Rishi Sunak is under pressure from a divided Tory party over the Northern Ireland protocol, with Brexiteers urging him to defy the EU and moderates asking him to sign a compromise deal.
London and Brussels are close to ending the long-running protocol row and reports suggest an agreement on easing checks and reducing the role of European judges could be announced as early as next week.
However, the prime minister is yet to sign off on a final deal and faces an uphill battle to win over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Tory hardliners in the European Research Group (ERG).
MPs in the ERG are angry at the outline of a possible deal, and want a showdown vote in the Commons on any compromise with Brussels. But Mr Sunak-backing moderates are desperate to avoid any return to divisive parliamentary battles over Brexit.
A technical agreement to ease customs and food and animal health checks is thought to be all but done, based on British proposals for a “green” lane between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
UK negotiators have reportedly conceded that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will remain the ultimate arbiter of any protocol disputes – though there will be a stronger role for Northern Irish courts.
Senior Tory MP David Jones, ERG deputy chair, told The Independent: “If this is the basis of a deal then it will not work. We need to get rid of the protocol altogether because it’s undermining the Good Friday Agreement.”
With the ERG’s DUP allies also expected to oppose a compromise, Mr Jones added: “Any deal would be completely futile and embarrassing if it’s unacceptable to the unionist community because the Northern Ireland institutions won’t be restored.”
Despite the prospect of Tory rebellion in the Commons, Sir Keir Starmer has indicated that Labour MPs would be whipped to give Mr Sunak “political cover” for any final agreement.
Mr Jones added: “If there were to be a vote on it in the Commons, it would have to rely on Labour vote, which would be problematic for the prime minister. It would be foolish for the government to get itself into that situation.”
Foreign secretary James Cleverly with NI secretary Chris Heaton-Harris
However, many Tories want to draw a line under the long-running row. Simon Hoare, chair of the Northern Ireland affairs select committee, told The Independent: “I’m very, very hopeful of a deal. I think it looks like the return of grown-ups doing politics in a sensible way.”
The senior Tory added: “It’s looks like we’ve been in the tunnel of final talks for weeks. All negotiations have to involve compromise. Let’s not mess around – let’s just get the bloody thing sorted and done.”
It remains unclear whether a vote in parliament will be necessary. Brexit experts have told The Independent that a deal could be forged without redrafting the protocol through a new, separate document from the UK-EU joint committee which would agree on how to interpret the existing agreement.
Mr Hoare said: “I also hope that this can be tweaked by the joint committee and doesn’t have to be dealt with in parliament. If it comes to it, Labour have signalled they will back it, so there will be no challenge to the prime minister.”
Another Tory MP, who backed Mr Sunak for the leadership, also said they hoped a deal would not go to a Commons vote. “We don’t need to go back to the big divisions on Brexit in parliament. We need to move on,” they said.
No 10 did not deny reports a deal was expected soon but stressed nothing had been agreed. “We are currently engaging in scoping talks with the EU to find solutions to these problems,” said a government spokesperson.
But The Independent understands that senior figures in the DUP and the ERG, who have been meeting ministers to urge against rushing into a deal, have been told that the two sides are not yet close to the agreement.
Two former ERG figures, Chris Heaton-Harris and Steve Baker, are now ministers at the Northern Ireland Office working towards a deal. But their old allies remain unhappy at the prospect of any role for the ECJ.
“The European Court of Justice is important – but it’s not the be-all and end-all,” said Mr Jones. “The principal problem is that Northern Ireland will remain subject to EU rules on trade in goods and taxation on a dynamic basis without any input from its elected representatives.”
It comes as Brexiteers expressed their anger at a “secret” cross-party gathering on how to address Brexit failures and other foreign policy issues held at the Ditchley Park retreat in Oxfordshire last week.
Levelling up secretary Michael Gove was said to be in attendance alongside Labour’s shadow foreign secretary David Lammy for discussions headed under the title: “How can we make Brexit work better with our neighbours in Europe?”
One Brexiteer said it was a bad sign that “mostly ardent Europhiles” were meeting together. But its significance was played down by sources with knowledge of the meeting. One familiar with the event said it was a “quite dull conference” on foreign affairs, not just on ways to improve ties with the EU.
No 10 said on Monday that Mr Sunak had not been aware in advance of the cross-party gathering at the retreat. A Labour source said: “This was a bog standard Ditchley Park conference. Their events are always cross-party.”
