The row engulfing Labour over the future Diane Abbott and a purge of leftwingers in the party has not made a dent in popular support according to the latest weekly tracker poll.
The survey by Techne UK for The Independent sees Labour still on 45 percent with a huge 24 point lead over the Tories. There is some comfort though for the beleaguered Rishi Sunak who sees his party recover two points from last week going up from 19 percent to 21 percent.
In a further boost for the Tories, Reform UK’s vote has falled by two points from 14 percent to 12 percent in a week. this follows Mr Sunak announcing his plans to reintroduce National Service for 18-year-old school leavers, although pollsters believe this will have made little difference in voting intentions.
But overall the poll of 1,630 voters is grim reading for the Conservatives who are still facing a massive defeat. And the continued strong showing for Labour was reflected in former Tory MP Mark Logan’s defection to Sir Keir Starmer’s party tonight.
If this were the result of the general election on 4 July then Electoral Calculus predicts that the Tories would be reduced to a shocking 46 seats, less than a third of their all time worst result of 156 in 1906. Labour would have a massive 374 majority.
The Lib Dems are still on 11 percent but on course to win more than 50 seats and the Greens are up one to 6 percent.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “One week into the general election our first tracker poll proper of the campaign brings forward immediately very interesting insights for the main political parties.
“With Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party holding firm at 45 percent of national vote share Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives grow by 2 points of national vote share to 21 percent. This perhaps unexpected growth in polling support for the Conservatives comes at the direct cost of Reform UK who drop 2 points in national vote share, now down to 12 percent.
“It is clear from this first week of the campaign that some Reform UK voters have switched back directly to the Conservatives. This is strictly linked to the fact that last week, after the shocking news of Sunak’s resignation, Conservative voters were very confused and scared by a situation of uncertainty.
“However, the key issue remains for the Conservatives that they are being squeezed on both sides: by Labour on one side and Reform UK on the other side. Thinking about Reform UK in particular, that have to fight against another rightwing party. This means that the voters overlap in the same political arena and this means growing difficulties in an already challenging moment.”
She added: “Overall considered, with the Labour lead a dominant 24 points still things remain very difficult for Rishi Sunak and his party.”
There had been hope in Tory circles that the chaos surrounding Labour and the row over Diane Abbott’s future and an apparent purge of the left would see support ebb away.
However, it may be that the impact of the anger has not yet been registered by the public.
The Tories are still struggling to win back their voters from 2019 with only 40 percent saying they would back them again while 16 percent have gone to Reform, 12 percent to Labour and 15 percent are uncertain.
Added to that they still trail Labour in every age group including pensioners where their triple lock plus promise has not managed to hit Labour’s lead of 36 percent to 28 percent. Among younger voters of 18 to 34 Labour 55 percent to 15 percent after the National Service announcement.
