Being uncertain about our earlier poll results but finding almost the same numbers the next time around.
At the end of our last wave of post-debate battleground polls, there were two state poll results that didn’t seem to fit the rest.
One was Pennsylvania: Kamala Harris led by four percentage points, making it her best result in the battlegrounds. It was our only state poll conducted immediately after the debate, when her supporters might have been especially excited to respond to a poll.
The other was Arizona: Donald J. Trump led by five points, making it his best result among the battlegrounds. Even stranger, it was a huge swing from our previous poll of the state, which Vice President Harris had led by five points.
In both cases, it seemed possible that another New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll would yield a significantly different result. With that in mind, we decided to take an additional measure of Arizona and Pennsylvania before our final polls at the end of the month.
The result? Essentially the same as our prior polls.
Ms. Harris leads by four points in Pennsylvania, just as she did immediately after the final debate.
Mr. Trump leads by six points in Arizona, about the same as the five-point lead he held three weeks ago.
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Source: Elections - nytimes.com
