What to Know: How Israel Could Retaliate Against Iran

Iran and Israel avoided direct confrontation for years, fighting a shadow war of secret sabotage and assassinations. But the two countries are now moving closer to open conflict, after the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon this week and Tehran’s ballistic missile barrage on Israel, its second in less than six months.

Israel seems prepared to strike Iran directly, in a more vigorous and public way than it has before. Iran has a number of sensitive targets, including oil production sites, military bases and nuclear sites.

Here’s an overview of what an Israeli attack could look like.

Iran’s oil industry

Iran’s oil and gas facilities are mostly clustered in the west of the country, near Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. A significant number of facilities are off Iran’s coast or on islands, such as its main oil export terminal on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf.

Damaging oil facilities could harm Iran’s already frail economy and disrupt global oil markets a month before the U.S. elections. Iran produces about three million barrels of oil per day, or about 3 percent of world supply. Its biggest customer is China. Sanctions have reduced Iran’s importance to the global market, but an attack could nonetheless affect prices.

When asked on Thursday if he would support a strike by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure, President Biden said the possibility was “in discussion” — an offhand remark that sent the price of oil higher. Brent crude, the international benchmark, had a weekly gain of more than 8 percent, the largest increase in two years.