Can Trump Really Slam the Brakes on Electric Vehicles?

Donald J. Trump is crystal clear about his disdain for electric vehicles. The former president has falsely claimed electric cars don’t work, promised to shred President Biden’s policies that encourage E.V. manufacturing and sales, and has said he would slap a “100 percent tariff” on electric cars imported from Mexico if he retakes the White House.

“You’re not going to be able to sell those cars,” he has said.

But analysts say that even if Mr. Trump is elected and ends federal policies that support electric vehicles, by the time that happens, the market may have reached a level where it would keep growing without government help.

A record 1.2 million Americans bought electric vehicles last year, making up 7.6 percent of new car sales and moving the cars and trucks from the margin to the mainstream of the American auto market. Analysts project that will climb to 10 percent this year, which researchers say could signal a tipping point for rapid, widespread E.V. adoption.

While a Trump presidency couldn’t slam the brakes on the E.V. transition, it could throw enough sand in the gears to slow it down. And that might have significant consequences for the fight to stop global warming.

President Biden placed electric vehicles at the heart of his climate agenda because scientists say that a rapid switch from gasoline-powered cars to electric versions is one of the most effective ways to slow the carbon dioxide emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. Last year was the hottest in recorded history and scientists say the world is on track to heat up even more, to the point where parts of the planet will be unlivable.