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Precipitation intensity
Very light
Heavy
Extreme
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[–><!–>In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, predicted that this would be an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms. Last year, there were 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes became what the Hurricane Center calls “major,” or Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Hurricane Beryl was one of two Category 5 hurricanes last year, and it set records for the earliest point in a season that a storm had grown so big. In contrast, this year was one of the slowest starts to a season in 20 years.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Experts think it is probable that a major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. this season. Climate experts have warned intense storms like these are more likely to occur, with more rapid intensification likely in a warming world.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Last year was also one of the most costly for hurricanes in the United States. Hurricanes Helene and Milton combined caused about $113 billion in damages and more than 250 deaths. This May, the Trump administration said it would no longer maintain a database of so-called billion-dollar disasters.–><!–>
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[–><!–>The Trump administration has slashed the number of employees at many of the agencies traditionally responsible for planning for and responding to natural disasters, including NOAA, the Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Climate change is also affecting the amount of rain that storms can produce. In a warming world, the air can hold more moisture, which means a named storm can hold and produce more rainfall, likeHurricane Harvey did in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.–><!–>
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Sources and notes
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[–><!–>Tracking map Tracking data is from the National Hurricane Center. The map shows probabilities of at least 5 percent. The forecast is for up to five days, with that time span starting up to three hours before the reported time that the storm reaches its latest location. Wind speed probability data is not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Intensity chart Best track and forecast path are from the National Hurricane Center.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Wind arrivals table Arrival times are generated from a New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data. Geographic locations use data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth. Time zones are based on Google. The table shows predicted arrival times of sustained, damaging winds of 58 m.p.h. or more for select cities with a chance of such winds reaching them. If damaging winds reach a location, there is no more than a 10 percent chance that they will arrive before the “earliest reasonable” time and a 50 percent chance they will arrive before the “most likely” time.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Radar map Radar imagery is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Iowa State University. These mosaics are generated by combining individual radar stations that comprise the NEXRAD network.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Storm surge map Storm surge data is from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts only include the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The actual areas that could become flooded may differ from the areas shown on this map. This map accounts for tides, but not waves and not flooding caused by rainfall. The map also includes intertidal areas, which routinely flood during typical high tides.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Rip currents map Rip current data is from the National Hurricane Center. Rip current risk shown is not always associated with active tropical cyclones.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Satellite map Imagery is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Japanese Meteorological Agency via the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Precipitation map Data for multi-day forecasts or observed rainfall totals are from the National Weather Service. The 1-day forecast is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.–><!–>
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[–><!–>Historical map Storm paths are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HURDAT database. Only storms with names that formed after the year 2000 and that are within 50 miles of the potential landfall location are shown.–><!–>
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