin, Russia confirmed.

• North Korea could provide Russia with ammunition it needs for the war in Ukraine. In return, the North wants food aid and advanced technology.

• The Kim family’s preferred way to travel is a slow, heavy bulletproof train.

International

• Floods washed away neighborhoods in Libya, killing more than 300 people. More than 5,000 are missing.

• China is spreading disinformation about the Maui wildfires using artificial intelligence, claiming the U.S. government started the fires.

• In Turkey, rescuers saved an American cave expert who fell sick thousands of feet underground.

• Israel’s highest court is about to start reviewing a law that limits its own power. Israelis have been protesting about the law for months, and now Americans are joining them.

Business

• In an antitrust lawsuit against Google, the government is expected to borrow arguments from its landmark case against Microsoft 25 years ago.

• Disney and Charter ended their standoff, restoring ABC, ESPN and other channels to around 15 million households.

• J.M. Smucker, the jelly maker, is buying the snack cake brand Hostess for more than $5 billion.

• TikTok, which often popularizes products, is introducing an in-app shop for users in the U.S.

Other Big Stories

• The F.D.A. approved a new Covid vaccine formulated for more recent variants. Shots could be available within days.

• The killer who broke out of a Pennsylvania prison previously fled into the wilderness in Brazil to escape a murder investigation.

• Restaurants and unions in California agreed to raise pay to $20 an hour.

• Montana’s renowned rainbow and brown trout are disappearing as waters warm.

Opinions

Chile’s coup in 1973 ended a peaceful revolution. Now the coup’s supporters want to separate it from the torture and killings that followed, Ariel Dorfman writes.

Here’s a column by Michelle Goldberg on minority rule in American democracy.

MORNING READS

Michelin restaurants: Does the quest for stars generate excellence, or sameness?

Girl dinner and hot girl walks: Online, the terms describe a mind-set more than an age or even a gender.

Cute fossil: Meet a 25-million-year-old koala.

Marriage: In the U.S., the bridal tradition of taking a husband’s last name remains strong.

Lives Lived: Ian Wilmut led the team that cloned Dolly the sheep in the 1990s, a feat that shocked the world. Wilmut died at 79.

SPORTS

Aaron Rodgers: The Jets quarterback injured his left ankle early in a game against the Bills. His team went on to win in overtime.

Michigan State: After a sexual harassment allegation, head coach Mel Tucker defended his intimate conversation, calling it mutual.

Rest rule: The N.B.A. is considering stricter rules for teams that sit star players in prime-time matchups.

ARTS AND IDEAS

What’s for dinner? Figuring out nightly meals is hard enough; in September, with school back in session and families busy again, it can feel daunting. Emily Weinstein, the editor of NYT Cooking, put together 100 recipes that can relieve some of the stress.

Many take only 30 minutes. “No matter how old you are, or where you are in life, September has a way of sweeping us all,” Emily writes.

More on culture

• Sarah Burton announced she is departing as creative director of the fashion label Alexander McQueen. She took over after its founder died in 2010.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Jelly concord grapes.

Make a ceviche while the weather is still hot.

Brighten a room with a floor lamp.

Organize your pantry to work for you, not Instagram.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was cowgirl.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. “We can, we have, and we will become better”: The president of Duke University, Vincent Price, responds to The Times’s College Access Index.

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