Inflation Concerns Loom as Trumponomics Revs Up

Trump puts inflation on the agenda

The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer, but it never really went away. It’s front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.

An important inflation measure comes out at 10 a.m. Eastern: the Personal Consumption Expenditures index report. It’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and one of the last big data releases of the year that the central bank will consider as it ponders when to lower borrowing costs further. (Next week’s jobs report is another.)

Donald Trump’s latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be. Since the president-elect this week vowed to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico — the United States’ three biggest trade partners — analysts have been gaming out the potential impact. Economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.

A worst-case scenario from Deutsche Bank economists: that core P.C.E. next year would jump by an additional 1.1 percentage points if the Trump tariffs were fully enacted.

Is the tariff talk an opening salvo for trade negotiations, or a fait accompli? That uncertainty can be felt in the $28 trillion market for U.S. Treasury notes and bonds: Yields hit a four-month high this month, though they are down on Wednesday. Yields climb when prices fall, and have been especially sensitive to concerns that fiscal policy could fuel inflation.

Here’s what to watch for in Wednesday’s P.C.E.:

• Core P.C.E., which excludes volatile food and food prices, is forecast to come in at 2.8 percent on an annualized basis. That would be 0.29 percent above September’s reading.

• Such a rise would represent a second straight month of inflation trending higher, putting the level further above the Fed’s 2 percent target. The report “should show another ‘bump in the road’ on the path to 2 percent inflation,” Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, wrote in an investor note this week.

• The culprits are thought to be shelter inflation — especially house prices, with mortgage rates soaring — and used car prices, as well as higher portfolio management fees.

Futures traders on Wednesday were pricing in roughly 60 percent odds of a Fed rate cut next month. But their calculations have been volatile in recent months, and a surprisingly hot number could cause a shift in thinking once again.