Labour is on course for a 50-100 seat majority, a former cabinet secretary and Blair adviser has predicted, as Brexit voters turn to Sir Keir Starmer.
Voters in Brexit-backing coastal seats have swung back behind the Labour Party after supporting Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, new polling shows.
Lord O’Donnell, who ran the civil service under Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron, said Labour’s majority after this year’s election could be up to 100 seats.
“If you look at the evidence the polling says there’s been a consistent Labour lead of 18 points, roughly, for a long time now,” he told the BBC’s Today podcast.
Keir Starmer is on course for a majority of up to 100 seats, Lord O’Donnell has said
“I’m in the 50-100 seat majority if I had to put on it,” he added.
But Lord O’Donnell urged his civil service colleagues to “prepare for all possible outcomes”.
“Do not assume… one of the reasons I think the prime minister is deciding to wait is that things could change,” he said.
His comments came as a poll by think tank Labour Together showed that coastal voters back Labour over the Tories by a margin of 44 per cent to 24 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent.
Coastal communities, those within five miles of the sea, have disproportionately backed winning causes over the last 40 years, with three-quarters supporting Margaret Thatcher in 1987 before Tony Blair doubled Labour’s number of seaside seats in 1997.
Most coastal seats supported Brexit and around 70 per cent voted Conservative in 2019.
That position now appears to have reversed again, with Labour enjoying a net favourability rating of 7 per cent among coastal voters, while the Tories have slumped to minus 32 per cent.
The results of the survey represent a boost for Labour in an area recently described by centre-right think tank Onward as “the forgotten battleground that could decide the next election”.
Josh Williams, director of strategy at Labour Together, said: “Where the coast goes, the country follows.
“Take a look at the polls now and the story is clear: the tide is turning, and the Tories are at risk of being swept away.”
Addressing the general election, expected in October this year, Lord O’Donnell said: “Three factors that are difficult are, how much tactical voting will there be? I think quite a lot and that helps Labour. How much will Reform take away from the Tories? That helps Labour. And Scotland – clearly the collapse of the SNP helps Labour.”
Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are trailing Labour by around 20 points in the polls
His intervention is the latest dire warning for the Tories, with Rishi Sunak’s party trailing Labour by around 20 points in the polls.
Lord O’Donnell also took a swipe at the UK’s elections, saying First Past the Post voting system means Britain is “not a very good example of democracy”.
“You can get a lot of votes and not get anywhere… if you have a more proportional system he [Nigel Farage] who got his four million votes [in 2015] would deliver him something more [than one constituency],” he added.
