The UK and its Nato allies must upgrade their military capabilities if the coalition of the willing in Ukraine is to be a successful deterrence against Vladimir Putin, a former military chief has warned.
In a damning report for the Policy Exchange thinktank, Sir Jock Stirrup, a former Royal Air Force commander and chief of defence staff, said the UK has been hamstrung by an “outdated nuclear doctrine” and needs to recognise that deterrence relies “on a spectrum of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons themselves”.
It recommends that the UK and its allies restart large-scale military exercises with a nuclear element to demonstrate that there could be a “slide” into full nuclear war as a “cognitive deterrence” to Russia, China and others.
It comes as Sir Keir Starmer announced that the UK will deploy peacekeeping troops alongside France to Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed with Russia.
The prime minister, who ducked making a statement to the Commons on the plan, has refused to say how many armed forces personnel could be sent to the wartorn country and conceded that MPs would get to vote on the deployment first. According to reports, the UK force could be as few as 7,500 troops.
However, Sir Keir has been warned by Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, and ex-defence secretary Gavin Williamson that he would need at least 50,000 troops in Ukraine to deter Putin from attacking again, with the UK army currently totalling fewer than 80,000.
The international situation heated up on Wednesday with the seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker, Bella 1, which was linked to Venezuela, by the US with the help of the UK.
Posting on social media, the US European Command confirmed the seizure and said it was due to “violations of US sanctions”, following a two-week pursuit across the Atlantic Ocean, in a move that could see Donald Trump risk a dispute with Mr Putin.
Sir Jock’s report – named The Deterrence Theory of Sir Michael Quinlan – was co-authored with the co-ordinator of Policy Exchange’s Nuclear Enterprise Commission, Daniel Skeffington.
They claimed: “It is clear that western powers failed to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine because they failed to exercise deterrence in terms that are meaningful to its leaders.”
They noted that the UK had become reliant on submarine-based nuclear deterrents, but warned: “Deterrence works as a ‘package’: in deterrence theory there is no clear divide between nuclear and conventional weapons. Deterrence, therefore, rests on a spectrum of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons themselves.”
They added: “Deterrence cannot be based simply on possessing capabilities; it must be accompanied by the demonstrable ability and will to use them.”
Policy Exchange’s paper also argues that Britain’s intellectual capacity for thinking about nuclear weapons, which was once at the forefront of allied deterrence doctrine, has significantly degraded since 1989. As the security environment has steadily worsened, this has created gaps which have been exploited by the UK’s adversaries, it said.
The paper noted: “In the last twenty years, of course, the evidence of President Putin’s aggressive expansionist intent and the rapid development of China’s nuclear capabilities have brought us full circle to the consideration of deterrence between states and alliances.”
The broad concerns outlined in the report come as the UK and European allies are reconsidering their defence footprints and expenditure.
Sir Keir has set an ambition of spending 3.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence and security, and urged other allies to follow suit, with Donald Trump making it clear that the US expects Europe to pay for its own defence in the future.
Threats by Mr Trump to take Greenland from Denmark, with the US refusing to rule out using military action to seize the territory, as well as the situation in Ukraine, have forced European leaders to reconsider their reliance on the US for defence.
However, concerns are being raised over the UK and France’s capabilities to guarantee peace in Ukraine.
Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe between 2011 and 2014, said allied forces would need at least 50,000 troops in Ukraine to deter an attack from Russia.
Meanwhile, former defence secretary Gavin Williamson warned that a token number would not be enough and said that the UK would need an equivalent of “the army of the Rhine” of more than 40,000 stationed in West Germany after the Second World War as a Cold War deterrent.
Downing Street sources said that they expect other countries to get involved, with Germany already suggesting it too will sign up to the coalition of the willing force.
Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk
