An analysis of a new set of New York Times / Siena College polls.
When Joe Biden ran for president four years ago, he ran as the electability candidate — a broadly appealing, moderate Democrat from Scranton, Pa., who could defeat Donald Trump.
There aren’t many signs of his old electoral strength in a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls of the six states likely to decide the presidency. Trump leads Biden in five of the six states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — which would likely be enough to give him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Biden leads in the sixth state, Wisconsin.
Trump leads by at least four percentage points in each of the other five states:
The striking results seem to be more a reflection of Biden’s weakness than Trump’s strength. Trump is just as unpopular as he was when he lost the election three years ago, if not slightly more so.
Instead, the change is the public’s view of Biden. During his time in office, attitudes toward him have turned decidedly negative. In the last election, voters judged him to be more likable than Trump, to have a better temperament and to have a more appealing personality. Those advantages have largely disappeared.
Instead, voters say they are concerned about Biden’s handling of the economy and about his age. More than 70 percent of registered voters in the battlegrounds agree with the statement that Biden is “just too old to be an effective president,” up from around 30 percent in the run-up to the last election.
Biden appears to be especially weak among young, Black and Hispanic voters. In a major departure from recent electoral trends, he and Trump are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-old voters, even though young voters have tended to back Democrats by a wide margin in recent cycles.
Among Black voters, more than 90 percent of whom usually back Democrats, Biden leads only 71-22. He holds only 50 percent of Hispanic voters across the battlegrounds, down from more than 60 percent in the last cycle.
A year to go
With one year to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for the race to change. In contrast with four years ago, the poll finds a disengaged, disaffected and dissatisfied electorate, setting the stage for a potentially volatile campaign. And historically, incumbent presidents have trailed at this stage of the race, only to rally their former supporters once the campaign is underway.
If there’s good news for Biden, it’s that his path to re-election runs through traditionally Democratic constituencies, like young, Black and Hispanic voters. The poll suggests that these voters remain open to supporting a Democrat against Trump. It’s still possible that a polarizing campaign — focused on issues like abortion and democracy, which divide the electorate along familiar and favorable lines for Biden — will allow him to reassemble and re-energize the coalition of voters who brought him to the White House.
Nonetheless, the poll suggests that Biden’s path will be challenging. Nearly half of registered voters (49 percent) in the battleground states say there’s “almost no chance” they’ll support him, an indication of the depth of their dissatisfaction.
At this early stage, I’m not sure how seriously to take traditionally Democratic-leaning voters who say there’s “almost no chance” they’ll back Mr. Biden. As the race gets going, attitudes might change quickly. But one year out, Biden faces big challenges to his re-election.
For more: If you’re interested in a deeper look, you can read my full analysis — including the potentially decisive role of voters who say they would vote for Kamala Harris, but not Biden. And here is my colleague Shane Goldmacher’s news article on the polls.
NEWS
Israel-Hamas War
Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, made an unannounced visit to the West Bank to meet with the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.
Thousands of demonstrators in Tel Aviv called on the Israeli government to do more to rescue hostages in Gaza.
Israel used at least two 2,000-pound bombs — the second-largest in its arsenal — in its airstrikes on Jabaliya, according to experts and Times analysis.
A Biden administration official accused Hamas of delaying efforts to get foreign nationals out of Gaza by trying to put its wounded fighters on departure lists.
Wrecked buildings and long lines of infantry: A Times reporter was among a small group of journalists who accompanied Israeli military leaders into northern Gaza.
Politics
“Like winning the lottery”: Conservative Christians are celebrating the unexpected rise of Mike Johnson, the House speaker.
The F.B.I. is investigating whether Eric Adams, New York City’s mayor, received disguised foreign campaign contributions.
International
Ukrainians are becoming increasingly pessimistic about a quick victory, polls say.
A campaign to legalize divorce in the Philippines argues that it’s an issue of basic human rights.
Nuns tackled and gave chase to climate protesters in France, in an escalation of a long-running clash over a proposed megachurch.
Other Big Stories
A decade after it began talking about deliveries by drone, Amazon is finally making some. Customers are underwhelmed.
The actors’ union said it was reviewing a final offer by Hollywood studios to resolve a monthslong strike.
Workers in San Francisco have almost finished installing more than three miles of steel netting along the Golden Gate Bridge. Officials call it a “suicide deterrent system.”
FROM OPINION
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s brand of conservatism in Virginia has an optimism that other Republicans lack, Michelle Cottle writes.
The U.S. needs open communication with Russia and China to prevent another nuclear arms race, The Times’s editorial board writes.
Here’s a column by Ross Douthat on liberal academia.
The Sunday question: Could regulation have prevented Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud?
The former crypto billionaire’s conviction is a cautionary tale that shows “regulation is better than criminal law at preventing harm,” Bloomberg’s Noah Feldman writes. But while regulation might have stopped Bankman-Fried from embezzling funds, it can’t “prevent someone who believes they’re uncatchable from doing wrong,” Ana Paula Pereira writes for Cointelegraph.
MORNING READS
Wool week: Every year, knitters from around the world descend on a far-flung Scottish archipelago.
Fall back: Many Americans bemoan the end of daylight saving time. Meet the ones who love it.
Vows: As they supported each other through health crises, their relationship — and a “love plant” — flourished.
Lives Lived: David Kirke was a flamboyant thrill-seeker who performed what is widely acknowledged as the first modern bungee jump. He died at 78.
TALK | FROM THE TIMES MAGAZINE
Back in January, I spoke with the computer scientist, podcaster and author Cal Newport about why the digital workplace can be such a drag.
When I mentioned to a few folks that I was talking to you and that you wrote about work and technology, every one of them said they had problems focusing in front of their computers. So for people who can’t help cycling through their open tabs every five minutes, what’s your biggest piece of advice?
The critical mind-set shift is understanding that even minor context shifts are productivity poison. We used to multitask, and then research came out and said you can’t literally multitask. Your brain can’t have your inbox open next to the memo you’re writing while you’re also on the phone. So if you have to work on something that’s cognitively demanding, the rule has to be zero context shifts during that period.
You’re working on a book about slow productivity. What is that?
Traditional economic productivity largely requires people working toward a singular measurable output with a transparent process. None of that works in knowledge work. So we fell back to a proxy for productivity, which is visible activity. If I can see you doing work, it’s better than I can’t see you doing work. Slow productivity is all about identifying alternatives.
Isn’t a large part of the reason that so many of us feel a need to look busy that our bosses require it?
So the term “knowledge work” was coined in 1959 by Peter Drucker in “Landmarks of Tomorrow.” Drucker is saying that knowledge workers need to manage themselves. Managers just need to set them up to succeed. But then what do you manage? Visible activity as a proxy for productivity was the solution. But what’s tricky about it is that a manager can’t just change. We’re kind of in a mess that we can’t change on a dime.
Read more of the interview here.
More from the magazine
For people in Bilozerka, Ukraine, the Russian invasion began a cat-and-mouse game of collaboration and resistance.
If childhood obesity is an “epidemic,” how far should doctors go to treat it? Should bariatric surgery be an option?
Read the full issue.
BOOKS
Not invited: In “Fierce Ambition,” Jennet Conant recounts how the superstar war reporter Marguerite Higgins worked hard, late and dirty to thrive in a world rigged against women.
Our editors’ picks: “Mapping the Darkness,” about the turbulent history of sleep science, and eight other books.
Times best sellers: “The Woman in Me,” Britney Spears’s memoir, takes the top spot in its debut week on the hardcover nonfiction list.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Open your curtains by tapping an app or talking to a smart speaker.
Invest in a quality pen.
See Southern California beyond the freeway.
THE WEEK AHEAD
What to Watch For
The New York City Marathon is today. Follow the race here.
Donald Trump is expected to testify tomorrow in New York’s civil fraud case against him.
China and the U.S. finish their weekend climate talks tomorrow.
State and local U.S. elections are on Tuesday.
What to Cook This Week
In her Five Weeknight Dishes newsletter, Emily Weinstein suggests making meatballs, her go-to comfort food. Other ideas: one-pot chicken and rice with ginger and crisp gnocchi with brussels sprouts.
NOW TIME TO PLAY
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was bookmobile.
Can you put eight historical events — including the first known sundials, Mayan team sports and Morgan Freeman’s breakthrough role — in chronological order? Take this week’s Flashback quiz.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.
Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.
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Source: Elections - nytimes.com
