Your Senate Election Guide as Democrats and Republicans Race for Control

All year, control of the Senate has seemed like Republicans’ to lose. They are practically certain to pick up Senator Joe Manchin’s West Virginia Senate seat, and they need just one more of seven competitive seats held by Democrats or an independent to claim the majority.

With Senator Jon Tester, a farmer and a third-term Democrat, trailing his Republican opponent in Montana, a state that’s gotten redder and redder, Republicans are closing in on their goal of wresting back the Democrats’ narrow majority. That would turbocharge Donald Trump’s ability to install his allies in political and judicial roles if he were to win the presidency, and it would stymie Vice President Kamala Harris’s agenda right out of the gate if she won.

But this has been a year of political surprises — and there are several playing out across the Senate map right now.

Democrats led many of those competitive races for much of the year, but some have tightened in recent weeks. Republican-held seats in Texas and Nebraska (yes, Nebraska) have become surprisingly competitive. And some candidates are subtly shifting their messages.

To explain the state of play, I called my colleagues Carl Hulse and Annie Karni, our indomitable congressional correspondents who are covering the two toughest Senate re-election battles on the map, Montana and Ohio. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Jess Bidgood: Annie and Carl, welcome back to the newsletter! Where are you?

Carl Hulse: I am in Montana, where I’ve been for a week, chasing around Tim Sheehy, the Republican running to unseat Jon Tester, and watching a gazillion ads on TV. It’s incessant. I feel for these people. They’ve been bombarded.