The Tories have hit their joint lowest standing in the weekly tracker poll as Nigel Farage’s Reform takes its biggest share yet and the aftermath of Rishi Sunak’s D-Day gaffe takes effect.
The prime minister apologised for skipping part of the commemorations to do an election interview for ITV last week but the first weekly tracker poll taken by Techne UK after the fiasco reveals the depth of public anger.
According to Techne’s survey of 1,636 voters this week:
- The Tories have equalled Liz Truss’s unpopularity with just 19 per cent.
- They have hit their all-time low in the share of 2019 Tory voters with just 37 per cent.
- Reform under Nigel Farage has hit a new high on 16 per cent.
- For the first time ever more 2016 Leave voters support Reform (26 per cent) than the Tories (23 per cent).
- Apathy among voters has worsened in the past week with 22 per cent (up two) saying they will not vote.
Techne UK’s survey also saw Labour drop one point to 43 per cent but maintain its lead of 24 points over the Conservatives. The Lib Dem share was up one point to 11 per cent and the Greens stayed the same on 6 per cent.
If this poll result was matched in a general election, the prediction website Electoral Calculus, which excludes local factors, suggests that the Conservatives would be reduced to 38 seats, Reform would make a breakthrough into parliament with three seats and Labour would have a “supermajority” of 374 with more than 500 seats.
But the Techne poll was not the worst one for the Tories with YouGov suggesting that Reform has now passed them with 19 percent to the Conservatives’ 18 percent with Labour on 37 percent. It led Nigel Farage to claim that a Tory vote was “wasted” and Reform “are the opposition now”.
The results were also reflected in a Redfield and Wilton poll that came out this evening putting the Tories on a “worse than Truss” 18 per cent and Reform just one point behind on 17 per cent. Labour has a 24-point lead on 42 per cent.
The terrible poll results came after the Tory leadership appeared to run up the white flag this week and warn voters against giving Sir Keir Starmer a “supermajority”.
But the Techne results make dire reading for the Conservatives.
Labour now leads in every age, social, economic and education category. But the most painful statistics are the loss of core voters for the Tories.
Mr Sunak was challenged in this week’s debate on Sky News by a former Tory chairperson who said she did not know how to vote at the election because of the D-Day fiasco and Partygate – a confrontation that appears to be symbolic of a wider problem.
Of those who voted Conservative in 2019 only 37 per cent would stick with the party now, 22 per cent have defected to Reform and 11 per cent to Labour. Another 23 per cent will not vote or are uncertain.
The desertion of pro-Brexit voters who supported Leave in 2016 is also a blow for Mr Sunak. Reform now has 26 per cent of them ahead of the Tories on 23 per cent while 15 per cent now back Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.
The Techne poll was taken in the 48 hours after Mr Sunak unveiled the Conservative manifesto with an added pledge to end national insurance contributions for the self employed. But the glitzy launch at Silverstone Formula 1 race course – and its contents = appear to have failed to impress voters.
Techne UK’s chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “With the general election in full swing our regular tracker poll released today of Westminster voting intentions makes for further grim reading for Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party.
“For Sunak’s party this is the joint lowest vote share we have given and as such maintains a 24-point lead for Labour. This dominant Labour lead is further exacerbated by Nigel Farage’s campaign continuing to cut through. Reform UK are up another point in national vote share to 16 per cent, just three points behind the Conservatives.
“This means that Reform and Conservatives play on the same ground and this increases very much the difficulties for Conservatives, probably not prepared to battle on different fronts.
“They should take a strong position deciding to fight against only one competitor; spreading their effort against both Labour and Reform in such a short period of time could only lead to nullify the efforts. If this could lead to a ‘cross-over’ between the Conservatives and Reform UK, it’s difficult to say: always remember that, for a voter, the real decision comes between home and the polling station!”
